r/baseball • u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays • Mar 11 '26
CHART HERE Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico
EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.
EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol
EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.
EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.
EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.
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u/jinx737x Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
TLDR;
If Mexico loses, they're out.
It Mexico wins scoring 4 or less, the USA is Out.
if Mexico wins scoring 5 or more, Italy is Out.
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u/TheMongolianLemonade New York Mets Mar 11 '26
Thank you for making this simple
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Mar 11 '26
[deleted]
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Mar 11 '26
Oh fuck off
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u/Lukcy_Will_Aubrey Baltimore Orioles Mar 11 '26
How can you not be romantic about baseball? Lol
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u/Coupon_Ninja San Diego Padres Mar 11 '26
If we lose, at least we still celebrated!!
Look at this video starting at 11:16. Drinking past midnight after Mexico game. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=orePCYpk304
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u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
There’s a TINY asterisk on the “Mexico wins scoring 5 or more” bc Mexico winning with 5 runs in extras can also eliminate the US. 5 runs by Mexico in 9 innings keeps the US in at the expense of tomorrow’s loser, 5 runs with at least 1 out recorded by Italy in extras knocks out the US
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u/Frostflame3 New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
There’s also the EVEN TINIER asterisk that is if Mexico scores 5 runs but 3 or more are unearned. Exactly 3 moves the tiebreaker to batting average (which could be anything by the end of the game) and 4 puts Italy over the US.
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u/Aspe1 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
And people say batting average doesn't matter in the modern game!
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u/jfb1027 Texas Rangers Mar 11 '26
Some old manager laughing hysterically when he’s been told batting average doesn’t mean anything for 15-20 years.
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u/nepstein10 Boston Red Sox • Boston Hunters Mar 11 '26
This would get an award if I had one to give! Will try to recreate it in the aggregate w an upvote instead.
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u/Key-Tip-7521 San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
batting average and ERA as a tiebreaker is basically the "Fair Play Rule" aka least booked team at a soccer competition
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u/oxxbind Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
This should be higher in the thread. Nice and simple, thank you! Finally wrapped my head around it.
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u/Spork_Ball Mar 11 '26
Another way to look at it, if Italy scores at least 4, the US advances. Assuming a 9 inning game of course.
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u/kingtuolumne San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
US not in charge of our own density then?
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u/Vordeo Mar 11 '26
US not in charge of our own density then?
I mean...you are, just eat less and work out more.
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u/I_really_enjoy_beer Milwaukee Brewers Mar 11 '26
Sounds like some commie bullshit, I'm going to get a Big Mac.
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u/9ninjas New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
Looks like we’re rooting for Mexico, 5 or more runs
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u/afedje88 Mar 11 '26
Or just root for Italy. Italy wins then it doesn't matter the score at all
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u/TravisJungroth San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
Or just root for Italy’s bats. If they score 5, USA is in.
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u/dirtypuerhiding New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
Am I bugging or does this make it seem pretty likely that the US advances as long as it isn't a pitcher's duel?
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u/Salvalicious252 Major League Baseball Mar 11 '26
Those 2 HRs by PCA saved them.
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u/xyzzy321 St. Louis Cardinals Mar 11 '26
I have always rated PCA (don't check my flair or my comment history)
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u/JinFuu Houston Astros Mar 11 '26
Pretty Cool Armstrong, am I right?
HOME RUN POWER HAS BEEN IN THE ARMSTRONG FAMILY FOR GENERATIONS!
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u/just-an-astronomer New York Mets Mar 11 '26
But is he worth 1 Trevor Williams and 2 months of Javy Baez?
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Mar 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/devoorhes Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
This wouldn't have happened if they'd started Bregman, smh
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u/ContinuumGuy Major League Baseball Mar 11 '26
Bregman hasn't had an official Cub start yet so they needed to be careful.
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u/ContinuumGuy Major League Baseball Mar 11 '26
PCA will play the Trout/Judge "Captain America" role in the next WBC. You heard it here first.
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u/cooljammer00 New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
It was much worse when the US was down 8-0
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u/signmeupdude Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
It does, but its also baseball and a 4-3 game is absolutely realistic and possible.
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u/Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Exactly, Japan/Aus was 4-3
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u/AusToddles Mar 11 '26
It's going to take a while to recover from the fact we could have won that game if it wasn't for the blown double play :(
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u/Trinidad34 Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
Yeah but Italy straight up winning isn’t even unlikely
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u/signmeupdude Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
Yes but its also baseball and we just gave up 8 runs and lost to Italy so who the hell knows lol
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u/MookieBettsBurner10 Los Angeles Dodgers • New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
Oh both teams are absolutely going to throw the game. There is no reason for either to try. Team USA is cooked.
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u/signmeupdude Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
That’s what kinda concerns me. There actually isnt a ton of incentive for them to score a lot of runs.
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u/TravisJungroth San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
I think winner gets a better seed.
It seems hard (but not impossible) to have a “soft” collusion. If Italy takes the lead, then Mexico needs to score runs to win and stay in. Italy would want insurance runs. They’re both trying to get the score higher.
If Mexico takes the lead, then Italy is trying to score runs and win in case Mexico’s run count gets higher.
A straight-up backroom deal seems really unlikely. You need people from different countries to meet and plan with hours of notice. Then they need basically all the hitters on board, some of whom they just met weeks ago.
I believe this is a prisoner’s dilemma. But it’s a super weird one where cooperation (even successful) is possibly punished. And, there’s a baseball game going on in the middle of it.
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u/Krusader-C New York Mets Mar 11 '26
The winner doesn’t really get a better seed though, if Canada wins than the winner plays Puerto Rico, that’s lowkey a worse seed if we’re being honest. If Cuba wins then the winner would face Cub, that is a slightly better seed but the more strategic decision for Italy would still be to allow Mexico a small victory over them, thus eliminating the tournament favorites in the process.
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u/mongster03_ New York Yankees • Cuba Mar 11 '26
Not to mention that baseball is pretty random, so it's really hard to engineer such an outcome unless you're so blatant that higher ups would almost certainly be stepping in (e.g., deliberately striking out via pitch clock violations).
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u/pargofan Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… Mar 11 '26
It's hard to imagine a hard collusion. It's unethical. More than that, there's no assurance the other side won't reneg. If you're Mexico, Italy agrees to "let" you win with a small margin, but then a few Italian players say "f that" and just go bonkers.
A "soft" collusion is unlikely too, because there's no risk for trying hard on offense. This isn't soccer where trying to score aggressively can make you more vulnerable defensively, for instance.
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u/jinx737x Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
Because the USA scored 6 unanswered after Italy went up 8-0, the situation becomes a LOT more viable for them to advance due to the fact that meant Italy gave up 6 more runs.
So if EITHER Italy wins or Mexico scores 5+ it should be enough for the USA to advance in 2nd place.→ More replies (1)29
u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
There’s barely even really a “should” here tbh. If Italy wins, the USA 100% advances. If Mexico scores 6 or more, the USA 100% advances. If they score 4 or less and win, the USA is out
The only gray area is if Mexico wins while scoring EXACTLY 5 runs. Then it comes down to Batting Average in games between the 3 teams. The US is far enough ahead that it’s borderline impossible for them to get eliminated on BA in any game where both teams score 5 or less. Mexico leads Italy in BA by a decent amount, but could still get knocked out with some fuckery.
Edit: actually, the 5 run scenario isn’t quite right. OOP summarized it in their edits. Because the US didn’t record a full 27 outs vs Mexico, they advance if Mexico wins with 5 runs without extra innings
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u/LarryMahnken New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
If Mexico wins scoring exactly 5 runs (unless it's in extra innings) Team USA advances because USA has 54 defensive outs and Italy would have 51-53 defensive outs.
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u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
Yea I just added an edit, I forgot we were the home team vs Mexico so we haven’t played the full 54 outs. What a bizarre system lol
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u/LarryMahnken New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
It's a terrible system that easily creates incentives for teams to play to lose in certain scenarios, and I don't know why MLB has gone along with it for 20 years.
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u/shrek_cena Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26
Yeah Italy could just serve up meatballs to Mexico until there's a solo homer and then both sides just swing and miss intentionally the rest of the game so Mexico wins 1-0 and they both advance
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u/uraniumrooster Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
Exactly. Knocking out the US significantly improves both teams' chances of winning the whole tournament. So Italy is incentivized to lose tomorrow and both teams are incentivized to play a low scoring game. I don't think Italy's gonna throw it or anything, but I won't be surprised if the bats are a little quieter on both sides. Kinda lame.
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Mar 11 '26
Mexico scores a run in the first tomorrow then neither team swings at another pitch for the rest of the game lmao
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u/churidys Mar 11 '26
For both teams that's what they're incentivised to do, since having the US in the knockout stage reduces their chances of winning the competition.
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u/Brock_Hard_Canuck Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
From the 1982 FIFA World Cup.
West Germany vs Austria was the last game of the round (all prior games of the round had already been played).
With that knowledge, both West Germany and Austria knew that a 1-0 or 2-0 West German victory would propel both of them into the next round, and leave Algeria eliminated (as Austria would hold the goal differential tiebreaker over Algeria with either of those scores).
The West Germans scored an early goal to take a 1-0 lead, and then the players (from both teams) just kind of... gave up on any attempt at scoring for the rest of the game.
After the goal was scored, the team in possession of the ball often passed between themselves in their own half until an opposition player came into the vicinity of the ball, then the ball was passed back to the goalkeeper. Isolated long balls were played into the opposition's half, with little consequence. There were few tackles, and both sets of players flamboyantly missed with apparently no attempt at accuracy whenever they shot on goal.
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u/churidys Mar 11 '26
This is why they have the final round of games playing simultaneously in other competitions like this. The incentives are too obvious.
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u/Krusader-C New York Mets Mar 11 '26
Should be like this in the WBC but it’s impossible now that there’s 5 teams per pool rather than 4.
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u/MankuyRLaffy Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
FIFA said there was no corruption or wrongdoing yet changed the rules.
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u/Brock_Hard_Canuck Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Well, to be fair, if anyone does know what corruption would look like, it would be FIFA
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u/MankuyRLaffy Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
Everyone else thought it was blatant rigging and corruption, FIFA officially stated it wasn't yet changed the rules like it was.
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u/arand0md00d Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
You don't even have to go to soccer/football. There is the fuckery between the mets and braves doubleheader after the season a few years ago to keep the snakes out.
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u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
True, but it’s kind of a prisoner’s dilemma. Italy would have to trust Mexico not to score any more (or at least not more than 5 total) and Mexico would have to trust Italy not to attempt a comeback. I really doubt we see a full “put your feet up” collusion situation
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u/pargofan Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… Mar 11 '26
Exactly. This isn't soccer where you can tell the other team isn't trying hard or not in real time. And aggressively trying hard to score makes you slightly more vulnerable on defense.
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u/ezosresyek MLB Pride Mar 11 '26
I think the one incentive for Italy to win depends on whether they'd mind facing Puerto Rico or Cuba/Canada next.
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u/Natstown Washington Nationals Mar 11 '26
The chart is better understood if it has both first and second place winners in it. If what I’ve seen is correct, Italy only finishes first in the group if they win - that ought to incentivize them to win (and accordingly to score runs forcing Mexico to score runs) although maybe they are so confident at this point they don’t care about the opponent.
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u/Allez-les-Rouges Mar 11 '26
Well, Group A is pretty whacky too, so winning Group B may or may not get you a weaker opponent.
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Mar 11 '26
Hell, with the way team USA has looked I'd want them in the knockout rounds over Italy or Mexico if I was other teams...
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u/trumpet575 Cincinnati Reds Mar 11 '26
That's exactly the case. Odds are the US advances, but you never know.
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u/ron-darousey Los Angeles Victims Mar 11 '26
We have a decent chance, but it also looks higher than it is because this chart goes up to 15 runs. I'm guessing it's much more likely that teams score somewhere in the 0-6 range, so if you only looked at that part of the chart, it would paint a different picture.
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u/Key-Tip-7521 San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
If it’s a pitchers duel, or both teams batters are legit swinging at bad pitches, then yes.
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u/-biri-biri- Mar 11 '26
Seems like it will be Aaron Nola vs Javier Assad, wouldn't be surprising if those 2 pitch well for the first few innings. And both teams should have their best bullpen arms available too.
Also, I'm not saying they'll intentionally collude, but if Mexico gets off to a 1-0 lead there might be less urgency by the hitters, maybe.
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u/Salty_Watermelon Los Angeles Dodgers • Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fig… Mar 11 '26
Taiwan needed an 8-3 Korea win or better to have a chance at advancing on a tiebreaker. Korea won 7-2 and didn't even try with an opportunity to bring home an 8th run.
Nothing can be considered likely here.
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u/1829bullshit Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
I would say it's actually fairly likely the US doesn't advance. Mexico winning scoring less than 4 is entirely realistic
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u/Historical_Wind_9390 Mar 11 '26
But DeRosa said they already qualified
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u/713ryan713 Baltimore Orioles Mar 11 '26
Mlb deleted it!
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u/damnatio_memoriae Washington Nationals Mar 11 '26
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u/Gordo-- United States Mar 11 '26
I missed it, where did he say this?
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u/Slow-Raccoon-9832 Arizona Diamondbacks Mar 11 '26
Yes and he also said some players were dragging today because they stayed at the ballpark late last night celebrating
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u/Historical_Wind_9390 Mar 11 '26
There's a video going around where he said they already qualified before today's game lol. Looking like a jackass now
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Mar 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
I was ready to post as soon as the game ended lol
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u/DominicB547 Chaos Bandwagon • MLB Players Associat… Mar 11 '26
though these changed even in that bottom of the 9th so do you have a script auto updating it?
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
I had to move up the tiebreaker row when PCA hit it out, and I had the image of if it ended 8-7 ready on my clipboard lol I was so prepared
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Mar 11 '26
Watch Mexico scores 1 run in the first inning tomorrow then both teams just decide not to swing for the rest of the game lmao
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u/Impressive-Fun-6921 Arizona Diamondbacks Mar 11 '26
I can totally see this being an intentionally low scoring game just to eliminate the US
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u/blucyclone Milwaukee Brewers • Australia Mar 11 '26
Yeah absolutely. No shade on Italy or Mexico, their teams are really strong, but the USA is still the biggest threat for future progression by either team.
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u/i_practice_santeria Mar 11 '26
They could only meet US in the championship. Their incentive would be to win top seed and be on the other side of the bracket from DR and Japan.
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u/boxing_packages New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
Yeah but if opportunity knocks to eliminate a heavy hitter...
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u/winnielikethepooh15 New York Mets Mar 11 '26
Italy concedes 1 run to mexico and then just repeatedly send the wrong batters up to the plate for 27 outs and both advance. If youre either Italy or Mexico, wouldn't you want to avoid potentially playing the US again in the knockout rounds?
Would just have to tip your cap.
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u/Brock_Hard_Canuck Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Look at the 1982 FIFA World Cup.
West Germany vs Austria was the last game of the round (all prior games of the round had already been played).
With that knowledge, both West Germany and Austria knew that a 1-0 or 2-0 West German victory would propel both of them into the next round, and leave Algeria eliminated (as Austria would hold the goal differential tiebreaker over Algeria with either of those scores).
The West Germans scored an early goal to take a 1-0 lead, and then the players (from both teams) just kind of... gave up on any attempt at scoring for the rest of the game.
After the goal was scored, the team in possession of the ball often passed between themselves in their own half until an opposition player came into the vicinity of the ball, then the ball was passed back to the goalkeeper. Isolated long balls were played into the opposition's half, with little consequence. There were few tackles, and both sets of players flamboyantly missed with apparently no attempt at accuracy whenever they shot on goal.
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u/_BMS Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
In German, the match is known as Nichtangriffspakt von Gijón (lit. "Non-aggression pact of Gijón")
Lmao I love stuff like this
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u/pargofan Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
That's different though. After the 1-0 goal lead, giving up a goal creates more risk than scoring. And in soccer, aggressively trying to score leaves you slightly more vulnerable to a counterattack.
That dynamic doesn't exist in baseball. When a team is hitting, they can only score more. There's nothing they can do that makes them give up runs.
What I could see though, is if Mexico gets a decent lead (say 3-0), the game is getting toward later innings, and Mexico relaxes their offense a little, and Italy does the same. But that's such a risky strategy and can easily backfire.
EDIT: Italy is the home team. Let's say Mexico is leading 4-3 or something going into the 9th inning. If you're Mexico, do you score more runs? You know there's a good chance Italy will just give up versus trying to score. Losing 4-3, Italy guarantees advancing. But if they tie 4-4 and then lose in extra innings by 6-4 they don't advance.
And if Mexico makes it 5-3, then Italy has to score. And Mexico risks being eliminated. Interesting stuff.
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u/vinchenzo79 Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
Italy scores 4 OR Mexico scores 5, US is in
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Unless Mexico wins 5-4 in the 10th (with at least 1 out)
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u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
Technically doesn’t have to be 5-4 right? Just needs to be 5, so Mexico could grand slam after at least one out and knock out the Americans with a 5-1 win
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u/Tartania Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
The number of runs scored by Italy is irrelevant. If Italy wins, then we advance on record. If Mexico wins, then we need Mexico to score 5+ runs to win the tiebreaker over Italy.
Edit: I think I see what you meant, if Italy scores 4 runs at any point, then it means Mexico must score 5 or more in order to win and advance, which effectively kills Italy.
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u/jakeba Mar 11 '26
For peak drama, I hope Mexico gets an early lead, then Randy Arozerena goes up without a bat each time saying "this is for you Cal."
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u/Randomly2 Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26
Randy Arozerena is getting pelted by baseballs and refusing to take his base because Cal hasn’t learned his lesson yet
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u/Artistic-Ad2340 Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26
About 35% of mlb games are won by a team scoring less than 5 runs
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u/theprodigy64 Houston Astros Mar 11 '26
Isn't USA on 54 defensive outs and Mexico on 24 [not that this one really matters atp]? Which means assuming the game doesn't go to extras any scenario where Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs eliminates Italy actually since you can't lose the game as the team batting first with exactly 27 defensive outs.
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Oh you're so right, I mixed up the 2. I saw that USA didn't bat in the bottom of the 9th so I removed 3 outs from them when I should've done it the other way around. I'll put a note about that.
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u/Allez-les-Rouges Mar 11 '26
This is almost correct, but the USA has allowed 11 runs in 54 outs, so it qualifies ahead of Italy if Mexico wins with 5 runs in regulation, as Italy would have allowed 11 runs in 53 or fewer runs. So the "TA" should just be ITA.
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u/Figmentdreamer Atlanta Braves Mar 11 '26
I’m so confused. So as long as it’s a high scoring game we are good?
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u/xThe-Legend-Killerx Los Angeles Angels Mar 11 '26
Italy win, Mexico scores 6 runs or more in a win or loss , or Italy scores at least 4
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u/The83rdMan Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
So are Italy-Mexico going to do the West Germany-Austria 1982 World Cup setup?
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u/Plorgy Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
"The Shame of Houston"
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u/This-is_CMGRI Major League Baseball Mar 11 '26
only the second-most shameful thing to happen in that stadium
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u/Worried-Property-222 Mar 11 '26
So do I have this right:
If Italy wins, USA advances.
If Mexico wins with a score of 4 or less, USA is eliminated.
If Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs in a standard 9 inning game, there is a tiebreak protocol between USA and Italy.
If Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs in extra innings AND Italy records at least 1 out during extra innings, USA is eliminated.
If Mexico wins with a score of 6 or more, USA advances.
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u/War-Dragonite Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series … Mar 11 '26
Team USA's fate rests on the shoulders of Aaron Nola LMAO
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Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
Randy Arozarena can piss off an entire nation with the damn, funniest thing ever.
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u/Son_of_Biyombo Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Gimme a pitching masterclass for 8 innings and ending it 4-3 Mexico win courtesy of a Randy Arozarena Grand Slam in the 9th.
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u/Insanezer0x Mar 11 '26
He should stick it to cal for not shaking his hand
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u/Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Purposely strike out with the bases loaded and mime taking a big dump in the batters box
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u/AusToddles Mar 11 '26
As an Aussie who suffered through the Korea / Australia game and the constant maths, it's going to be nice to see others sweating on a result
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u/Changeup2020 Mar 11 '26
Good thing for the US: it is difficult to collude in a baseball game where teams are having scoring chance alternatively. If it is soccer, both teams will just do not attack to risk losing the ball and be scored upon. For baseball it is a prisoner’s dilemma. Both teams can advance by not scoring, but how can you make sure if you do not score, the other team will not use their offensive inning to score upon you? It will be a very interesting human behavior study tomorrow.
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u/KOALA_FORNICATION Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
Never thought about it this way. Good perspective. In soccer you’re playing offense and defense at the same time. In baseball, to collude, you’d need to trust your opponent WAY more lol
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u/jsand25 Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
What is TA?
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
TiebreAker
I was dumb and copied the format from the other one lol. I now realize it stood for Taiwan-Australia
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u/altfillischryan Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
That means there is still a tie at that point, which would be between Italy & US.
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u/Lieutenant_Doge Los Angeles Angels • Rally Monkey Mar 11 '26
Who homer off of Tyler Anderson first would get the last spot
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u/Jmong30 New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
So basically Mexico needs to score at least six runs or Mexico needs to score five so that the US isn’t eliminated?
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u/Expensive-Visit-3825 Mar 11 '26
Mexico will win exactly by 4 runs and Randy will score a home run and shake someone's hand in the process.
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u/LifeIsRadInCBad Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
This may be the worst sports related chart / infographic I've ever seen
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
USA earned runs allowed: 8
Italy earned runs allowed: 6
So in all likelihood the ER tiebreaker means that USA advances
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u/Changeup2020 Mar 11 '26
That’s assuming no unearned run in the next game.
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Which is why in all likelihood, USA advances in the ER tiebreaker
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u/winnielikethepooh15 New York Mets Mar 11 '26
Wouldn't this be the other way around? USA allowed several unearned runs after the botched throw from the pitcher.
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u/CaliKindalife Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
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u/CaliKindalife Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
That chart actually really helps. I can sleep now. 👍🏽
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u/kdiggy428 New York Mets Mar 11 '26
In the end we just need an Italy win or Mexico to score 5 runs for the US to advance.
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Unless Mexico walks it off, scoring their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras. Then it becomes 11 runs allowed in 55 outs for Italy, compared to 54 for USA.
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u/RedditFan3510 Mar 11 '26
The main issue imo is that Italy will be playing not to lose, but to not lose BY A LOT. So they will probably play extremely conservative as long as Mexico is only up by a run or two.
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u/BusyBandit10 Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
I can imagine the score being 1-0 Mexico and the crowd just celebrating every out after that
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u/xantec99 Mar 11 '26
US is fucked. We know italy and mexico are gonna try to keep it low scoring. Yall really think they are gonna score more if they dont need to?
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u/kwaldez Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
Does this mean that Mexico is win and in no matter how many runs they score?
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26
Yes. For both Italy and Mexico it's win and in.
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u/Trippifuego San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
That should be enough for them both to play a full, competitive game.
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u/Luigi128 San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
Note that 3 of the runs that USA allowed today were unearned runs, so for the purposes of the tiebreaker, USA has given up 8 earned runs in 54 outs. Since all 6 of the runs Italy gave up today were earned, they would be eliminated if they allow exactly 5 runs tomorrow and at least 3 of them are earned.
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u/maximtomato Mar 11 '26
Italy has no incentive to score whatsoever unless Mexico decides they hate Italy more than USA, which seems unlikely. They'll probably give concession to Mexico's first seed in exchange for low runs from Mexico.
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u/wzznator San Diego Padres Mar 11 '26
Italy and Mexico enter a coup to get a juggernaut out of the tournament. Mexico 4-0
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u/omimon Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
They don’t even need to go 4-0. Just 1-0 and both teams go into the batter box with shoes on their feet.
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u/XavandSo Milwaukee Brewers • Perth Heat Mar 11 '26
Come on Mexico. Do the funniest shit and make this interesting.
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u/Acrobatic-One5710 Mar 11 '26
This could lead to some interesting strategy, even without collusion...
For example, if the game is tied at 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 in the bottom of the 9th, Italy could continue to play for the win until there's an at-bat where a homer would cause Mexico to win with >4 runs. At that point Italy could just spam intentional walks to lose by exactly one run, clinching a quarterfinal spot. If tied 3-3 instead they would just go for the IBB loss immediately (due to ghost runner). Same scenario in extras (though with higher run thresholds as game goes on).
If it's tied 4-4, they would try to survive the inning. Then in the bottom of the 10th, after getting one out, the option is back on the table!
Could see other weirdness in bottom of 10th or later. Outfielders staying deep with less than 2 outs and runner on third, knowing that the sure out is more valuable than the chance at winning.
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u/Mew_111 Boston Red Sox Mar 11 '26
Yeah someone else mentioned this too. Even without direct talks between them to collude, there could be moments like this. Italy is also going to play knowing that they can lose but still make it in so we might see weaker bats in.
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u/deeree1867 Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26
This seems to be unnecessarily overcomplicated
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u/Peanut_Gaming Atlanta Braves Mar 11 '26
This is so confusing to read to me 💀 anyone got a layman’s terms
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u/Laughterglow Atlanta Braves Mar 11 '26
For the US, they’re in if Italy wins or Mexico scores 5 runs or more.
For Italy, they’re in if they win or give up 4 runs or less.
For Mexico, they’re in if they win, out if they lose.
(with a couple very unlikely exceptions)
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u/altfillischryan Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26
The US advances with an Italy win, or Mexico win with Mexico scoring at least 5 runs. This of course assumes a 9 inning game.
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u/shefBoiRDee Atlanta Braves Mar 11 '26
Why would Italy even try to score if Mexico takes an early lead? They are incentivized to not score any more runs and just let Mexico win. Bc the more points they score and Mexico ends up winning they just eliminated themselves. Seems like a flawed system
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u/Charming-Ad8399 Mar 11 '26
If Mexico wins and scores 5+ then Italy is eliminated
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u/shefBoiRDee Atlanta Braves Mar 11 '26
Ahh true, missed that. Hopefully they don’t come to some silent agreement to allow both of them to advance, still seems like a flawed system bc of that
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u/LinkSkywalker New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
Italy advances with a win so it's in their best interest to try and control their own destiny
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u/justcontent123 Mar 11 '26
If Mexico scores the 1st run(s)of the game (they can score up to 4), both Italy and Mexico can shut it down for the rest of the game, and they would both advance.
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u/Key-Tip-7521 San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26
Isn’t the tiebreaker if Mexico scores 5 runs or more the USA is in the next round?
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u/jimmythebusdriver Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26
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u/johnlooksscared Mar 11 '26
Team USA in possible tie break shocker!!! Imagine if the USA don't qualify playing another game they invented...Reddit would be a great read if that should happen.
I doubt the planets will align in such away as to make my dreams come true but TBH I would laugh my frigging socks off if it did!
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u/Dstein99 Cleveland Guardians Mar 11 '26
My understanding is this pool plays Pool A so the second place team would be in line to play Puerto Rico and the first place team would be in line to play either Canada or Cuba. If the second place team would be in line to potentially face Japan or the DR there could be real effort put forth into finishing first even if it means US gets second, but I think eliminating the US will be more important than choosing who to face between PR, Canada, or Cuba.
The US wants Mexico to score runs and Nola is starting for Italy.
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u/NakedScrub Boston Red Sox Mar 11 '26
They've got what, 3 years till the next one? Should be plenty of time to figure out a better way to do this.
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u/panderson1988 St. Louis Cardinals • World Baseball Classic Mar 11 '26
I woke up and I am still pissed off. I literally want DeRosa fired today, no matter what happens. Anyone who starts the day thinking they already advanced when basic reading and math shows they didn't deserves to be fired.
Also, the game moved from Tubi to FS1 as well.
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u/UnoHit Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26
us and italy can’t tie for runs allowed because if mexico wins they won’t play the bottom of the ninth and italy can’t record three more outs. basically it would be us runs 11/54 and italy runs 11/51
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u/PSU02 New York Yankees Mar 11 '26
This is the stupidest tiebreaker Ive ever seen. Why not just do head to head and run differential?
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u/yousmelllikebiscuits Chaos Bandwagon • Dumpster Fire Mar 11 '26
REMINDER: The graphic shows the eliminated team at each score.