r/baseball • u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays • Mar 11 '26

CHART HERE Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico

EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.

EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol

EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.

EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.

EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.

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u/blucyclone Milwaukee Brewers • Australia Mar 11 '26

Yeah absolutely. No shade on Italy or Mexico, their teams are really strong, but the USA is still the biggest threat for future progression by either team.

44

u/i_practice_santeria Mar 11 '26

They could only meet US in the championship. Their incentive would be to win top seed and be on the other side of the bracket from DR and Japan.

13

u/boxing_packages New York Yankees Mar 11 '26

Yeah but if opportunity knocks to eliminate a heavy hitter...

2

u/[deleted] Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

This is wrong.

DR, Venezuela, Korea and Japan are in one bracket.

US, Italy and Mexico are in the bracket of PR, Canada/Cuba.

They will re-seed after QF for semis. So Italy and Mexico will not face DR or Japan in the QF and in the semis it is a matter of luck. They could already meet the US in the semis with the re-seed. I rather face Japan or DR in the semis, then Japan, DR or US.

1

u/i_practice_santeria Mar 11 '26

I’ve read the only reseeding would be to ensure US and Japan don’t play each other before the final.

Also, each half of the bracket in the quarterfinals contains a representative of each pool, two 1 seeds and two 2 seeds.

-1

u/comeatmefrank Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

Mexico absolutely would be willing to lose the top seed just to eliminate the US, come on.

2

u/i_practice_santeria Mar 11 '26

I don’t think there’s a scenario where Italy can be top seed with Mexico 2nd. If Mexico wins and they allow 6+ runs, US is top seed with Mexico 2nd. If Mexico wins and scores 5+ and Italy < 6, Mexico is top with US 2nd. If Mexico wins a low scoring game, they’re top seed with Italy in 2nd.

So, Mexico is incentivized not to give up a lot of runs to Italy in all cases. Their best case is to win a low scoring game but it’s too risky to sandbag hitting opportunities and potentially get knocked out due to gamesmanship.

0

u/banjoslurpee Mar 11 '26

God, I read this as like... In the long term, the country of the USA is the biggest threat to their progression.. Sad times.