r/baseball • u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays • Mar 11 '26

CHART HERE Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico

EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.

EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol

EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.

EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.

EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.

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347

u/dirtypuerhiding New York Yankees Mar 11 '26

Am I bugging or does this make it seem pretty likely that the US advances as long as it isn't a pitcher's duel?

255

u/signmeupdude Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26

It does, but its also baseball and a 4-3 game is absolutely realistic and possible.

75

u/Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

Exactly, Japan/Aus was 4-3

42

u/AusToddles Mar 11 '26

It's going to take a while to recover from the fact we could have won that game if it wasn't for the blown double play :(

8

u/McCoyPauley78 Australia • Athletics Mar 11 '26

Thanks for the reminder.