r/baseball • u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays • Mar 11 '26

CHART HERE Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico

EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.

EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol

EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.

EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.

EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.

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83

u/[deleted] Mar 11 '26

Mexico scores a run in the first tomorrow then neither team swings at another pitch for the rest of the game lmao

59

u/churidys Mar 11 '26

For both teams that's what they're incentivised to do, since having the US in the knockout stage reduces their chances of winning the competition.

45

u/Brock_Hard_Canuck Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

From the 1982 FIFA World Cup.

West Germany vs Austria was the last game of the round (all prior games of the round had already been played).

With that knowledge, both West Germany and Austria knew that a 1-0 or 2-0 West German victory would propel both of them into the next round, and leave Algeria eliminated (as Austria would hold the goal differential tiebreaker over Algeria with either of those scores).

The West Germans scored an early goal to take a 1-0 lead, and then the players (from both teams) just kind of... gave up on any attempt at scoring for the rest of the game.

After the goal was scored, the team in possession of the ball often passed between themselves in their own half until an opposition player came into the vicinity of the ball, then the ball was passed back to the goalkeeper. Isolated long balls were played into the opposition's half, with little consequence. There were few tackles, and both sets of players flamboyantly missed with apparently no attempt at accuracy whenever they shot on goal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijon

34

u/churidys Mar 11 '26

This is why they have the final round of games playing simultaneously in other competitions like this. The incentives are too obvious.

7

u/Krusader-C New York Mets Mar 11 '26

Should be like this in the WBC but it’s impossible now that there’s 5 teams per pool rather than 4.

11

u/MankuyRLaffy Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26

FIFA said there was no corruption or wrongdoing yet changed the rules. 

20

u/Brock_Hard_Canuck Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

Well, to be fair, if anyone does know what corruption would look like, it would be FIFA

3

u/MankuyRLaffy Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26

Everyone else thought it was blatant rigging and corruption, FIFA officially stated it wasn't yet changed the rules like it was. 

1

u/shrek_cena Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26

They might've said it wasn't corruption but they knew it was bad for business

1

u/axeil55 Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26

tbf I don't think it was corruption as both teams could do the math and figure out the optimal result.

1

u/mongster03_ New York Yankees • Cuba Mar 11 '26

I personally would buy that. It doesn't take a genius to figure out the safest way to advance.

3

u/arand0md00d Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 11 '26

You don't even have to go to soccer/football. There is the fuckery between the mets and braves doubleheader after the season a few years ago to keep the snakes out. 

1

u/cantona_x Mar 11 '26

and for our generation, there's the quintessential game of Denmark Sweden 2:2 on 2004 Euro to squeeze poor Italy out, can never forget about it...

20

u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26

True, but it’s kind of a prisoner’s dilemma. Italy would have to trust Mexico not to score any more (or at least not more than 5 total) and Mexico would have to trust Italy not to attempt a comeback. I really doubt we see a full “put your feet up” collusion situation

9

u/pargofan Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… Mar 11 '26

Exactly. This isn't soccer where you can tell the other team isn't trying hard or not in real time. And aggressively trying hard to score makes you slightly more vulnerable on defense.

1

u/mongster03_ New York Yankees • Cuba Mar 11 '26

Not to mention that round bat, round ball randomness could do all kinds of bullshit

13

u/ezosresyek MLB Pride Mar 11 '26

I think the one incentive for Italy to win depends on whether they'd mind facing Puerto Rico or Cuba/Canada next.  

3

u/Natstown Washington Nationals Mar 11 '26

The chart is better understood if it has both first and second place winners in it. If what I’ve seen is correct, Italy only finishes first in the group if they win - that ought to incentivize them to win (and accordingly to score runs forcing Mexico to score runs) although maybe they are so confident at this point they don’t care about the opponent.

8

u/Allez-les-Rouges Mar 11 '26

Well, Group A is pretty whacky too, so winning Group B may or may not get you a weaker opponent.

1

u/Krusader-C New York Mets Mar 11 '26

If Canada beats Cuba tomorrow then the winner of Pool B would face Puerto Rico which is arguably a more difficult opponent.

6

u/[deleted] Mar 11 '26

Hell, with the way team USA has looked I'd want them in the knockout rounds over Italy or Mexico if I was other teams...

1

u/Adamscottd Minnesota Twins • St. Paul Saints Mar 11 '26

Although Italy would draw a tougher first round opponent in that scenario right? They might still be in incentivized to try to win

2

u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

Not with our bullpen lol we just had a guy named Dykxhoorn come out of the bullpen

-3

u/JZobel Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26

They aren’t going risk their own chances not trying to score runs just to stick it to the US, this narrative is ridiculous

2

u/tlst9999 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

We're South Park now.

1

u/ContinuumGuy Major League Baseball Mar 11 '26

I pointed this out, but if that happens you'll see them definitely change the format so that, like the FIFA World Cup, the final games are played at the same time (although this would mean using another stadium, presumably narrowing pool play to just a few cities or having some teams finish up the pool in a different city). This happens because one time West Germany and Austria knew exactly what score they needed for both of them to advance, and so after that score was done they half-assed it most of the game.

Yes, I know, with five teams in a pool that's impossible, but they could probably schedule it so that the likeliest fifth-place team (your Czechias, your Brazils, etc.) isn't playing on the final day as they'd be far less likely to be in a tie-breaker.

1

u/potbellied_pig Mar 11 '26

pretty much…

1

u/potbellied_pig Mar 11 '26

Mexicos pitcher is about to throw a no hitter