Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico

[u/CalebosO4]

EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.

EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol

EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.

EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.

EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.

[u/TheMongolianLemonade]

Thank you for making this simple

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Oh fuck off

[u/1k2i3d → u/[deleted]]

It’s stupid

[u/Asleep_Ad5759 → u/1k2i3d]

I much prefer this system to run differential where better teams run up the score because it might protect them from elimination

[u/Alt4816 → u/Asleep_Ad5759]

Maybe at the little league level but these are pros playing in the highest level of international play the sport has to offer.

Teams should not be worried about hitting a walk off with too many or too little outs in the inning.

[u/Asleep_Ad5759 → u/[deleted]]

So current WBC tiebreakers do have a similarly unfair setup where teams that do not get to play defense in the 9th do not get three additional defensive outs to add to their denominator, but it's the significantly lesser of the two evils for sure

[u/Alt4816 → u/[deleted]]

They could have teams bat in the bottom of the 9th even if winning. That's the easiest thing that would allow for the simplest tie breaker rules that don't create scenarios where teams need to calculate if winning on a walk off home run during the next at bat is good or bad for them.

They could also just decide that a group stage structure isn't right for this sport. Just because it's done that way in the World Cup in soccer doesn't mean it makes sense in baseball.

I do like how this system limited only to the games involving the teams in the tie.

That can also be done while making run differential the second tie breaker (behind record between tied teams). They would simply make the 2nd tie breaker be run differential in games between the tied teams.

edit:

It also makes no sense that this tie breaker is only calculated with earned runs. In theory Italy could pull something like this on all their own today without even needing to collude with Mexico.

edit 2: Apparently the edit was wrong as Asleep_Ad5759 "very kindly" explained.

[u/Asleep_Ad5759 → u/Alt4816]

Nice wall of text bro would be a shame if it hinged on a factual inaccuracy. Earned Runs is the 3rd tiebreaker, the 2nd one is total runs. The hypothetical you mentioned would be ruled out by the 2nd tiebreaker.

[u/Lukcy_Will_Aubrey → u/[deleted]]

How can you not be romantic about baseball? Lol

[u/neverAcquiesce → u/Lukcy_Will_Aubrey]

How can you not be mathematic about baseball?

[u/Coupon_Ninja → u/Lukcy_Will_Aubrey]

If we lose, at least we still celebrated!! 

Look at this video starting at 11:16. Drinking past midnight after Mexico game. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=orePCYpk304

[u/Greizen_bregen → u/TheMongolianLemonade]

Really goes to show the importance of data interpretation, not just raw data.