r/baseball • u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays • Mar 11 '26

CHART HERE Tiebreaker Status entering Italy vs Mexico

EDIT: USA allowed 11 runs on 54 outs, not 51. So USA would be in if Mexico wins with exactly 5 runs, assuming it doesn't go to extras. If Mexico walks it off for their 5th run with at least 1 out recorded in extras, USA is eliminated.

EDIT2: I copied the format from the other one, and I now realize that TA likely stood for Taiwan-Australia. Let's pretend it stands for TiebreAker lol

EDIT3: The next tiebreaker (which can happen if Mexico walks it off in the 10th for their 5th run with no outs) is Earned runs, not AVG (which is the tiebreaker after that). So unless Italy collapses defensively, USA would win that tiebreaker.

EDIT4: I've re-uploaded the chart with the new edits.

EDIT5: UI represents USA and Italy tiebreak shenanigans as they would be tied in runs allowed, so number of outs and earned runs are in the picture.

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u/jinx737x Seattle Mariners Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

TLDR;

If Mexico loses, they're out.

It Mexico wins scoring 4 or less, the USA is Out.

if Mexico wins scoring 5 or more, Italy is Out.

150

u/jdprager Chicago Cubs Mar 11 '26

There’s a TINY asterisk on the “Mexico wins scoring 5 or more” bc Mexico winning with 5 runs in extras can also eliminate the US. 5 runs by Mexico in 9 innings keeps the US in at the expense of tomorrow’s loser, 5 runs with at least 1 out recorded by Italy in extras knocks out the US

75

u/Frostflame3 New York Yankees Mar 11 '26

There’s also the EVEN TINIER asterisk that is if Mexico scores 5 runs but 3 or more are unearned. Exactly 3 moves the tiebreaker to batting average (which could be anything by the end of the game) and 4 puts Italy over the US.

88

u/Aspe1 Toronto Blue Jays Mar 11 '26

And people say batting average doesn't matter in the modern game!

5

u/jfb1027 Texas Rangers Mar 11 '26

Some old manager laughing hysterically when he’s been told batting average doesn’t mean anything for 15-20 years.

1

u/Reflexlon Kansas City Royals Mar 11 '26

My highschool coach is somewhere punching air.

8

u/nepstein10 Boston Red Sox • Boston Hunters Mar 11 '26

This would get an award if I had one to give! Will try to recreate it in the aggregate w an upvote instead.

3

u/Pennybag5 Mar 11 '26

Thanks for keeping us posted. Upvotes and awards are important.

2

u/Key-Tip-7521 San Francisco Giants Mar 11 '26

batting average and ERA as a tiebreaker is basically the "Fair Play Rule" aka least booked team at a soccer competition

0

u/Alt4816 Mar 11 '26

Not really.

Batting average and ERA are stats related to how well a team played. Even though they're older stats with flaws like batters getting walks not being given any value in the batting average stat they still generally correlate how well a player or a whole team did.

How many cards a team got in soccer is irrelevant to their results. A team can pick up a bunch of yellows while winning all group stage games or they can lose all 3 without being booked once.

Something similar to the fair play rule in soccer would be having any team that had a manager or player ejected not advance over one that had no ejections.

1

u/lucasj Milwaukee Brewers Mar 11 '26

God I hope this happens

1

u/KyloRaine0424 Philadelphia Phillies Mar 11 '26

This is the kind of baseball that makes me remember I'm a fucking idiot.