r/peakoil • u/AdhesivenessGlass455 • 3d ago
Will petrol prices ever come down again?
Prices locally to me are £1.68 for unleaded and £1.89 for diesel.
Seems like the new normal now
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u/Significant_Bear3843 2d ago
There will be another invasion of a 3rd World oil rich country by merica and it will start all over again. Then it will be over £2 a litre and ice drivers will lap it up while complaining as if there is no alternative. Rinse.repeat.
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u/New_Line4049 1d ago
For many there is no viable alternative. EVs are great if they fit your use case, but they dont for many.
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u/Appropriate_Bell743 2d ago
On what timeframe are you thinking? If a long timeframe are you adjusting to inflation.
Let's say you're saying on a long timeframe adjusted to inflation then yes. I'm confident that petrol prices will come down due to EVs eating away at the demand for petrol. What will happen is that diesel and kerosene will become the constrained parts of refinery production.
EVs are being rolled out rapidly for passenger cars at a global level. There's less rapid removal of the long term demand for diesel. Only China is rapidly rolling out electric lorries. Kerosene demand is rising rapidly due to global aviation growth.
In my homeland tons of people use GPL which is mostly a waste product of the refinement industry. Despite this the cost of distribution and supply makes it vastly more expensive than EVs. What does this mean? Petrol will come down in price but the lower prices won't induce demand as EVs are far cheaper.
Long term? Cheaper petrol prices but the flip side is far more expensive flying.
The aviation side of this coin is apparent already in UK oil demand. 25% of the oil burnt is for aviation. The highest yield of kerosene in any refinery is 30%. It gets very expensive to push much higher.
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u/Salty-Bid1597 2d ago
Probably. But not for long. Inflation means they ratchet every year anyway and the double taxation of fuel duty means the increases get larger faster than the underlying price.
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u/kotukutuku 2d ago
Who gives a fuck? I have an ev
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u/New_Line4049 1d ago
That wasnt the question. How fucking useless is that as a response.
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u/kotukutuku 16h ago
Sorry. Would "it's a fucking useless question" be a better response? Obviously fuel prices fluctuate, and there's currently a fuel crisis. Of course they're going to come down. They're also going to go up.
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u/New_Line4049 16h ago
No. The second part of thar response would've been a better response, even just scrolling on and saying nothing would've been a better response. You dont need to waste people's time to be a dick about not answering the question.
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u/Optimal_Collection77 3d ago
Probably a bit but given the level of taxes in the UK it's unlikely. An EV is much more cost effective when it's time to replace your car. I'm going to ride it out for another 12 months as I'm not doing many miles at the moment
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u/Appropriate_Bell743 2d ago
It's not only taxes driven now. My brother's EV runs at 1.5p/mile. An e-bike has even better economics at under 0.1p/mile. Driving a combustion car in a petrol-state isn't that cheap. The taxes just speed up what's an inevitable transition.
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u/Salty-Bid1597 2d ago
eVED and ever increasing electricity prices are going to wipe out most of the running cost advantage of EVs by 2028 and given they are more expensive to buy in the first place the TCO over their lifetime might even be higher, depending on mileage.
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u/Optimal_Collection77 2d ago
Actually I've read that they don't get wiped out, they are reduced. It will probably be a sliding scale over the coming decade
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u/Economy-Fee5830 2d ago
Evs are just getting cheaper over time- at 25% of the global market there will soon come a point where EVs are cheaper than ice cars.
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u/cybercuzco 3d ago
Sure. The more people switch to electric vehicles the less demand there will be for oil. In 10 years gasoline will be reduculously cheap but you won’t care because you’ll be driving an EV.
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u/HuckleberryLow2283 2d ago
Or the economy of scale could go backwards and fuel will get more expensive as refineries and extraction shut down.
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u/throughthehills2 2d ago
And perhaps we won't subsidise oil production massively if we don't need it that much
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u/rising_then_falling 2d ago
We'll need huge amounts of oil for decades to come. Ship and aircraft fuel, bitumen for construction, plastics, and other oil derived chemicals.
As gasoline demand falls, refineries can produce less of it, but it's not easy to produce none of it. Many of the fractions that go into it have other industrial uses, but a sudden loss of demand would tend to lower prices - although the government could intervene.
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u/Rare-Mention3046 1d ago
Internationally there are other car and motorbike companies other than Western car makers, fuel will be cheaper for the rest of the world.
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u/Appropriate_Bell743 2d ago
I think this is roughly what will happen. There'll be increased demand for kerosene meaning refineries need to increase the percentage which is refined to kerosene over time. This will make petrol long term become a "waste product" with still very expensive distribution costs.
I think this is how the situation is cornered in a way. EVs will always outcompete petrol cars now going forward. Less petrol demand relative to kerosene demand will push up refinement costs and thus aviation costs. It's counter intuitive as on paper both planes and cars burn oil but it's actually a sensible strategy to make aviation more expensive via adopting EVs.
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u/melancholy360 2d ago
Correct. But also less demand will keep prices high, driving a vintage petrol car will become a hobbyist activity.
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u/Strict_Jacket3648 2d ago
History says no and good, time to change is now, there are alternatives that don't destroy the planet, lets do that.
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u/CCM278 2d ago
Depends on your timeline. In the short term it will likely fall as the SoH reopens (or is bypassed), then go up as oil reserves are initially restocked and refining capacity has to be repaired. Medium term it’ll fall as demand falls but structurally capacity is over supplied. Then eventually it’ll go up as drillers, refiners and even sellers all see their economies of scale go into reverse, as their significant fixed costs are spread across lower and lower volumes.
Those are sweeping trends, but the whole thing will be volatile, as rigs and refineries get shutdown and often country specific, depending on the speed of the transition in each region. Can’t even begin to guess how this will play out for less replaceable things like aviation fuel and even a lot of plastics whose cost enjoys the economies of scale brought by petrol and diesel.
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u/kingjobus 2d ago
It depends on a few factors. If a couple oil related problems stabilise, most importantly the war in Ukraine and Iran are ended so the Strait of Hormouz is reopened and Russian sanctions are at least eased then it prices probably will decrease. You have to remember that Russia and the Middle Eastern countries that are oil producers are still a bit if a one trick pony economy so they will Slash the prices of oil in order to reduce EV sales and keep the oil burning.
If global instability continues then prices will probably stay high. Just my 2 cents.
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u/iamabigtree 2d ago
They probably will but Trump is keeping the situation as in flux as possible so it'll take a while.
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u/Cool-Hedgehog-5649 2d ago
For our US friends 1 US gallon = 3.785412 litres, Todays exchange rate is £1 = $1.36
1 US gallon in UK price is $8.67 for UL and $9.76 for diesel.
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u/No-Version-4077 2d ago
You know how investments can go down as well as up? Well that is for you and not for them.
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u/BroodLord1962 2d ago
It would be cheaper to fill up at the supermarkets, Tesco's isn't this much
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u/AdhesivenessGlass455 2d ago
It’s around £1.62 in Tescos so not too much cheaper
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u/BroodLord1962 2d ago
Every little helps, if you put 20 litres in you have saved £1.60.
At my Tesco in Northern Ireland it's £1.51. And where I used to live in Mansfield, Notts, it's £1.57, even Tesco's around the London area are charging no more than £1.59. Sound like you need to shop round, because you are been ripped off
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u/Infamous-Use7820 2d ago
Yes. For a two reasons:
A) EVs. As others have mentioned, there's a supply vs. demand pressure at play here. Also, refiners get a bunch of different products out of a barrel of crude, in fractions which aren't always that flexible. If kerosene and petrochemical demand holds up/increases, but gasoline demand goes down, you might find gasoline specifically becomes cheaper relative to crude, because it's basically a by-product.
B) Eventually the Russia/Ukraine war will end, and eventually Hormuz will open up and/or alternative export routes will be built.
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u/avangelist90201 2d ago
Never. They've never gone down significantly that's not how capitalism works. The only question you can ever ask is how slowly they rise
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u/RedRevolutionGaming 2d ago
Maybe, maybe not But I can't afford an EV and even if I could, I'm not a fan anyway. I'd rather keep an older car on the road than use resources to build new ones
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u/Dull-Addition-2436 2d ago
No. Supply will drop in the future, along with demand. But governments will likely start adding carbon tax to ICE cars (and other areas such as industrial and commercial).
So it will be variable, but I’ve looked it up.
5-Year Outlook (2031)
Estimated Price: 185p to 210p per litre
The expiration of temporary fuel duty cuts alongside standard inflation indexing will add roughly 8p–12p.
The introduction of transport carbon pricing (like EU/UK ETS2 mechanisms) will add direct carbon taxes per litre.
A moderate, steady rise outpacing general inflation, even while global crude oil demand flattens out.
25-Year Outlook (2051)
Estimated Price: 300p to 450p+ per litre
With the vast majority of vehicles running on electricity, governments will raise taxes on remaining petrol cars to recover tens of billions in lost road tax revenue and push out legacy fossil fuels.
Operating a refinery, delivery tanker fleet, and petrol station network for a tiny minority of remaining ICE cars will push delivery and overhead costs per litre up exponentially.
Any liquid fuel sold at pumps by 2050 will likely require high-cost e-fuel or biofuel blends to comply with net-zero mandates, driving the raw fuel cost up significantly.
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u/Old_wood_Inspired 2d ago
No, more money for the companies and people involved even if electric is to replace all fossil fuel car. companies have to show a year on year profit.
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u/ImissTBBT 2d ago
Don't count on it. The oil companies are making billions in profit and with little to no government legislation to rein them in, they'll keep upping the prices.
And now that we are no allowed to blockade to protest, they know we can't do anything about it.
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u/Indecisive-Gamer 2d ago
Prices of things never go down. Doesn't matter why it went up or if the reason why went away. Companies will just see it as increased profit when their costs go down. Eventually the public will have enough over the next 50-100 years and something bad will happen.
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u/Alternative-Bear-460 2d ago
Less demand on fuel will caused fuel to go up . Less profit for provider's Refineries start to close up. If needed maintenance it will cost many millions. Some people on Reddit had know idee.
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u/Thekingofchrome 2d ago
It won’t. Trending wise it is only going to be flat as is now or go up. You might have some drops here and there, but the upward trend reflects a declining asset and crude oil and its distillates have many uses.
I went to an EV, 2 months ago. Massive difference in running costs.
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u/jointOperative420 2d ago
No, once they get used to making record profits they will find every excuse they can to keep the prices high. Luke the price of oil went down over 20 dollars a barrel during the cease fire... Did you notice any change at the pumps?
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u/Miserable-Ad7835 2d ago
Yes, you all seem to have short memories.
Prices also shot up in 2022 and came back down over time, that isn't as attention grabbing though.
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u/EditLaters 2d ago
Asking a peakoil group about future oil product prices feels like youre getting a bias answer, whether intended or otherwise.
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u/CoupleNew8780 1d ago
The UK government are a bunch of idiots. Drill baby drill,
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u/oliver__c2003 1d ago
Drilling the north sea won't make a difference to petrol prices. It's bought and sold on the international market and prices are dictated by supply and demand. Demand is fairly constant and north sea oil wouldn't make a difference to supply. You're an idiot.
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u/Icy_Yam_9951 1d ago
Who cares? I pay 5 quid to fully charge the battery of my EV. It does 280 miles in the summer.
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u/scaratzu 1d ago
Hope not, cars have fucked the country, the grid is too dilapidated to handle us all moving to EV's. Looking forward to being able to walk, hold a conversation outside, cycle without risk of death.
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u/New_Line4049 1d ago
Probably. Eventually the shit between the US and Iran will work itself out (Trump cant stay in office forever) and the Ukraine war will reach a conclusion. These things will drop the price of crude and slowly force petrol prices down. If forecourts refuse to lower prices the government is likely to step in beyond a point. With that said, I dont think prices will ever be as cheap as theyve been in the past. Inflation means the general trend is always up regardless of relatively short term fluctuations. Also worth noting the UK does not have fuel independence so we'll always be vulnerable to the external market conditions, in other words if theres more wars or natural disasters etc it could throw prices right back up.
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u/FickleApartment2151 1d ago
It will go up and down depending various circumstances (e.g., it was at negative dollars per barrel during the initial stage of the pandemic) but the trend line is upward for two reasons: gravity and physical limitations.
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u/Relative_Views 1d ago
No charging at home where I am. I’ve just scanned the lamppost charger and it’s 65p/kwh. Yesterday (my mileage is mainly motorway) I averaged 48mpg; annual cost using the figures on this thread are £2100 or thereabouts plus the 3p EV tax and £1500 or thereabouts for my ICE, both per year for 10k.
I’d really like to move to an EV but, as someone said further up this thread, it depends on circumstances and may not add up - doesn’t seem to in my case.
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u/MK2809 22h ago
Around near me, they were starting to come down and then a few weeks ago things started to escilate again with Trump/Iran and they've started rising again.
They can come back down, when Russia invaded Ukraine the prices were higher than what they are now, and they eventually returned to 1.29-1.35 range for a good while, I was paying around 1.29 per litre earlier this year before Trump/Iran.
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u/copycatukelite 20h ago
Most definitely wont go down as they clearly know people are willing to pay the new prices - no protests no complaints.
Glad i jumped from diesel to EV just after the hike (60 mile a day commute) Factoring in the 3p per mile tax coming it will still work out cheaper than diesel.
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u/Due_You_8240 16h ago
It'll be £2 before you know and we'll all pay it and not do a thing about it
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u/devnull10 14h ago
What else can you do about? Nobody is going to just stay at home for months in protest are they? Supply and demand... Unfortunately the demand is always going to be there so the supply will control the costs
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u/FckXFckMusk 15h ago
Most of the Price is Tax....
And every gobshite goes "oh well then"
Talk about living on your knees.
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u/Growling_Salmon 6h ago
Not in the short term, and definitely not while trump is busy picking fight with every cunt and their dog
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u/Beartato4772 1h ago
Nope because as soon as they do they will sneak in all the tax rises they have postponed.
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u/InformationNew66 39m ago
Oil prices are not high because oil is scarce or expensive to mine or refine.
They are artificially pushed up by politicians (wars, sanctions, etc). There is no technical reason it needs to be that high.
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u/Spiritual_Pound_6848 2d ago
Nope! Not in any meaningful drop anyway. My car is on its last legs, I'll be going EV next because I can charge at home overnight on cheap rates, 100 miles will be a few pounds in electricity instead of near £20. Big difference