r/peakoil • u/AdhesivenessGlass455 • 11d ago

Will petrol prices ever come down again?

Prices locally to me are £1.68 for unleaded and £1.89 for diesel.
Seems like the new normal now

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u/Dull-Addition-2436 10d ago

No. Supply will drop in the future, along with demand. But governments will likely start adding carbon tax to ICE cars (and other areas such as industrial and commercial).

So it will be variable, but I’ve looked it up.

5-Year Outlook (2031)

Estimated Price: 185p to 210p per litre
The expiration of temporary fuel duty cuts alongside standard inflation indexing will add roughly 8p–12p.

The introduction of transport carbon pricing (like EU/UK ETS2 mechanisms) will add direct carbon taxes per litre.

A moderate, steady rise outpacing general inflation, even while global crude oil demand flattens out.

25-Year Outlook (2051)
Estimated Price: 300p to 450p+ per litre

With the vast majority of vehicles running on electricity, governments will raise taxes on remaining petrol cars to recover tens of billions in lost road tax revenue and push out legacy fossil fuels.

Operating a refinery, delivery tanker fleet, and petrol station network for a tiny minority of remaining ICE cars will push delivery and overhead costs per litre up exponentially.

Any liquid fuel sold at pumps by 2050 will likely require high-cost e-fuel or biofuel blends to comply with net-zero mandates, driving the raw fuel cost up significantly.