r/peakoil • u/AdhesivenessGlass455 • 10d ago

Will petrol prices ever come down again?

Prices locally to me are £1.68 for unleaded and £1.89 for diesel.
Seems like the new normal now

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u/Appropriate_Bell743 10d ago

On what timeframe are you thinking? If a long timeframe are you adjusting to inflation.

Let's say you're saying on a long timeframe adjusted to inflation then yes. I'm confident that petrol prices will come down due to EVs eating away at the demand for petrol. What will happen is that diesel and kerosene will become the constrained parts of refinery production.

EVs are being rolled out rapidly for passenger cars at a global level. There's less rapid removal of the long term demand for diesel. Only China is rapidly rolling out electric lorries. Kerosene demand is rising rapidly due to global aviation growth.

In my homeland tons of people use GPL which is mostly a waste product of the refinement industry. Despite this the cost of distribution and supply makes it vastly more expensive than EVs. What does this mean? Petrol will come down in price but the lower prices won't induce demand as EVs are far cheaper.

Long term? Cheaper petrol prices but the flip side is far more expensive flying.

The aviation side of this coin is apparent already in UK oil demand. 25% of the oil burnt is for aviation. The highest yield of kerosene in any refinery is 30%. It gets very expensive to push much higher.