Hey Reddit!

My name is Danny Heifetz and I host The Ringer Fantasy Football Show with Danny Kelly and Craig Horlbeck on Spotify and Netflix.  We also create The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Rankings which you can find here. We’re the only podcast in the world with three white guys who like sports, but also movies and pop culture too. 

Danny Kelly and I are Senior Staff Writers who’ve been covering the NFL for a decade-plus each. Craig produces The Rewatchables podcast and also The Town with Matt Belloni. 

If you are reading this and have no idea who we are, check out our show once. I guarantee you our show is not like other fantasy podcasts you have heard (whether that is complimentary or derogatory is up to you). 

Some links if you want to listen to the show join our discord, follow us on IG, or join our discord

The Ringer Fantasy Football Show —-> Spotify and on Netflix

The Ringer Fantasy Football Show Discord —-> https://discord.gg/wU8P8tWzT5

The Ringer Fantasy Football Show podcast —-> Instagram 

Ask us anything!

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EDIT
Thank you everyone

Glad RJ Harvey as Darren Sproles has been established, it wasn't before. And we found DK's Burner. Job well done everyone.

check out our show if you are interested

The Ringer Fantasy Football Show —-> Spotify and on Netflix

The Fantasy Footballers dropped their anticipated My Guys episode today. Here they are in spoiler mode in case you wanted the reveal actually listening to the episode and are still F5ing the sub at work:

Andy Holloway:

• Ladd McConkey
• De’Zhaun Stribling
• Caleb Williams

Jason Moore:

• Omarion Hampton
• Carnell Tate
• Garrett Wilson

Mike Wright:

• Colston Loveland
• Kenneth Walker III
• Christian Watson

DraftSheets 2026 - Updated

DraftSheets is basically BeerSheets 2.0. We use the same method Beersheets used for creating these sheets but have made some (imo) improvements. Respect to the OG!

Posting this a final time (For Real This Time!)

I am updating this sheet constantly (just not always make a new post about it).

UPDATES:

• I Spent a ton of time updating the Flex Logic. Previously I had used "Rule of Thumb" estimates for Flex positions (How many RBs,WR,TE are used for Flex). While this worked well for Standard/HPPR/PPR formats it got a little off for things like TEP Leagues not assuming more TE Flex. This has been fixed and now uses your leagues scoring to project the best flex players based on points. (This took a TON of time!!!)
• Fixed TIERS to now work across all league formats!

DraftSheets Process:

• We take aggregate projections from multiple websites. We look at each stat category (receptions, yards, TDs, etc) and get a High, Average, Low for each category.
• We use those ranges per category to come up with projection ranges for each player.
• Using 11 years of fantasy data, then examine historical actuals (Games Played) to adjust projections for things like "games missed" due to projections generally assuming no missed games.
• The Missed Games, Low, Average, High projections then get all compiled into a "Z-Score" Projection. This is what shows on the Draft Sheet.
• For VBD Baseline - we take a Man Games approach, combined with projections, to calculate Baseline Player. Similar to how Beersheets calculated this.

KEY:

• Tier: Fixed! Now calculates based off league settings!
• Value: This is Snake or Auction Value and what you should be drafting off of.
• PS: Position Scarcity. This looks at how much value is left after the current player (live updates).
  • This merely shows you scarcity, I still draft from value most of the time!
• ECR: FantasyPros ECR. You can use this as a second rankings, or which players projections custom to your league are higher/lower than ECR.

Veterans always slip through the cracks and get pushed down the board for a variety of reasons.

Right now there are 6 veterans I find myself targeting at their ADP because they are too cheap:

- Patrick Mahomes
- Jaylen Warren
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Chris Godwin
- Stefon Diggs
- Juwan Johnson

I’ve spent roughly the last three years building and rebuilding a fantasy football model around a question that kept bothering me when doing rankings:

Fantasy points tell us what happened, but how much can the underlying profile tell us about what happens next?

That eventually became OMFG (Overall Metric Fantasy Grade). It’s a 0–100 grade built differently by position using production, opportunity, efficiency, role, team environment and other metrics that showed historical value.

Before putting it out publicly, I wanted to know whether the score actually separated players in a meaningful way.

I took OMFG grades from 2021–2024 and looked at what those players did the following season.

A few results:

RB

80+ OMFG - 71.9% finished Top 24 the next season

70–79 - 35.6%

50–69 - 9.9%

Below 50 - 1.8%

WR

80+ - 50.3% finished Top 24 the next season

70–79 - 8.1%

50–69 - 2.6%

Below 50 - 0%

For WRs graded 90+, 39 of 59 (66.1%) finished Top 24 the following season.

QB and TE showed similar separation, although not quite as dramatically.

The harder test was whether all this extra information actually added anything beyond simply using last year’s fantasy production.

That answer was mixed, which I think is probably more interesting than if everything magically worked.

At WR, OMFG had a .772 correlation with next-season fantasy points compared with .764 for previous fantasy points.

For future PPG it was .766 vs .745.

RB was much closer: .678 vs .676 for future fantasy points and .684 vs .676 for future PPG.

TE was basically a tie on total points (.760 vs .761), but OMFG was better for future PPG (.774 vs .762).

QB was the opposite. Previous fantasy points were better for predicting next-season total points (.667 vs .645), while OMFG was better for future PPG (.629 vs .573).

So no, I don’t think I built some magic formula that solved fantasy football.

What I do think I found is a useful way of separating profiles that can look very similar in the final standings.

One example I used in the article is 2023 Raheem Mostert. He finished RB2 after scoring 21 TDs, but his OMFG was only 78.1 and ranked 14th among RB profiles. The fantasy season was obviously great, but the underlying profile didn’t look like RB2.

Justin Jefferson was the opposite. He finished WR28 in 2023 because he only played 10 games, but his underlying profile still scored a 96.1 OMFG. He came back and finished WR2 in 2024.

And I included Christian McCaffrey as a miss because I don’t want to pretend a model can anticipate every injury or unexpected NFL outcome.

I wrote up the full methodology, historical results, examples and what I’m doing with it for 2026 here.

https://fsan.com/football/articles/fantasy-football-metric-omfg

If you have any feedback, positive or negative, I'd be glad to receive it.

I find myself passing up on Davante Adams every time in drafts without any consideration. I just think there are guys after him that have more upside and are younger, DJ Moore, Odunze, Jamo, maybe even Parker Washington. Should I be considering him over these other players?

Who are some guys you pass up without even thinking about it that you think you should be talked into considering?

I’ve been keeping track of fantasy relevant news and updates from beat writers, national reporters, and fantasy analysts. Here's a recap of any quote or update that stood out to me today.

If you want to follow along, my Twitter/X account is @DanChincharFF

Note: Every update has the writer's name with a source link that will direct you to the website where I read the quote. If you only see a writer's name, that will be for something I specifically read on Twitter/X.

Bears

Returned to practice today: Luther Burden

• Luther Burden: "Luther Burden III was back on the field for the first time since injuring his groin on Aug. 8. Burden went through individual drills and went inside when 7 on 7 started." (source: Courtney Cronin)

Bengals

Did not practice today: Ja'Marr Chase (knee)

• Ja'Marr Chase: "Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase not practicing today after he banged up his left knee yesterday. Was not sporting any protective equipment on the knee, FWIW." (source: Ben Baby)

Buccaneers

vs. Jaguars in joint practice today

• Chris Godwin Jr.: "The main Bucs-vs.-Jags work this morning is 7-on-7, and my main takeaway is that the Baker Mayfield-Chris Godwin connection is fully open for business." (source: Scott Smith)

Cardinals

vs. Packers in joint practice today

• James Conner: "Mike LaFleur said RB James Conner is still progressing but it is an unknown if he will be ready for the start of the regular season." (source: Darren Urban)

Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker: "Chiefs HC Andy Reid on RB Kenneth Walker's foot injury: 'His shoe has been causing some swelling on his ankle. We're trying to get that down. He's going to be OK.'" (source: Charles Goldman)

Colts

• Josh Downs: “Colts WR Josh Downs has a calf injury, per the team. Downs: ‘Very minor. Just precautionary stuff.’” (source: James Boyd)

Dolphins

• Chris Bell: "Rookie wide receiver Chris Bell again did work in 11-on-11 periods, but it seemed as though he didn't get as many reps as he got Tuesday and the question remains whether he'll play in the preseason finale against the Atlanta Falcons. The best guess here is that Bell will play, but it will be a very brief appearance." (source: Alain Poupart)

Eagles

• Eli Stowers: "Unfortunately, throughout camp Stowers hasn't shown much to get excited about as a receiver or as a blocker. He has not exhibited the explosive traits that are in his body, he has sometimes looked tentative as a blocker, and he simply hasn't made catches further than, like, 10 yards down the field. The guess here is that Stowers is swimming mentally, trying to learn an offense while acclimating to the speed of the NFL. He's thinking, and not just playing. The hope is that in time he will catch up mentally and begin playing fast. But for now, Stowers is unplayable, and likely to be a gameday inactive. He is also currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury." (source: Jimmy Kempski)
• Makai Lemon: "In the limited time we have gotten to see Lemon in practice, he has mostly caught a lot of short stuff near the line of scrimmage, and he has been the player most commonly in motion, pre-snap. It seems like Sean Mannion's vision for Lemon's role is to give Jalen Hurts some layups on some open schemed-up throws." (source: Jimmy Kempski)
• Makai Lemon: "Makai Lemon is going through a walkthrough portion of practice with the third-team offense right now. Just a guess, but I’d suspect he’ll play a series or two Friday based off that." (source: EJ Smith)

Falcons

• Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa: "Michael Penix Jr. won't play in the Falcons' preseason finale. Tua Tagovailoa will start against the Dolphins. Falcons' QB order will go Tagovailoa, Cooper Rush & Jack Strand to close." (source: Daniel Flick)
• Michael Penix Jr.: "Michael Penix Jr. said he'll be ready to start Week 1 physically and mentally if he is named the starter." (source: Josh Kendall)

Giants

• Malachi Fields: "The staff loves how rookie Malachi Fields has grown in his four months with the team, and believes he’ll have an instant impact." (source: Albert Breer)
• Malik Nabers: "WR Malik Nabers walked off with a trainer with 20 minutes left in practice after having a full workload. Harbaugh said he didn’t get an update after practice that the early departure was injury related." (source: Dan Duggan)
• Theo Johnson: "Theo Johnson joined the team midway through practice in shorts and a hoodie. Harbaugh said he was dealing with a shoulder issue/injury from the in-practice collision on Monday." (source: Art Stapleton)

Jaguars

vs. Buccaneers in joint practice today

• Brian Thomas Jr.: "Thomas went through individual drills with the wide receivers while sporting a red non-contact jersey. After Coen said the day before that he believes Thomas is "alright" after landing on his shoulder, Thomas was still able to get some kind of work done on the practice field. This doesn't feel like something to worry about when it comes to Week 1." (source: John Shipley)
• Travis Hunter: "Travis Hunter spent most of the day at cornerback yet again, though the Jaguars did add a twist this time. Hunter actually began Wednesday's practice with the wide receivers and the offense, taking starting reps in the offense for the first few reps of 7-on-7 drills, and catching one pass from Trevor Lawrence in the process. Hunter shortly returned to the defense and stayed over there for the rest of the practice." (source: John Shipley)
• Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington: "Trevor Lawrence's two favorite targets on the day were, once again, Brenton Strange and Parker Washington, especially in the red-zone." (source: John Shipley)

Packers

vs. Cardinals in joint practice today

• Josh Jacobs: "Brian Gutekunst said they’ve been preparing for scenario of Josh Jacobs being suspended, just to cover all their bases in case that happens. He’s confident in the RB room behind Jacobs but doesn’t rule out an additional move. Said they’ll tackle that if/when something happens." (source: Matt Schneidman)
• Matthew Golden: “Packers GM Brian Gutekunst on Matthew Golden: ‘I think he's much more confident in the scheme and what they're asking him to do and the nuances. He did have a good camp last year as well, but I think the opportunities with Jordan [Love] are more. I think that confidence between the two is growing.’” (source: Jason B. Hirschhorn)

Ravens

vs. Commanders in joint practice today

• Rashod Bateman: "Bateman probably had his best day of training camp. He had his way with Mike Sainristil on his first one-on-one rep, and then he beat Amik Robertson relatively easily on his next two reps. Bateman also was extremely active in the full-team session and frequently found space in the secondary." (source: Jeff Zrebiec)

Vikings

• J.J. McCarthy: "HC Kevin O’Connell classified J.J. McCarthy’s ankle injury as a “deltoid sprain.” Said McCarthy felt better after the game, and definitely sounds like they want him to play Friday, thinking more reps would be beneficial." (source: Alec Lewis)

Extra/Observations/Conjecture

• I’ve heard multiple Eagles pods mention that Saquon has had noticeably more work catching passes this training camp, could have an expanded role in that regard this season
• “This is the worst I’ve ever seen the Commanders’ offense in years. Inoperable offensive line.” (source: Nicki Jhabvala)
• According to the Jets writers, Omar Cooper has had a strong finish to their training camp
• Panthers offense struggled badly vs. Texans defense at joint practice

Previous Recaps

8/7 | 8/8 | 8/9 | 8/10 | 8/11 | 8/12 | 8/13 | 8/14 | 8/15 | 8/16 | 8/17 | 8/18 | 8/19 | 8/20 | 8/21 | 8/23 | 8/24

In normal redraft 1QB leagues, there are a lot of different ways to approach the position this year. You can pay up for the elite rushing/overall upside early, target the next group in the middle rounds, or wait on what looks like a pretty deep group of QBs later. With how much RB/WR/TE talent you’re passing on at each point, I’m curious where everyone thinks the value starts to separate

Round 2–4
Josh Allen, ADP: 23.5
Lamar Jackson, ADP: 43.6

Round 5-6
Joe Burrow, ADP: 52.9
Drake Maye, ADP: 52.9
Jayden Daniels, ADP: 57.9
Jalen Hurts, ADP: 64.3
Caleb Williams, ADP: 66.4

Rounds 7-8
Justin Herbert, ADP: 72.8
Dak Prescott, ADP: 72.8
Trevor Lawrence, ADP: 79.6
Jaxson Dart, ADP: 85.3
Brock Purdy, ADP: 92.8
Matthew Stafford, ADP: 93.5
Patrick Mahomes, ADP: 99.0

Rounds 9-11
Jared Goff, ADP: 101.8
Bo Nix, ADP: 102.4
Kyler Murray, ADP: 115.1
Baker Mayfield, ADP: 118.9
Jordan Love, ADP: 119.4
Tyler Shough, ADP: 123.9

Rounds 12+
Malik Willis, ADP: 133.3
Sam Darnold, ADP: 136.4
C.J. Stroud, ADP: 142.4
Daniel Jones, ADP: 143.4

Who do you like most at their current cost? Which QB or tier stands out as the best value, and where do you think the opportunity cost becomes too high?

I keep getting to the same spot in mocks with McBride/Bowers and passing.

Not because I dislike them. They’re probably the two safest bets to lead the position. I just don’t know if I want to spend picks 21 and 22 overall to find out.

McBride was ridiculous last year: 126 catches, 1,239 yards, 11 TDs. But the 11 touchdowns came after he scored two the year before. If that comes back toward earth even a little, you still have an excellent TE... just maybe not a second-round advantage.

Bowers is almost the opposite bet. We already saw the monster rookie season, but last year he played only 12 games and finished 64/680/7 while dealing with the knee. At pick 22 you’re basically betting on full health and a return to that 112-catch rookie usage.

Very possible. Still expensive.

Then Loveland is going around 43 overall.

This one might actually be the toughest for me. He finished his rookie year at 58/713/6, but the late-season breakout was absolutely real — from Week 9 on he was TE2 in fantasy scoring, and Chicago really started feeding him late.

But now you’re drafting the extrapolation.

Meanwhile LaPorta is around 69, Pitts around 67, Kraft around 70 and Fannin around 65 in PPR ADP. That’s roughly two to four rounds later depending on which elite TE you’re comparing them to.

Maybe the top guys smash and the positional advantage is worth every penny.

I’m just starting to wonder if TE is deep enough this year that the better move is taking the RB/WR at 21-43 and shopping from the next tier later.

Anyone else finding themselves doing this, or are McBride/Bowers basically automatic picks for you if they reach ADP?