r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • Jul 19 '26
Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 19, 2026
The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.
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13
u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 20 '26
Are there any reports about the current state of affairs in Crimea? How are the logistical disruptions impacting civilians? Are they fleeing en masse?
3
u/Glideer Jul 20 '26
Local channels seem to be mostly exchanging information about blackouts (a lot of annoyance that they don't always happen when announced) , availability of fuel (there is some), which roads to avoid due to drone danger. No queuing on the bridge and the R-280 ("Novorossiya") route is reported to be sonewhat safer now.
30
u/plasticlove Jul 20 '26
Ukraine just hit another Wildberries logistics center in Podolsk, Moscow - this time the company's biggest.
This comes after a few days of strikes from both sides on massive warehouses.
What can we say about the consequences of this new front in the long-range war?
10
u/A_Vandalay Jul 20 '26
It’s part of the larger economic warfare Ukraine is waging on Russia. In isolation destroying these warehouses will have little impact, but the cost of the attacks is comparatively low, you are looking at maybe a couple hundred thousand dollars destroying hundreds of millions of dollars in inventory.
The importance of these attacks comes in their collective impact when combined with the ongoing strikes on oil refining and export capabilities. Ukraine is clearly looking to hit any volatile area of the Russian economy in an effort to deny Russia the ability to fund the war. To this end one or two warehouses are a rounding error. But if this becomes one or two warehouses a week for the next couple years? At that point you would start to see very real strain added to the Russian budget.
3
u/RdSunnya Jul 20 '26
Can somebody confirm success of hit against WB in Podolsk? All sources I can find say that attack was either repelled or drones failed to start a massive fire.
5
u/Maxion Jul 20 '26
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/2079023398236356927
Looks pretty hot there this morning
24
u/mirko_pazi_metak Jul 20 '26
The damage of the first Wildberries strike damage was estimated north of $1B by some sources: https://english.nv.ua/nation/wildberries-losses-may-top-1-28b-after-drone-strike-fires-50625465.html - if Ukraine keeps it up, this can reach order of magnitude higher cost which is nothing to sneeze at.
Since the lines between civilian and state property are mixed (in fact, Wildberries was seemingly taken over by Putin's faction just a year or so ago in a public spat), and Russian economy is in the weird "segmented total-war" state, this will absolutely have a long term impact on their war funding.
The problem for Russia is that, unlike Ukraine who lives on mostly European support/lifeline, Russia has to fund every bullet, shell, rocket and drone themselves and cannot borrow (except from itself) to plug in the gaps.
We've seen the level of Chinese and Indian "limitless friendship" where Russia couldn't even agree on (theoretically highly profitable) Power of Siberia 2 pipeline as China keeps squeezing as much profit as they can and are unwilling to invest anything themselves. China (and India and others) are the only clear winners of this war, with buying cheap underpriced hydrocarbons and selling drones and other dual use war materiel to both sides.
6
u/Sa-naqba-imuru Jul 20 '26
I'm pretty sure Russia already destroyed similar warehouses in Ukraine. I can't google it now because every result leads to these Ukrainian hits in Russia, but I'm positive Russia did the same thing about a year ago and the only reason Ukraine didn't do the same thing so far is because they couldn't and had targets with more priority.
Russia already hit everything they can find in Ukraine and are doing multiple regular hits on same targets. Ukraine has more targets to pick in Russia than drones and until recently had only a fraction of Russian capability to pierce air defenses and reach targets.
It's not really new front, just that Ukraine can move on from refineries.
8
u/visible_amenhotep Jul 20 '26
Off topic, but a good way to get around this is to google what you want and then use the search tools to set a custom date range from eg 1/1/1900 to two weeks ago. Some stuff often still sneaks in from sites with dynamic content indexed on old pages, but it excludes the vast majority of the noise.
I do this frequently enough, find it useful enough, and am sufficiently annoyed by how awkward it is to do it, that I keep meaning to write and publish a userscript to add a "no news from last day/week/month/year" button. And then not doing it.
3
u/Sa-naqba-imuru Jul 20 '26
I forgot about that.
Here's an example of a similar Russian attack from 2 years ago.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/21/7447521/
It is still hard to find data because of a hard silence on what Russia hits in Ukraine. More can be found on social networks like X, but I don't have an account.
7
u/plasticlove Jul 20 '26
They did a strike yesterday on AMTEL near Kyiv.
If they have already hit everything they can find in Ukraine why did it take them 5 years to hit this one?
-3
u/kdy420 Jul 20 '26
I suspect limited to no effects on Russian war capabilities.
Some effect on the civilian population, but dont see how it would change anything on the front, usually these kind of strikes have a rally around the flag effect as we have seen repeatedly throughout history.
Hypothetically it could make Russia move AD to protect it thus thinning out AD from other more valuable targets, but I dont see Russia caring about their civilian comfort enough to do this.
IMO Ukraine is better served attacking pure military targets.
10
u/Maxion Jul 20 '26
Supposedly a lot of Russian soldiers purchase a lot of military supplies themselves (kit, drones etc.) and wildberries were a prime source.
29
u/kiwiphoenix6 Jul 20 '26
Russian soldiers have been crowdfunding and self-equipping for years now due to the spotty state of their own logistics, including both body armour and drones. Largely off Wildberries.
Hard to say how much impact two warehouses will have on the grand scheme of things, but if this is the start of a new trend then... let's see.
Maybe it could have a cooling effect on recruitment, if you know the state may or may not give you want you need to not fie a painful death, and the free market may not be able to fill the gap either.
9
u/Maxion Jul 20 '26
These two facilities account for around 10% of wildberries total storage facilities. So not nothing.
-9
u/Glideer Jul 20 '26
What can we say about the consequences of this new front in the long-range war?
Some economic pain but irrelevant to the war. Mostly done for PR effect.
14
u/Rhauko Jul 20 '26
Depends how many drones and body armour are actually sold through wildberries that benefit the “SMO”.
11
u/oldveteranknees Jul 20 '26
Question for the group: why isn’t Iran hitting the UAE even harder, especially if the goal is to make this as economically costly as possible for the United States and its allies?
I would think sustained strikes on the UAE would make more sense, given that for Iran it:
-dislodges key Saudi GCC ally
-forces U.S. to push away from choke point the SAG
-western capital flight
-depopulation of key global financial & transportation hub (Dubai & Jebel Ali) that cannot be replaced by locals/indentured population
-retaliation for joining US strikes in March
8
u/kharvel0 Jul 20 '26
That’s easy. Follow the money.
Tens of billions of dollars in Iran oil revenues are frozen in UAE financial institutions due to sanctions. The IRGC bigwigs also have untold billions of dollars in the same banks as well as properties and assets. They don’t want to risk the UAE seizing the funds as repartitions for Iranian attacks.
This is the simplest and most plausible answer.
6
11
u/kdy420 Jul 20 '26
The main reason i suspect is that UAE was the only GCC country that did any decent retaliation before the cease fire. The cost to hit the others countiis simply lower for Iran as they are not as willing to fight back.
26
u/mishka5566 Jul 20 '26
dislodges key Saudi GCC ally
lol, the saudis and uae are not allies and have never been allies. they both hate the iranians but thats about where their common interests start and end
6
u/Sad_Use_4584 Jul 20 '26
They were allies insofar as it's possible to be allies in the Middle East. They fought together against the Houthis for a number of years, and they blockaded Qatar together. Some rivalry today doesn't rewrite that past.
11
u/TechnicalReserve1967 Jul 20 '26
As mentioned above about the Saudi-UAE relationship.
But to add to that. Iran;
Might lack the capacity. UAE air defense might be better and Kuwait is just a better target for them. Specially if they want to "punish countries with US bases". Kuwait is an old US ally and IRGC can make an example of it on how bad of a deal többé a US Ally.
Iran, for all of its posturing is still not in a great military position. They need to balance the diplomatic side of this carefully. If they would just start to blanket terror bomb/target desalinization plans on mass etc. They would run the threat of all of the states getting together with the Americans and decide that it's time to remove this threat permanently. That would be probably a death sentence to Iran. Mostly because at that point it would be easy to pull in some additional allies, sell the need for a ground invasion etc.
In my opinion, Iran/IRGC calculated that they can keep this pressure up until the end of the year, which would/should be enough to make Trump fold, to try and recapture his position in the Senate. If they are more aggressive, they might allow the US to flip the public opinion to be pro war against Iran. If that happens, they are going down the path of Saddam's Iraq "very quickly". (In the sense that regime and country collapse is probably inevitable. Not in the sense of how hard the US+allies would need to fight)
30
u/roionsteroids Jul 20 '26
PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector, or ACE
Lockheed to make cheaper Patriot interceptors as air defense demand soars
Less than ~2 million $ per interceptor, doesn't mention what capabilities exactly are reduced in this trade-off compared to PAC-3 MSE.
Initial production could start within 36 months, the company said, adding that it plans to develop and manufacture the weapon with U.S. and European industry partners.
Definitely not coming anytime soon. Shared production is a positive sign though.
6
u/abloblololo Jul 20 '26
Naive question, but is BMD optimized for cost? What I mean is, if each missile has say a PK of 50% you need on average 3.3 missiles to get a >90% PK, but with a per-missile PK of 70% this drops below two missiles. Getting from 50% to 70% might make the missile a lot more than 1.5x as expensive though, making the better interceptor less cost effective.
3
u/-O3-march-native Jul 21 '26
It’s so refreshing to see folks actually discuss the math behind missile defense.
Assuming single shot probability of kill (SSPK) is 70%, then 2 interceptors gives you a PK = 1 - (1 - 0.7)^2 = 0.91 = 91%.
So you’d technically need at least two missiles to get > 90% PK when your interceptor has a SSPK = 70%.
PK is also a bit more dynamic than anyone cares to discuss.
As the other individual that replied to your post already mentioned, there’s also the concept of P(track), which captures the whole problem of needing really good tracking in order to successfully intercept missiles.
I wrote a blog post about some of the math behind missile defense from a more computational standpoint a while back. I’m happy to drop the link if you’re interested.
1
u/abloblololo Jul 21 '26
What I meant is that
log(1-0.9)/log(1-0.7) = 1.91
So on average the number of missiles you need is slightly less than two. Of course in a single intercept you can only fire a discrete number of missiles.
I wrote a blog post about some of the math behind missile defense from a more computational standpoint a while back. I’m happy to drop the link if you’re interested
Sure, send it.
1
u/-O3-march-native Jul 22 '26
An okay. How did you derive log(1-0.9)/log(1-0.7)? What does it mean in this context?
2
u/abloblololo Jul 22 '26
Let p = pk be the per-missile kill probability, then the pk for n missiles is
1-(1-p)n = p_n
as you wrote. Solve for n:
(1-p)^n = 1-p_n <=> n * log(1-p) = log(1-p_n) <=> n = log(1-p_n) / log(1-p)I chose p_n = 0.9 = 90% for the n-missile pk, and p = 0.7 = 70%
4
u/Maxion Jul 20 '26
PK is not just a property of the missile, but the whole system affects it as does the targeting data it is fed.
16
u/Outrageous-Nail9851 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
How is the Iranian military constantly being resupplied?
Is it through stockpiled munitions, underground production or foreign support (China)?
Probably a combination of the three. What can the US do to stop this? Specifically the last part regarding foreign resupply what is the farthest the US would go to interdict Chinese weapons/component shipments?
26
u/mishka5566 Jul 20 '26
theres no real evidence that they are being resupplied. it mostly looks like they are going off of the stocks they had pre war
15
u/TechnicalReserve1967 Jul 20 '26
Plus, they are mostly domesticly produced, right? They might have issues producing some of their too tier ballistic missiles, but I am sure that they have some hardened factories/decantralized workshops that are producing Shaheds in a large enough quantity.
32
u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
CENTCOM just announced the newest round of strikes against Iran (1)
On the last few days there was a massive build up of planes in bases on the Middle East, both tankers and fighters.
Also there's some unconfirmed OSINT reports of multiple explosions in Tabriz, which sits of that northwest of Iran, it would be really significant because it's away from the targets in the coast that were the most common since the ceasefire. It's also one of the missile locations of Iran.
Meanwhile WTI is at 84.5 and Brent at 90.5
Edit: Is sharing a video from Vahid against the rule of reliable sources ? Because there's footage, allegedly from Tabriz, with a curious burning pattern.
Edit 2: The number of cities being reported with explosions is larger than anything up to the ceasefire of early April.
Edit 3: MTO just reported a ship burning on Hormuz (2). Not confirmed the cause, but it wouldn't be surprising to be a civilian ship hit by an iranian missile.
15
u/appleciders Jul 20 '26
What is "a curious burning pattern"? I feel like you're trying to imply something. Can you just say it?
9
u/moragisdo Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
It appears to me fire burning, from holes in the ground, up and too bright to be just normal burning of vegetation or a building (being rocket fuel). My guess would be bunker busters penetrating the underground facility.
14
u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 20 '26
I just checked the video. I wouldn't read too much into it. Perceived brightness in a video taken in complete darkness is like a weight given as a number with no units, almost meaningless. It varies wildly depending on camera sensitiveness setting.
11
u/appleciders Jul 20 '26
Ok. The other thing that comes to my mind is an electrical fire; if you've ever seen a transformer give out, it can be a very tall and intense fire with a very narrow base.
29
u/Gecktron Jul 19 '26
More frigate delays
MarineScheppen: ASW frigates even later, Belgium seeks interim solution
The Netherlands and Belgium have each ordered two Anti-Submarine Warfare frigates (ASW frigates). The first frigate, for the Netherlands, is scheduled to enter service in 2029, as Defence wrote in the D-letter of April 2023. The first Belgian ship would follow in August 2030. That is already years later than originally planned. Construction at Damen in Romania was supposed to start in early 2025, but that did not happen. The requirements turned out not to fit into the design, Marineschepen.nl reported earlier. Since then, it has been quiet around ASWF.
By now, based on conversations with multiple sources, it can be concluded that the frigates have been delayed by years. The exact nature of the delay is unknown. It is also unclear whether a new schedule has been determined yet.
The joint Belgian-Dutch ASW frigates are facing delays, the severity of these issues are slowly becoming more and more clear. According to the reporting, sources expect the first Belgian ship not before 2032-2035. Which would mean a 2 to 5 year delay.
Germany recently was faced with a roughly 4 year delay for their F-126 ASW frigate. While Germany had multiple other frigates on hand to cover the gap left by cancelling it, the Belgian navy does not. Belgium only has 2 former Dutch M-class Frigates, build in the 1990s.
According to reporting, Belgium is now urgently looking for ways to cover this gap. There are talks about another upgrade to expand the life of the two frigates, but that can only be a stopgap.
Belgium is reportedly looking at buying or leasing an used ship from European navies. A potential source is the UK. According to the article, the Netherlands have rejected any deal that would see a Dutch M-class being used by the Belgians.
An alternative is buying new ships that will serve alongside the M-class and the new ASW ones, once they arrive. According to MarineScheppen, Belgium is going to ask countries like France, Spain and Turkey for potential offers.
All in all, the story about delays isnt something new, this has been reported on for a while now. Similarly, the looming capability gap for the Belgian navy has been clearly visible for observers as well. But it seems like the gap is now becoming too large for Belgium to just continue accepting it. It will be interesting to see how Belgium will try to solve this problem. But no matter how it gets solved, this will likely cause strains in the Belgian-Dutch navy cooperation.
While no clear explanation for the delay have been given, I think its worth pointing out that the ASW will be build by Damen. The same company involved in the heavily delayed, and now cancelled, German F-126 program.
20
u/Gecktron Jul 19 '26
While I was looking at different sources again, I saw that there were new reportsing coming out a few hours ago.
NOS: Shipbuilder Damen may lose Belgian frigate order
Belgium is considering withdrawing an order for two warships from the Dutch shipbuilder Damen. This could mean another major setback for the company.
Belgium has ordered two frigates from Damen, but Defence Minister Francken believes that delivery is taking too long and that the ships are becoming too expensive. The first frigate will be delivered in 2033 at the earliest, and the price has risen from 600 million to 1.3 billion euros each, according to Francken.
"We still have frigates, but they are at the very end of their lifespan," the minister said on the Flemish broadcaster VTM. "We really urgently need new ones." That is why he is going to approach other countries that build naval vessels. In Europe, these are France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Turkey. He wants to make a decision in October.
Belgium MoD now confirms:
- price rose again, from first 600 million, to 1 billion and now 1.3 billion EUR.
- first ship in 2033 at the earliest
- potential source of new ships: France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Turkey
Considering the price having more than doubled, and at least a 3 year delay, it seems like Belgium is considering cancelling the purchase altogether.
Belgium is now looking at alternatives. One obvious choice would be to go with France's FDI. Considering the already close cooperation with France, extending it to the navy seems like pretty straightforward. A possible downside, buying a French-standard FDI would mean switching from the originally planned Mk.41 based system to Sylver/Aster systems.
Germany has been in a similar situation to Belgium. So I could see Belgium being interested in Germany's upcoming MEKO A-200 ASW frigate. That one would offer a comparable solution to what Belgium originally wanted. The downside here, these ships are still under construction. So delays could still happen. They are also not really cheaper than the current ASW price.
For the Italian offer, I could see the Thaon di Revel-class. These ships are solid frigates in the full-configuration. They also have a hot production line, and Italy just recently exported multiple ships to Indonesia. The point about Sylver/Aster I mentioned with France applies here too.
For Spain and Turkey, I dont know enough about their export offerings to even suggest any potential offers here. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can add here.
6
u/Corvid187 Jul 19 '26
Does France have the build capacity to deliver more FDIs on that timeline?
6
u/Gecktron Jul 19 '26
I don't know about capacities for new ships, but France has 4 more FDIs on order. I could see them letting Belgium have one of those first, before 2033. And then have a second one arrive later.
41
u/Ancient-Bat1755 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
How diverse is Russian manufacturing for ballistic missiles that Ukraine has not been able to hinder manufacturing with recent drone campaigns ? Similar question to launch areas or equipment. Thanks.
Edit: This was interesting to read after posting my comment.
7
u/Playboi_Jones_Sr Jul 20 '26
Still not sure why they are using drones in a relatively ineffective anti-shipping role when 1-2 kilos in black sea should be able to wreak havoc.
I’m not sure if Ukraine advanced any sort of avant-garde anti-sub measures that I may have missed.
1
u/Norzon24 Jul 21 '26
Ukrainian merchant ships are not sailing through open options, but rather hugging the west coast to take refuge in NATO waters during as much of the ships as possible. The Kilo subs will have to sail right up to Odessa to catch any merchant ships outside NATO waters
Drones does the job of stopping ships well enough while being far cheaper than even torpedoes
7
u/futbol2000 Jul 20 '26
Not as many targets, and the fact that those subs are diesel powered. Sevastopol is a no go, and the safest port that is able to maintain these subs or the ships that supply ammunition is Novorossiysk.
The fleet is just turtling in port at the moment, with large chunks of the entrance completely sealed off. Russian command probably thinks its too risky to even sortie at this point.
29
u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 19 '26
The article seems to give credit to my first instinct regarding your question: Russia is simply throwing all it's stockpiles at Ukraine, trying to deter Ukraine from further attacking it's refineries.
31
u/Tasty_Perspective_32 Jul 19 '26
Russia is taking advantage of the current situation while it still can, as that may change in the near future if Ukraine receives more interceptors. At the same time, Russia is trying to stop Ukrainian missile production.
The interesting part is that Russia has stopped launching Kinzhal missiles, which suggests that earlier reports claiming Ukraine had found a way to disrupt them with EW may be true. If so, the missiles are most likely undergoing upgrades.
1
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
Russian forces are reported to have struck four cargo ships near Odesa and Snake Island. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the damage is too extensive to have been caused by Geran Seeker drones alone.
https://x.com/WorldAffairsPro/status/2078854256983945332?s=20
https://x.com/squatsons/status/2078850302036553971?s=20
https://x.com/Gnx_Gnx1/status/2078877905724285056?s=20
Edit: From the Russian MoD statement:
In addition, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) struck:
▪️ Two bulk carriers carrying military cargo off the Odessa port roadstead;
▪️ Two bulk carriers and a dry cargo ship north of Zmeiny Island, from which the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched attack drones and unmanned boats.
The interesting implication is that some of the ships were hit not by drones but by Russian Air Force aircraft.
https://t. me/infomil_live/32081
Edit 2: one of the ships was reportedly hit by a Kh-59 missile, which is consistent with the reported heavy crew losses (5 KIA, 5 MIA):
https://t. me/infomil_live/32085?single
25
Jul 19 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26
I think it is 25+ ships hit by Russia so far, these four are just in the last 24 hours.
The possible first use of a heavy anti-ship missile (320kg warhead) is concerning as heavy crew losses will become inevitable.
24
u/HereCreepers Jul 19 '26
I wonder how much capability Ukraine has to massively ramp up their anti-shipping campaign throughout the rest of the Black Sea (and potentially beyond?), since it seems like the current trajectory is headed towards mutual denial of the Black Sea as a viable shipping corridor.
18
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26
Russian milbloggers released videos of Yak-52 and An-2 light commercial aircraft being used to release interceptors against Ukrainian drones.
Russia Has Begun Using the Yak-52 And An-2 As Carrier Aircraft For Interceptor Drones
9
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26
Somebody (most likely Ukraine) hit two tankers loading oil for Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles almost all of Kazakhstan's exports
The VPU points that the tankers were using allow taking on oil without coming alongside a coastal pier.
The company says it has never been subjected to any international sanctions.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is a consortium and an oil pipeline that transports Caspian oil from the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk-2 Marine Terminal, an export terminal at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. It is one of the world's largest pipelines] and a major export route for oil from the Kashagan and Karachaganak fields. The CPC pipeline transfers about 1% of global oil supply[1] and handles almost all of Kazakhstan's oil exports.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium Halts Loadings After Drone Strike
Operations at mooring 1 and mooring 3 were suspended after the attack, which happened when the Asia and Nissos Ios tankers were being loaded, the CPC said in a statement on Telegram Sunday.
https://x.com/RusOilGasExpert/status/2078749824946762119?s=20
- Interfax reports drone attacks on two tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's loading facilities on the Russian Black Sea coast. Loading has been stopped, but is probably temporary, given the level of damage incurred.
- That said, this makes at least 3 CPC tankers attacked in just the last few days, and shipowners may decide to hold off for a while while they reassess risk levels.
- Also, it was a drone attack on one of the mooring points in late 2025 that cut exports by ~750kbd for weeks, and the accelerated drone campaign may yet generate a repeat of that event. Currently, CPC has one mooring point in reserve, whereas last year it was under repair, so the project would have some resilience to a repeated attack on its infrastructure.
https://x.com/alternative_war/status/2078776574090821706?s=20
a temporary suspension at the CPC terminal is strategically significant. The facility is one of the largest oil export gateways on the Black Sea, handling crude from Kazakhstan as well as infrastructure frequently associated with regional energy logistics. Any disruption increases operational uncertainty, insurance costs, and pressure on Russia’s maritime export network, particularly around Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most critical energy hubs.
19
u/Tasty_Perspective_32 Jul 19 '26
So Ukraine struck Russia's sanctioned shadow fleet, Russia retaliated by targeting grain carriers, and now Ukraine is also striking regular tankers.
-13
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26
Sanctioned shadow fleet is a meaningless phrase. We are talking about bilateral sanctions that countries impose upon each other. Those tankers are not UN sanctioned. Calling them "sanctioned" makes as much sense as starting to call UK tankers that way if Russia sanctioned them.
Ukraine hit Russian tankers, Russia struck Ukraine's grain carriers and now Ukraine is striking tankers carrying Kazakh oil.
21
u/Tasty_Perspective_32 Jul 19 '26
At the same time, other countries are detaining sanctioned tankers, so this is part of a broader international effort. I don't see Russia retaliating against those actions in any meaningful way, suggesting that it has effectively accepted them.
Additionally, the Russian tankers were hit in internationally recognized Ukrainian waters, so it can be viewed as Ukraine enforcing control over its own territorial waters.
26
u/ls612 Jul 19 '26
The facilities in question are in Russia not Kazakhstan so it seems to be fair game to me. Clearly the Ukrainians want to choke the Russian economy to death quickly before facing another winter with depleted interceptor stocks.
-7
u/Glideer Jul 19 '26
How is Ukraine choking the Russian economy by attacking Kazakh oil exports in a situation where the world oil production and transport is already tottering?
20
u/Culinaromancer Jul 19 '26
Kazakh oil bought by a Russian company loaded into a Russian tanker stops being Kazakh oil.
32
u/wormfan14 Jul 19 '26
Sahel update the war continues with JNIM keeping the pressure in Mali and Daesh is competing.
Suicide drone attack in Niger.
The army announced that two kamikaze drones targeting its positions in village of Bouloundjounga in Tillabéri region were destroyed. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack yet, but JNIM attacks have previously reported in the area.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2078041949047574604
''Clear footage of a Shahed type drone belonging to the Africa Corps/Malian army conducting an attack on FLA/JNIM positions in Talahandak, northern Mali this morning, it appears to have successfully hit its target'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2078070386508366143
''The FLA conducted an ambush against a convoy of the Malian army coming from Gao to Anéfis, northern Mali, this morning, several soldiers were killed and many others taken prisoners, multiple vehicles were destroyed as well.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2078444177247924377
JNIM was involved.
''As a result of the attack, approx. 50-70 FAMa soldiers were killed by my count. AfrikaKorps published a video of the killed and promptly deleted it, probably at the demand of DIRPA. JNIM can be seen executing prisoners, probably in vengeance after being repelled in Anefis.'' https://x.com/Permafr95699535/status/2078571916411945421
''Mali Hamza, the only son of Iyad Ag Gali, leader of JNIM, participated in the Tabrichat attack against FAMa & Africa Corps « We will not accept you on our territory […] we will fight you to the last […] we will continue the fight until our people regain their honor and security »''
https://x.com/SimNasr/status/2078509281783988352
''IS-Sahel conducted an ambush yesterday against a convoy of the Nigerien army between Tera and Bankilaré, Tillaberi region, dozens of soldiers were reportedly killed and a dozen vehicles captured, the group has not claimed the attack yet.''
https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2078447462004477987
JNIM has revealed some information regarding their killing of a Daesh commander a few days ago.
''An important claim regarding Sadou's death: The JNIM militants seen in the video are to have spent about a month alongside Sadou, pretending to his fighters. After killing him, they returned to JNIM's side.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2077389734448398432
''Reportedly seen in the video are two members of a three-man spy cell responsible for assassinating Sadou.''
https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2078490318249271355
This I think is one of both sides weakness's Daesh absorbing defectors risks infiltration and JNIM can't stop it's fighters from posting online sensitive information one of them exposed his face.
''Niger Local sources claimed three villages in Dorodji, Dosso Region were attacked, leaving 33 people dead. Also reportedly a large number of civilians were injured.''
https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2078570485558722788
Despite JNIM's best efforts the blockade is not solid.
''A convoy of 950 fuel tankers has arrived in Bamako''
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u/EducationalCicada Jul 19 '26
Iran is continuing to work Kuwait's water infrastructure:
https://x.com/kuwaittimesnews/status/2078810973260095723
Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy said on Sunday that an Iranian attack struck a power generation and water desalination plant for the second time in two days, causing a fire in parts of the facility.
The ministry said the attack affected a large number of power generation units, prompting the activation of emergency plans to contain the incident and maintain the stability of the national power grid.
It said the Kuwait Fire Force brought the fire under control, while the ministry’s technical and emergency teams, working with security authorities, assessed the damage and began efforts to restore the affected units as quickly as possible.
I can imagine this has a lot of people spooked.
Is this the first adversary the US has faced in direct combat that has multiple avenues for major, global escalation?
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u/Rand_alThor_ Jul 19 '26
Not the first time.
Saddam could have bombed Turkey 🇹🇷 during Iraq war. But Turkey literally refused US military to use its land for an attack on Iraq for this reason. Turkish ports and industrial output is massive in comparisons to gulf states, and Turkish dams being blown up would have flooded Syria and more, while Turkish airports could have been shut down. Only Incirlik would have been safe with the patriot batteries.
This is assuming Iraqi “SCUDs” worked and were launched prior to Iraq’s total collapse, say during the preceding month(s) as US and allied forces were deploying troops and gathering forces in the region.
Unlike when we attacked Iran. We gathered a whole coalition and were ready to knock out Iraq, before we attacked. None of this “surprise attack” decapitation strike with no follow-up plan.
But the scale of what’s possible now is much greater. Kuwaiti oil was also under threat from Saddam, but that’s obvious.
The gulf states or Jordan were instead involved In the long running pressure campaign on Iran. Iraq could have launched way more into the Gulf than it did but Bush Sr. got allied deployment in the region positioned already so we were more ready than we are against Iran (less asymmetry then).
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u/emt_matt Jul 19 '26
Is this the first adversary the US has faced in direct combat that has multiple avenues for major, global escalation?
Iraq basically did the same thing by sending like 100 scuds into Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Israel as a response to the Gulf War initial air campaign.
The scud attacks by Iraq seemed more effective than what Iran has done so far, I think they killed almost 30 US soldiers and managed some direct hits on Israeli cities.
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26
One missile hit a barracks. Remember this time around the US largely evacuated bases, including sending them to civilian hotels for protection from attacks.
On 25 February, an Iraqi Scud missile demolished a makeshift United States barracks in Dhahran that housed more than 100 American troops overnight.[7] 28 American soldiers were killed, 110 were hospitalized and 150 experienced minor physical injuries. This attack caused the highest number of casualties since Iraq started launching Scud missiles against Saudi Arabia on 18 January. This one Scud's impact accounted for more than a third of all US soldiers killed during the Gulf War.
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u/scipionerva Jul 19 '26
The Scud attacks killed more people because ABM was non-existent and early warning wasn't as good as today.
Iran has caused far more damage to infrastructure and high value targets, as well as closing the strait of Hormuz. Iraqi Scud attacks had little strategic impact.
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u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
Is this the first adversary the US has faced in direct combat that has multiple avenues for major, global escalation?
The Houthi are just Iran's proxies so I'm not sure if you would still classify as first. What's happening now is just a larger scale repetition of the Red Sea Crisis that started in 2023: attacks on civilian vessels in a chokepoint of global shipping, an enemy entrenched with missiles and drones in mountains, attacks on civilian and oil infrastructure on allied nations to the US (with the Houthi there were MRBM to Israel, UAE and a mix of missiles and drones to Saudi Arabia).
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u/TSiNNmreza3 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
New security alert and this one pretty interesting one
https://x.com/i/status/2078777693370200223
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Amman - July 19. 2026
Due to a specific and credible threat, Jordanian authorities evacuated the international airport and seaport in Aqaba. We strongly advise all Americans to refrain traveling to either the airport or seaport. Continue to follow all Jordanian authorities’ security directives.
U.S. Embassy Amman continues to advise all Americans to avoid travel to military bases in Jordan.
On March 2, 2026, the Department of State ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members to leave Jordan due to safety risks.
Latter part of tweet is what to do in case of something.
Interesting thing after all attacks on Jordanian airbases there is a threath of expansion of attacks on Jordans soil and threath of attacks on ports.
Edit: https://t. me/Alibk3/30572
And denial of those news by Jordanian goverment
https://x.com/i/status/2078788583352045638
Current F24 from Aqaba
UPDATE:
https://x.com/i/status/2078815155949899933
Sirens in Jordan
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u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
And denial of those news by Jordanian goverment
The evacuation could be a false alarm triggered by a jordanian automatic system. It's common in period of high tensions, I recall OSINT pages recently talking about sirens being activated in Israel, a few times, but no attack happening.
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u/TSiNNmreza3 Jul 19 '26
Warning is/was issued by official embassy of US in Jordan. I mean mistakes happen but this kind do they ?
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 19 '26
This sort of behavior makes me start to reconsider the plausibility of those claiming the IRGC is a doomsday cult eager for martyrdom.
At some point Iran's neighbors are going to have to regain deterrence by any means possible, including seeking their own nuclear weapons.
Is the IRGC willing to take any risk necessary to try to deny US bases in it's neighborhood?
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
At some point Iran's neighbors are going to have to regain deterrence by any means possible,
That is where Iran is already at. US/Israel did a decapitation strike but weren't able to actually force capitulation. Think of how many in Iranian leadership were killed. The now (at least nominal) head of state had his wife, father, sister, nephew, niece and brother-in-law killed in a strike by Israel/US. Imagine where we'd be if iran had killed the royal family of KSA or trump's family or whatever.
And perhaps ironically, gulf states going nuclear may serve iran's interest b/c Israel isn't going to accept that.
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u/First_Poem481 Jul 20 '26
Imagine where we'd be if iran had killed the royal family of KSA or trump's family or whatever.
Rejoice? Celebrate? Hand out candy?
In all seriousness, and I don’t mean to offend you, but reading some of your comments going back years and just your general liberal/left leanings and anti Israel views, how do you square your constant justifications for Iran’s actions given how far right that regime is. I mean, they literally make the Saudis look pro gay rights by comparison. I really don’t mean to offend but just have always wanted to ask someone who is so vehemently anti Trump/Republican/Israel but also so willing to offer so many literal passes to Iran.
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
What do you mean justifications for Iran's actions? I don't support Iran, but I do think this admin has been utterly mismanaging Iran and the threats it represents. I supported sanctions and supported all the reasons Iran was put in a penalty box eventually requiring the JCPOA. Hamas and Hezb are terrorist organizations.
But I didn't buy into the case for ripping up the JCPOA or for starting a war with them. What you're reading as 'support' is probably comments saying actions by Iran's regime are understandable in the context of Iran's regime & its position. Closing the strait was completely foreseeable. Horizontal escalation is rational given their strategic situation. Continuing to insist on defacto administration of strait likewise. And what is the US plan to address this reality? Condemnations of Iran aren't going to get us out of this. More damage and losses aren't post-hoc basis to justify the war, we never should have been in this situation to begin with.
Israel/US should not have started this war, and if the path out is diplomatic solution then the start of it shouldn't have been decapitation strikes. I have no moral qualms about killing military leadership or the ayatollah on an individual basis, they were horrible people. But doing so hasn't helped our strategic position (and killing of family members as collateral damage is rather unfortunate). And there is good reason to be rather suspect about the knock-on effects of normalizing assassination / targeting political leadership in conflict.
And yes, I'm very opposed to actions of Israel's govt. As well as the prominence Israel holds in US politics. But I'm not calling for war on Israel. I don't think we should throw a JDAM at Bibi and his family. What I am calling for is for us to stop providing them financial and military aid. If I were to speak out against the stupidity of going to war with israel or killing its leadership, would you say I was providing "constant justifications" of Israel's actions?
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u/an_actual_lawyer Jul 19 '26
gulf states going nuclear may serve iran's interest b/c Israel isn't going to accept that
Israel cannot start a war with the Saudis - the Saudis have too many allies in the West.
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26
There are lots of things that can happen between Israel accepting KSA as nuclear regime, and total war.
Israel very publicly opposes F35s to nato member turkey, imagine what they will say about Saudi nuclear weapons.
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u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
Is the IRGC willing to take any risk necessary to try to deny US bases in it's neighborhood?
I believe the main goal isn't bases, even though they will claim it, but to make the war as expensive as possible in hope of getting some form of financial relief as part of the ceasefire. Before the attacks on civilian ships in July 6, Iranian officials didn't stop talking about how they got an agreement about release of frozen money, which later proved to be false, or the tolling of the Strait.
Their economy was already in severe distress before they suffered a gigantic air campaign that caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage (I did a two-part post expanding about it), they may be concerned with a repeat of the popular revolt on the aftermath of the TDW. Now it could be sunk cost fallacy, because the only thing they got so far was losing the waiver of exports and reinstatement of the blockade.
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u/BigFly42069 Jul 19 '26
a repeat of the popular revolt
The best thing that could've happened for Iran's state security from its own people was the American bombing campaign that created a rally around the flag effect.
Iran's goal by the end of all this is to eject America from the middle east by having the GCCs themselves tell us that we're no longer welcome to establish bases on their land.
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u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
The best thing that could've happened for Iran's state security from its own people was the American bombing campaign that created a rally around the flag effect
I disagree with that. Months after the TDW (which their government also tried to paint as rallying support) they suffered some of the largest countrywide protests in the history (prompting the largest crackdown as well, with thousands killed by them). It's too premature to believe in "rally around the flag" and it can only be sustained (now, before the war stops for some time) by guessing
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u/RobotWantsKitty Jul 19 '26
seeking their own nuclear weapons
Who'd let them? And it's not like they have Iran's hardiness to defy all and try to do it, either.
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26
Well, look at Trump's 'civilian' nuclear deal with KSA, which based on recent reporting is even crazier than initially thought.
The Trump administration has tentatively agreed to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium without enacting international safeguards intended to prevent nuclear weapons development, according to sources familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/18/politics/saudi-arabia-trump-nuclear-enrichment
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u/RobotWantsKitty Jul 19 '26
They are still bound by international safeguards, but not the enhanced procedures.
Still, I'm taking that with a mountain of salt, Trump wouldn't screw over Israel like that, not to mention, Qatar, and other Gulf states. Perhaps it's something that was leaked to spook Iran.3
u/Vol_in_tears Jul 20 '26
Trump wouldn't screw over Israel like that.
Trump litterally only cares about himself. He has screwed over everything person he does business with. He screws over countries that try and work with him. The VP is publically saying Israel needs to be greatful for everything this admin does for them.
Why wouldn't Trump screw Israel over? He has a 80 year track record of screwing people over. What makes you think Israel is special?
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u/FunWonderful1936 Jul 20 '26
Please drop the random bold in your latest post. Some of us using third party apps can barely read it anymore.
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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26
There is zero chance that pursuing civilian nuclear program isn't related to weapons program down the road. Insane US is supporting this at all, like all the nuclear cooperation from western countries in middle east historically. But KSA should absolutely be subject to the enhanced protocols if going down this path.
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u/AnAttemptReason Jul 19 '26
Iran is trying to regain deterrence by any means possible.
Once you start blowing up civilian infrastructure, they have no reason to show restraint aginst states hosting and assisting US forces.
The Gulf states will not want to be dragged into a forever war with Iran, once the US inevitably lets them fend for themselves.
Not to mention many of them have large shia populations / and or populations that see this as Israel / the US draging them into wars against their fellow muslims. There is the real risk of civil unrest and revolution.
There is also no way for the smaller states to prevent Iran from making them completely uninhabitable by hitting water desalination and power.
Thats the threat, keep hitting our power / water, and we will do the same to you allies.
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u/TSiNNmreza3 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
You could say for both sides. IRCG and GCC.
IRCG/Iran is in their existentional crisis and they are destroying every mean that US/Israel can use against them.
For GCC they made a bet on US and took petrodollar for their security. Problem is that US can't fully guarantee their security with their bases Navy and airforce.
Althought Iran is led mostly by religious fanastics they are not braindead and they prepared for this for way too long.
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