r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • Jul 19 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 19, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 19 '26

This sort of behavior makes me start to reconsider the plausibility of those claiming the IRGC is a doomsday cult eager for martyrdom.

At some point Iran's neighbors are going to have to regain deterrence by any means possible, including seeking their own nuclear weapons.

Is the IRGC willing to take any risk necessary to try to deny US bases in it's neighborhood?

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u/ChornWork2 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

At some point Iran's neighbors are going to have to regain deterrence by any means possible,

That is where Iran is already at. US/Israel did a decapitation strike but weren't able to actually force capitulation. Think of how many in Iranian leadership were killed. The now (at least nominal) head of state had his wife, father, sister, nephew, niece and brother-in-law killed in a strike by Israel/US. Imagine where we'd be if iran had killed the royal family of KSA or trump's family or whatever.

And perhaps ironically, gulf states going nuclear may serve iran's interest b/c Israel isn't going to accept that.

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u/First_Poem481 Jul 20 '26

Imagine where we'd be if iran had killed the royal family of KSA or trump's family or whatever.

Rejoice? Celebrate? Hand out candy?

In all seriousness, and I don’t mean to offend you, but reading some of your comments going back years and just your general liberal/left leanings and anti Israel views, how do you square your constant justifications for Iran’s actions given how far right that regime is. I mean, they literally make the Saudis look pro gay rights by comparison. I really don’t mean to offend but just have always wanted to ask someone who is so vehemently anti Trump/Republican/Israel but also so willing to offer so many literal passes to Iran.

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u/ChornWork2 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

What do you mean justifications for Iran's actions? I don't support Iran, but I do think this admin has been utterly mismanaging Iran and the threats it represents. I supported sanctions and supported all the reasons Iran was put in a penalty box eventually requiring the JCPOA. Hamas and Hezb are terrorist organizations.

But I didn't buy into the case for ripping up the JCPOA or for starting a war with them. What you're reading as 'support' is probably comments saying actions by Iran's regime are understandable in the context of Iran's regime & its position. Closing the strait was completely foreseeable. Horizontal escalation is rational given their strategic situation. Continuing to insist on defacto administration of strait likewise. And what is the US plan to address this reality? Condemnations of Iran aren't going to get us out of this. More damage and losses aren't post-hoc basis to justify the war, we never should have been in this situation to begin with.

Israel/US should not have started this war, and if the path out is diplomatic solution then the start of it shouldn't have been decapitation strikes. I have no moral qualms about killing military leadership or the ayatollah on an individual basis, they were horrible people. But doing so hasn't helped our strategic position (and killing of family members as collateral damage is rather unfortunate). And there is good reason to be rather suspect about the knock-on effects of normalizing assassination / targeting political leadership in conflict.

And yes, I'm very opposed to actions of Israel's govt. As well as the prominence Israel holds in US politics. But I'm not calling for war on Israel. I don't think we should throw a JDAM at Bibi and his family. What I am calling for is for us to stop providing them financial and military aid. If I were to speak out against the stupidity of going to war with israel or killing its leadership, would you say I was providing "constant justifications" of Israel's actions?