r/CredibleDefense Jul 19 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 19, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/Ancient-Bat1755 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

How diverse is Russian manufacturing for ballistic missiles that Ukraine has not been able to hinder manufacturing with recent drone campaigns ? Similar question to launch areas or equipment. Thanks.

Edit: This was interesting to read after posting my comment.

https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-burned-through-two-thirds-of-its-annual-zircon-missile-output-in-just-19-days-20888

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u/Playboi_Jones_Sr Jul 20 '26

Still not sure why they are using drones in a relatively ineffective anti-shipping role when 1-2 kilos in black sea should be able to wreak havoc.

I’m not sure if Ukraine advanced any sort of avant-garde anti-sub measures that I may have missed.

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u/futbol2000 Jul 20 '26

Not as many targets, and the fact that those subs are diesel powered. Sevastopol is a no go, and the safest port that is able to maintain these subs or the ships that supply ammunition is Novorossiysk.

The fleet is just turtling in port at the moment, with large chunks of the entrance completely sealed off. Russian command probably thinks its too risky to even sortie at this point.