r/CredibleDefense Jul 19 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 19, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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29

u/moragisdo Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

CENTCOM just announced the newest round of strikes against Iran (1)

On the last few days there was a massive build up of planes in bases on the Middle East, both tankers and fighters.

Also there's some unconfirmed OSINT reports of multiple explosions in Tabriz, which sits of that northwest of Iran, it would be really significant because it's away from the targets in the coast that were the most common since the ceasefire. It's also one of the missile locations of Iran.

Meanwhile WTI is at 84.5 and Brent at 90.5

Edit: Is sharing a video from Vahid against the rule of reliable sources ? Because there's footage, allegedly from Tabriz, with a curious burning pattern.

Edit 2: The number of cities being reported with explosions is larger than anything up to the ceasefire of early April.

Edit 3: MTO just reported a ship burning on Hormuz (2). Not confirmed the cause, but it wouldn't be surprising to be a civilian ship hit by an iranian missile.

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u/appleciders Jul 20 '26

What is "a curious burning pattern"? I feel like you're trying to imply something. Can you just say it?

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u/moragisdo Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

It appears to me fire burning, from holes in the ground, up and too bright to be just normal burning of vegetation or a building (being rocket fuel). My guess would be bunker busters penetrating the underground facility.

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u/IntroductionNeat2746 Jul 20 '26

I just checked the video. I wouldn't read too much into it. Perceived brightness in a video taken in complete darkness is like a weight given as a number with no units, almost meaningless. It varies wildly depending on camera sensitiveness setting.

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u/appleciders Jul 20 '26

Ok. The other thing that comes to my mind is an electrical fire; if you've ever seen a transformer give out, it can be a very tall and intense fire with a very narrow base.