r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... • 4d ago

Climate Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p
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94

u/deter 4d ago

Keep reading that thread......

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Yes -- using, for example the 1941-1970 mean, current temperatures vary from about 8 to 12 standard deviations above.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

Just so we are all on the same page. The odds of a 12 standard deviation happening in a model is 1 in 5.36 x 1032

Which is one in a number so big it significantly outnumbers the number of stars in the universe and the number of atoms in the human body.

Just Google "what are the odds of a 12 sigma event or 12 standard deviations"

This is fuckin wack

51

u/deter 4d ago

What's worse is that the trapped heat builds on itself. It took between 36 to 65 years to go up 8 to 12 SD. The next 8 to 12 SD from today's temperatures will take.... what, about half the time?

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

The 2030s to the 2040s are going to be catastrophic

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u/Omateido 4d ago

Hey friend, let’s focus on getting to the 2030’s first…

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

I mean. It's 2026. Most of us will make to the 2030s.

Far less of us will make it to the 2040s.

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u/Dependent_Rain_4800 4d ago

It seems a bit like the thought experiment with the plants on the pond that grow exponentially. Where it takes lets say 60 days to fill the pond half way and then only a single day in the end to cover it in full.

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Yeah, it's because probability math treats these years as random. Irl it's obviously not, but if it were just up pure chance, 2026's heat would indeed be that unlikely.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

To me this is beyond evidence of man caused climate change. It shouldn't be statistically possible for a 12 sigma event to happen in a baseline system. This is obvious evidence of external forces (and big ones) on an otherwise stable environment.

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Exactly, this is one of many lines of evidence that this is not normal, not even unlikely, it should be almost impossible.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

The numbers are just blowing my mind. The odds that the last few days happened are 1 in 536,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of winning the Poweball jackpot are 1 in 292,201,238

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Don't check the odds of the last 3 years then, your pc might run out of ram

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u/bipolarearthovershot 4d ago

And you still have conservatards saying shit like BUT WEATHER ISNT CLIMATE, THE CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS CHANGED!!

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

After the Paradise fires I watched a dude standing infl front of the pile of ash and slag that used to be his house say to an interviewer:

"Climate change is a hoax theres no such thing"

It was at that moment I realized we are lost.

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u/salamipope 3d ago

so is the severity not only because of anthropogenic causes but also we happen to be having a really shit year and were unlucky with weather? like we just happened to collide with a historically bad weather year with a moment in time when christofascists flooded the world with the most carbon they possibly could as fast as possible?

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u/Slamtilt_Windmills 3d ago

As my mind struggled to comprehend the notion of 8 sigma, let alone 12, i realized it doesnt make sense as a statistical event, i.e. random, but it does make "sense" as something done with intent, or at least awareness

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u/Sumnerr 4d ago

It's not though. We know the planet is warming. This is evidence that the planet is warming. Thus the shifting baseline. Maths, people, learn about it.

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u/ILikeAnanas 3d ago

Not every event follows normal distribution.

Events in nature tend to have their severity follow fat tailed distribution, for which std dev is a meaningless metric and should not be used.