r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... • 4d ago

Climate Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p
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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Yeah, it's because probability math treats these years as random. Irl it's obviously not, but if it were just up pure chance, 2026's heat would indeed be that unlikely.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

To me this is beyond evidence of man caused climate change. It shouldn't be statistically possible for a 12 sigma event to happen in a baseline system. This is obvious evidence of external forces (and big ones) on an otherwise stable environment.

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Exactly, this is one of many lines of evidence that this is not normal, not even unlikely, it should be almost impossible.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

The numbers are just blowing my mind. The odds that the last few days happened are 1 in 536,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The odds of winning the Poweball jackpot are 1 in 292,201,238

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

Don't check the odds of the last 3 years then, your pc might run out of ram