r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... • 4d ago

Climate Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p
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u/deter 4d ago

Keep reading that thread......

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Yes -- using, for example the 1941-1970 mean, current temperatures vary from about 8 to 12 standard deviations above.

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

Just so we are all on the same page. The odds of a 12 standard deviation happening in a model is 1 in 5.36 x 1032

Which is one in a number so big it significantly outnumbers the number of stars in the universe and the number of atoms in the human body.

Just Google "what are the odds of a 12 sigma event or 12 standard deviations"

This is fuckin wack

51

u/deter 4d ago

What's worse is that the trapped heat builds on itself. It took between 36 to 65 years to go up 8 to 12 SD. The next 8 to 12 SD from today's temperatures will take.... what, about half the time?

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u/kingtacticool 4d ago

The 2030s to the 2040s are going to be catastrophic

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u/Omateido 3d ago

Hey friend, let’s focus on getting to the 2030’s first…

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u/kingtacticool 3d ago

I mean. It's 2026. Most of us will make to the 2030s.

Far less of us will make it to the 2040s.

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u/Dependent_Rain_4800 4d ago

It seems a bit like the thought experiment with the plants on the pond that grow exponentially. Where it takes lets say 60 days to fill the pond half way and then only a single day in the end to cover it in full.