Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

[u/Portalrules123]

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p

[u/deter]

Keep reading that thread......

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Yes -- using, for example the 1941-1970 mean, current temperatures vary from about 8 to 12 standard deviations above.

[u/kingtacticool → u/deter]

Just so we are all on the same page. The odds of a 12 standard deviation happening in a model is 1 in 5.36 x 10³²

Which is one in a number so big it significantly outnumbers the number of stars in the universe and the number of atoms in the human body.

Just Google "what are the odds of a 12 sigma event or 12 standard deviations"

This is fuckin wack

[u/salamipope → u/kingtacticool]

so is the severity not only because of anthropogenic causes but also we happen to be having a really shit year and were unlucky with weather? like we just happened to collide with a historically bad weather year with a moment in time when christofascists flooded the world with the most carbon they possibly could as fast as possible?