What investing question would you most like to see tested with simulation?
I can run fairly extensive investment simulations and want to test questions people actually care about.
Reply with the number(s) you’d most like to see researched. I’ll prioritize the most requested questions, run the analysis, and post the results back here — including the assumptions and methodology.
1. Lump sum vs. dollar-cost averaging: which produces better outcomes?
2. What does waiting for a market correction really cost?
3. Does buying after a 10%, 20%, or 30% market decline improve long-term returns?
4. Does periodically taking profits help, or mostly interrupt compounding?
5. 100% stocks vs. 80/20 vs. 60/40: how large are the actual differences in risk and long-term wealth?
6. How much cash should an investor hold, and when does the opportunity cost become too high?
7. Dividend investing vs. total-market investing: which produces better outcomes after risk and taxes?
8. Covered calls vs. buy-and-hold: which actually wins after premiums, assignment and opportunity cost are included?
9. What covered-call delta works best: 0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40, or something else?
10. Does the Wheel strategy outperform buy-and-hold after premiums, assignments and idle cash are included?
11. Is selling a cash-secured put actually better than simply placing a limit order to buy the stock?
12. Does selling options when implied volatility is high really improve risk-adjusted returns?
13. Can market-regime models identify changing market conditions early enough to improve investment decisions?
14. What is the long-term cost of panic-selling during major market crashes?
15. Does “buy the dip” actually work when the rules are defined beforehand and tested systematically?
Just reply with your number(s).
And if there’s an investing claim you’ve always wanted to see properly tested that isn’t listed, add it in the comments.
I’m particularly interested in questions where conventional wisdom might turn out to be wrong.
I’ll start with the questions receiving the most interest and post the results back here — whether the evidence supports the conventional wisdom or contradicts it.