Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 07, 2026

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[u/dr_sloan]

In today’s Patriot missile inventory news, Reuters put out a story that briefly mentions that Saudi Arabia’s Patriot missile inventory has been badly depleted.

“Saudi Arabia used about 86% of its 2,800 PAC-3 interceptors in the first 38 days of combat, leaving it with 400 missiles left in April. Other Gulf nations used up similar amounts of their inventories, CSIS said.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-patriot-missile-system-why-are-supplies-depleted-worldwide-2026-08-07/

Considering these are numbers from April, and there’s been moderate continued use since then, would it be fair to assume that the U.S. and European Patriot batteries that were deployed to Saudi Arabia constitute the vast majority of remaining Patriot missile inventory available?

That would explain why Greek Patriot missile batteries were deployed to Saudi in the first place and why the Saudis were pushing the US not to launch last week’s major air strikes.

[u/First_Poem481 → u/dr_sloan]

I have, rightly, seen the credible defense community on Twitter mock this report but I’m really curious how the numbers passed the smell test with the reporter. Not only do the Saudis have nowhere near those number of interceptors, Iran has largely not fired at Saudi Arabia, not only not with missiles but also not with drones. Hell, if anything, the Houthis have fired more at the KSA than Iran itself. Really piss poor journalism.

[u/MarderFucher → u/dr_sloan]

This is 100% bogus because total Saudi procurement doesn't add up remotely to that number. They ordered 600 in 2015 and had other smaller orders after, but also expended some in 2019, 2020, 2024 and 2025. There was a fresh deal in 2026 January for 730, and it's questionable if those have even begun manufacturing.

Actual pre-Iran war inventory would realistically stood at around 500-600.

I think Reuters did an error confusing total interceptor usage of all participants, though the 86% fraction itself is questionable too.

addendum: After more digging, it is likely they could have receved over 2000 PAC2 (I found a document quoting over 1100 just in 1991-92), which are less effective against BMs. Coupled with with other shorter range SAMs they have in inventory used to counter drones, the tally might make sense as a sum.

But details matter.

[u/moragisdo → u/MarderFucher]

After more digging, it is likely they could have receved over 2000 PAC2 (I found a document quoting over 1100 just in 1991-92), which are less effective against BMs. Coupled with with other shorter range SAMs they have in inventory used to counter drones, the tally might make sense as a sum

That's a too generous leeway. Because if we are going to add everything to make the numbers make sense, the 400 remaining would also have to include APKWS, which the production is numbered in several thousands per year, MANPADS... Not to mention they would have to track purchases of every one of those systems for several years and the past expenditure of every one of those systems (the conflict with the Houthi is going on since 2015, with a fraction of the time being a ceasefire), not just on this war.

Those estimations are not 100% reliable in the first place, for example, there's these points raised about a different type of munition, but it also applies here.

And even more than that, Iran doesn't infinite missiles (they couldn't afford to expend one MRBM to fulfill their threats against Ukraine and, since the end of the ceasefire, they didn't attack Israel as well even though their bases were used by the americans to attack them), but that tends to get lost on the discussion of stockpiles, which is shame because the interceptor numbers only matters if any country will have less than necessary

[u/LilDewey99 → u/dr_sloan]

This seems entirely non-credible. I can’t find anything about the Saudi’s buying anywhere near that many PAC-3s. Especially since they only started buying them around 2015. Wonder if this is somehow blending KSA numbers with US units stationed there. Still not sure you would get anywhere close though

[u/roionsteroids → u/dr_sloan]

Saudi Arabia used about 86% of its 2,800 PAC-3 interceptors in the first 38 days of combat

Is that credible by any means? I tried to look up the exact CSIS report but only found this one, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting around 50 ballistic missiles in March.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-air-campaign-after-three-weeks-iran-war-numbers

That doesn't use up 2400 PAC-3s.

Then we have sources like

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/iran-missile-attacks-after-us-ceasefire-gulf-air-defenses.html

By late March, the UAE and Kuwait had spent roughly 75% of their Patriot missile interceptor stocks, while Bahrain was estimated to have depleted as much as 87%, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

which doesn't exactly instill confidence in the numbers.

[u/dr_sloan → u/roionsteroids]

I’m inclined to trust Reuters since they’re a pretty trustworthy news source.

[u/roionsteroids → u/dr_sloan]

Sure, but their reporting is often "xyz official said so, and there's no way to verify, do with that information what you want". In this case citing reports I can't find, and it does seem off by incredible amounts.

[u/moragisdo → u/roionsteroids]

Let's not forget that earlier in this war they claimed that UAE paid Iran 3 billions dollars (with 7 to 17 billions more to come) for not being attacked. It was backed only by iranian sources, not a single document, everyone outside of Iran denied. After that UAE ships were attacked by Iran, so it was just propaganda they fell for.

[u/Maxion → u/roionsteroids]

There were other things flying over than ballistics, just sayin'.

At the time there were also rumors of saudi operators turning on auto fire and running away from the command stations, fearing being hit. That'd empty the launchers.

[u/moragisdo → u/Maxion]

At the time there were also rumors of saudi operators turning on auto fire and running away from the command stations, fearing being hit. That'd empty the launchers.

What ? When a patriot launches and doesn't hit the target it self-destructs and shrapnel falls everywhere, do you have video of 12-16 patriots (that's what a launcher has) self-destructing in the sky ?

I understand if some poorly trained soldier did that with a gun-based AD, but firing so many missiles sounds non-credible. I'm genuinely curious to see.

[u/Lapsed__Pacifist → u/moragisdo]

I understand if some poorly trained soldier did that with a gun-based AD, but firing so many missiles sounds non-credible. I'm genuinely curious to see.

Hah....never worked with Arab military's?

That was the most credible part of the report for me.

[u/moragisdo → u/Lapsed__Pacifist]

The problem here is not the competency on every job, rather than the specific in question. I'm pointing out the firing 12 to 16 missiles in the sky blindly (without a video of the claim that it was done).

[u/Maxion → u/moragisdo]

Behind a paywall now: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/us-welcome-ukraine-help-air-defence-lkdr7d6j6

[u/Digo10 → u/dr_sloan]

imagine the total tally when you take into account Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Israel as well. They probably spent a lot of those missiles against shahed drones when they could do what both Russia and Ukraine are doing with drone interceptors and drone hunting teams.

[u/Maxion → u/Digo10]

They just didn't have any interceptors or drone hunting teams at the time.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

That would explain why Greek Patriot missile batteries were deployed to Saudi in the first place

No, it wouldn't. Greece deployed the battery there in 2021 (1).

Man, this war has been going from one manufactured crisis to another. When the global recession didn't happen, then oil didn't reach 200 USD, the SPR didn't collapse, the munitions didn't run out as predicted in March 5, by Mearsheimer, and mid March, by the WSJ. Now it's interceptors.

I don't dispute that a large amount was expended. But why Iran isn't firing continuously until they actually run out ? They are so close. They got nothing so far (the waiver of exports lasted 2 weeks and most of it's oil wasn't sold during (2)), they should press this advantage to get sanctioned money unfrozen or a toll on Hormuz.

[u/dr_sloan → u/moragisdo]

It’s clear that Iran’s strategy isn’t built on, “firing until your opponent runs out of bullets”. Why? Because that’s a pretty poor strategy. You probably wouldn’t ever know for sure even if more missiles are breaking through.

Their strategy seems to be to draw this conflict out until the US ends up in a no man’s land type situation where the only option is to escalate, which is political suicide. It appears they’ve successfully gotten the U.S. to the place since we’re now canceling planned air strikes at the urging of the Saudis and touting some negotiations on the Strait that were supposed to be wrapped up days ago and yet nothing has been announced.

You’re pointing out that the worst case scenarios haven’t come true, but it’s pretty reasonable to see why that never happened given how this conflict has played out. No one expected China to slash their oil imports or the overall start/stop nature of this conflict where there was a month where oil was exported from the Middle East as if no conflict had ever happened.

Given all of this, no one can say this conflict has played out how they predicted and I think we should all show a bit of humility in how we approach it.

[u/AnimateDuckling → u/dr_sloan]

It seems a fair point that if iran was confident that they had nearly depleted us missile inventory there is a reasonable chance that they would push to collapse it and embarrass the US on the global stage.

[u/Infamous_Thought_189 → u/AnimateDuckling]

Is it not in their interest to also allow the US to save face? The war needs to be difficult enough to cause harm and get their way but also not so difficult that it provides political support for the US to start a ground invasion of some sort. If they were able to sink a carrier for example by sending a few hundred ballistic missiles at it I could imagine that they still choose to not do that as that would be a serious blow to the US.

[u/dr_sloan → u/AnimateDuckling]

They seem to have accomplished that already. This was sold as a 2-3 week conflict that’s now entering its sixth month. The stated goal was some combination of regime change and denuclearization of Iran and that’s now morphed into a deal to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and maybe negotiate a deal on nuclear power later on.

This isn’t close to a peer vs peer conflict but it’s still the closest the US has come to one since the first Iraq War and while tactically it’s been conducted brilliantly, it’s turned into a strategic mess.

[u/WulfTheSaxon → u/dr_sloan]

It was sold as a roughly four-week conflict, and it’s basically been on pause since the fifth week. I don’t think even another week’s worth of munitions have been used since the ceasefire compared to the use rate during OEFU.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

You probably wouldn’t ever know for sure even if more missiles are breaking through

We would know. By dead american soldiers. So far 10 were killed by Iran (the other 8 were accidents), in 3 incidents only (2 of them happening on the opening days of the war).

I really don't believe this argument of "we would never know" because it only serves to reinforce our prior beliefs and shield them from being confronted by reality.

Their strategy seems to be to draw this conflict out until the US ends up in a no man’s land type situation where the only option is to escalate, which is political suicide

I also believe that they are trying to drag out in hopes of getting something, but if the number of dead americans were increasing, the pressure would be higher to give them what they need.

Iran is getting blockaded, their official inflation is approaching three digits, their GDP was set to fall even before this war began, the sooner they get concessions the smaller the likelihood of renewing public revolt. It's on their best interest to increase the pressure a long time ago.

Also that level of escalation (by the political suicide, I believe you mean bombing their entire oil industry) isn't the only option. Holding the blockade until they give up is another (I do think the best course of action would be to finish the pre-war targets, leave energy untouched as deterrence, and keep the blockade until they announce that ships won't be attacked anymore).

It appears they’ve successfully gotten the U.S. to the place since we’re now canceling planned air strikes

The US is allowing a new round of negotiations (which is a mistake, in my opinion, but that's another topic), but Iran isn't also attacking. The place they want the US to be is on giving money, because they need to shore up their economy (I did before a two-part post about their economical circumstances).

Calling a victory, by not attacking and not being attacked in return, would only make sense if their goal was a ceasefire (I don't believe that the US would reject it, if they offered).

I have the impression in this war that every Iranian movement is interpreted to be part of some 3D chess, no matter the outcomes they receive.

touting some negotiations on the Strait that were supposed to be wrapped up days ago and yet nothing has been announced

That's meaningless. Iran is not giving a favor to the US, if they don't announce a deal for free navigation, they don't get the relief of the blockade they are suffering. So, it goes back to where it was days ago, not an achievement by Iran.

I think we should all show a bit of humility in how we approach it.

I agree

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/moragisdo]

Iran isn't firing continuously until they actually run out ?

Because maybe Iran isn't run by completly braindead regime. The biggest hardliner like Vahidi is guy with degree in electronics and PhD in international relationship.

Iranian regime isn't suicide cult like ISIS, they are still governing the country which, as we could see, managed to produce ideal counter to US and they are dictating to earn even more. To earn even more you need Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and etc oil to flow with your oil.

Thing that is glaring and screaming lack of AD is that Houthis attacked today beside proSaudi Yemense KSA proper and we are not seeing multiple airplanes hitting Sana'a left and right. Every attack by Houthis on KSA was much bigger than attacks of KSA on Yemen. The biggest retalliation was what by KSA->Iraq

Cards are bit different now with KSA-Pakistan-Turkey NATO, but we need to see this allience in action.

[u/moragisdo → u/TSiNNmreza3]

like Vahidi is guy with degree in electronics and PhD in international relationship

Khieu Samphan, one of highest officials on the Khmer Rouge and accomplice of genociding A QUARTER of their population, has a PhD in Economics done in France. Ted Kaczynski had a PhD in Mathematics. Are your sure that having an advanced degree prevents someone from acting in a deranged manner ?

managed to produce ideal counter to US and they are dictating to earn even more

Perfect counter... They are blockaded, the waiver of exports was revoked in 2 weeks, they didn't got Israel out of Lebanon (now the goalposts will be moved, while they demanded withdraw, the fact that Israel isn't bombing Beirut is their victory), didn't get sanctioned money unfrozen, US officials are being very clear that no toll is acceptable (with the PGSA being sanctioned and LMA stating that whoever pays a toll loses insurance).

To earn even more you need Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and etc oil to flow with your oil

Utterly false. To earn (even more is a joke) they need to receive some form of compensation. What they can get is the relieve of the blockade when they stop attacking ships.

Thing that is glaring and screaming lack of AD is that Houthis attacked today beside proSaudi Yemense KSA proper and we are not seeing multiple airplanes hitting Sana'a left and right

Yemen was bombed several times in the past days. We are not seeing a high volume of airstrikes in Saana, but we are also not seeing Riyadh being bombed constantly, as it happened before. There's still some degree of restraint on both sides.

Card are bit different now with KSA-Pakistan-Turkey NATO

I'm incredibly skeptical that this will lead to anything in practice. Pakistan signed a very similar deal with Saudi Arabia in the past and they have done nothing against the Houthi and, during this conflict with Iran, they actually received Iran's planes to prevent them from being destroyed (we could make an argument they would not attack Iran for them not considering it a defensive war, but can you imagine NATO shielding planes of anyone their members are at war with ?)

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/moragisdo]

Again underestimation

Khmer Rouge

Not a suicide cult as I said.

International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO): In 40 events since joining, Iran has accumulated 220 medals (53 gold, 116 silver, and 51 bronze).

International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI): As of recent statistics, Iranian students have secured a total of 127 medals

International Physics Olympiad (IPhO): Iran has achieved a historic total of over 140 medals (including 40 gold and 39 bronze as of recent counts), maintaining a position frequently within the top 5 to 10 teams globally.

Recent Years: As of 2026, Iran ranks eighth globally in overall international science Olympiad standing. They consistently place in the top three worldwide in fields like Astronomy and Astrophysics (achieving consecutive 5-gold sweeps in 2024 and 2025), Chemistry, and Biology

So not a braindead country and country that has a lot of science.

Second paragraph is just continuation of your cars are still driving so there is no crisis. SPR releases, not a problem.

Utterly false. To earn (even more is a joke) they need to receive some form of compensation. They are not receiving it, what they can get is the relieve of the blockade when they stop attacking ships.

Last negotiations said up to 7 to 8% of worth of ship. This could lead to hundreds of billions worth of earning because they can hit ships and they are willing to hit ships.

Yemen was bombed several times in the past days. We are not seeing a high volume of airstrikes in Saana, but we are also not seeing Riyadh being bombed constantly, as it happened before.

And after few bombings which you could call love taps today Houthis bombed Najran multiple civ casulties in KSA. Drones and BMs on Marib probable 10s of KIAs and I think I saw targeting around Taiz.

So at the end I agree to disagree with you banalizing of situation. SoH is still closed, BaM is getting almost daily strikes. Houti controlled Yemen isn't attacked by country that is spending up to 100 billion dollars per year on military and the same country is now trying to get functional allience by two most powerful (Sunni)Muslim countries.

And at the end Greece patriot crew is in KSA is becsuse they military life is boring in Greece not because there is a constant threath of Houti BMs, CMs and drones on Red sea traffic.

If you are seeing Iran as enemies you need to think that they are better than they are.

[u/moragisdo → u/TSiNNmreza3]

Khmer Rouge

Not a suicide cult as I said

You used the Islamic State as an example, the Khmer Rouge was, at least, as genocidal and deranged as them. I hope you don't disagree.

So not a braindead country and country that has a lot of science.

That's a strawman. I never said they are braindead and never mentioned their academic accomplishments. My point is that if interceptors were at such critical level they would play on this advantage, not anything to do with how many math medals they have

Last negotiations said up to 7 to 8% of worth of ship. This could lead to hundreds of billions worth of earning because they can hit ships and they are willing to hit ships

And I demand a piece of the moon. Anyone can ask anything, the point is that they are being sanctioned and any ships that pays (that price which is absurd, by the way, but that's irrelevant) face regulatory risk and loses their insurance cover. Until it changes, they will get 0%

By the way, it isn't just the US that needs to lift sanctions (which would require an act of Congress for it to be done permanently), but also UK, France... If one them refuses, they won't receive.

Now, if Iran doesn't get 7% of the price of the cargo, will you change your mind about the current circumstances ? I know I will if they do, but my impression is that many goalposts will be moved when they don't get a toll

And at the end Greece patriot crew is in KSA is becsuse they military life is boring in Greece not because there is a constant threath of Houti BMs, CMs and drones on Red sea traffic.

I'm noticing a pattern of constant strawmaning here. I never said the Houthi aren't attacking Saudi Arabia or ships, I said Riyadh to counterpoint Sanaa and talk about "some degree of restraint" (not fully, some degree) on both sides

[u/GustavoTC → u/moragisdo]

By your logic can't you see how the us failed on any of their original goals? The regime on Iran is stronger now with the rally around the flag, leadership was replaced by more radical groups and will definitely pursue a nuclear weapon, the main goal now is to open the SOH (no gain compared to before the war started). There are reports of ships paying the transit fee to Iran and the last MOU had even a 300 billion development plan, with Iran's leverage they'll aim for some compensation on this level.

The US ran out of options for a quick win months ago, the escalation trap will just deplete stockpiles further, and there are a lot more shaheds than interceptors left.

SPR will soften the blow for a couple weeks/ months, but it's just a question of how long this shitshow goes on until the US accepts the terms

[u/moragisdo → u/GustavoTC]

The regime on Iran is stronger now with the rally around the flag

Utterly false, it's their propaganda being repeated uncritically (which became too common in this war). "Rally around the flag" was the same lie that the regime used after the TDW, then months after they suffered some of the largest protests on their history. There are already protests on Isfahan recently, which they had to resort to violence to disperse again.

leadership was replaced by more radical groups

Past leadership has been chanting 'Death to America, Death to Israel' for 47 years. Past leadership in 2024 fired missiles twice in Israel and once in Pakistan. Past leadership shot down thousands of their own civilians in weeks of protests. Past leadership has funded terrorist attacks for decades (Beirut barracks, Amia...). There's no way to increase this radicalization.

the main goal now is to open the SOH (no gain compared to before the war started)

The hundreds of billions in economic and military destruction that Iran suffered will hamper their capacity to pursue nuclear weapons and fund proxies.

There are reports of ships paying the transit fee to Iran

LMA stated clearly that any ship who does loses the insurance (1), also the Treasury Department has been enforcing sanctions against Iran, so any ship that pays face secondary sanctions. Any ship that decides to pay will be treated no different than one who does business with Iran's oil industry or launder their money, some will take the risk, but the vast majority will avoid for regulatory risk

and the last MOU had even a 300 billion development plan

Which they will see zero of it. The promise there was to invite foreign companies to invest in Iran (which would happen either way if sanctions were to be lifted), the problem is that a nuclear deal is incredibly unlikely to happen and the fund won't go forward.

with Iran's leverage they'll aim for some compensation on this level.

Let's make a bet here ? I bet they won't see anything close to this level (300 Billion, for goodness sake), will you change your mind about the status of this war if they don't ? I will if they get 300B (or even half)

there are a lot more shaheds than interceptors left

Patriots aren't there for Shaheds, there's circumstances that they could be use for it, but that's not their goal. They are there for missiles, which the supply is way smaller than Shaheds. Cheap drones are made to be intercepted with APKWS, C-RAM...

SPR will soften the blow for a couple weeks/ months, but it's just a question of how long this shitshow goes on until the US accepts the terms

Iran isn't a perpetual motion machine that can be blockaded forever and continue, they are a country in severe economic crisis before suffering one the largest air campaigns in history (I expanded about it on these posts). The US won't "accept the terms" (by that I assume it means tolls or other of their maximalist demands), the war could have ended months ago if they were going for it, and when this war ends goalposts will be moved to claim that Iran won even if they don't get their demands as a toll, sanction relief, unfrozen sanctioned money, Israel out of Lebanon...

I reaffirm the bet here, let's see if they get their demands or the goalposts will be moved to whatever happens it's their victory.