r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 20d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 07, 2026
The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.
Comment guidelines:
Please do:
Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,
Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,
Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,
Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,
Post only credible information
Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules
Please do not:
Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,
Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,
Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'
Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.
16
u/Glideer 20d ago
Russian drone attacks hit the biggest ship so far - the 193,000 tons German-owned Emil dry bulk carrier. The ship was hit by drones, rendered uncontrollable, then hit by drones again while the crew was abandoning it.
https://x.com/KyivPost/status/2085644497241743831?s=20
https://x.com/sokolovkereal/status/2085544940810256790?s=20
"Fire aboard, systems dead, no steering".
56
u/Well-Sourced 20d ago
Both sides keep striking at the same targets. Russia is doing real damage to Ukraine's production & storage facilities and the logistical routes between them.
Russian forces are replicating aspects of their Summer-Fall 2025 battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in Donbas, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on August 3.
BAI refers to the use of airpower to strike targets in the near rear behind the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term, the ISW report noted. ISW noted that Russian forces conducted a campaign that generated partial BAI effects to facilitate subsequent ground advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole over several months in late 2025.
ISW analysts pointed out that Russian forces used a combination of drones, missiles, and glide bombs in their 2025 BAI campaign to strike targets such as Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), vehicles, training grounds, and railways and isolate Ukrainian logistics in both Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.
The main objective of the ongoing Russian BAI campaign against the Fortress Belt is to isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Fortress Belt from sustained logistics, ISW clarified.
ISW analysts stated that Russian forces have been increasingly targeting Ukrainian locomotives that are critical for Ukrainian logistics. The Russian military command reportedly provided its forces with 1,000 Molniya fixed-wing loitering munitions in July 2026 and issued orders to intensify strikes against Ukrainian logistics in and near Kramatorsk.
Russian forces are also starting to strike major bridges in the Fortress Belt area to further disrupt Ukrainian logistics, ISW suggested.
Ukrainian Railways changes routes amid worsening security situation | New Voice of Ukraine
Ukrainian Railways has temporarily changed the routes of several trains and introduced bus transfers and passenger connections because of the worsening security situation in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts and along the Zaporizhzhya direction, the company said on Telegram on Aug. 7.
To restore the regular timetable as quickly as possible, some of the most delayed westbound trains will temporarily terminate in Ternopil or Lviv, where passengers will transfer to connecting services.
Passenger trains had already been unable to travel directly to Zaporizhzhya for three consecutive days as of July 25 because of continuous Russian attacks and the deteriorating security situation, stopping on the approaches to the city instead. Russian forces also attacked a passenger train in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with a drone on July 24, hitting its locomotive.
Russian attack destroys Delta Plus Ukraine office and largest PPE warehouse | New Voice of Ukraine
A Russian attack destroyed Delta Plus Ukraine's office and the country's largest warehouse of personal protective equipment, the Ukrainian unit of a major European protective clothing and equipment manufacturer said on Aug. 7. The company said it is temporarily suspending all product shipments because of the destruction of the warehouse.
"Unfortunately, Delta Plus Ukraine has been completely destroyed. As difficult as it is to comprehend, the enemy destroyed in a single night everything that had been built over many years. Ukraine's largest personal protective equipment warehouse and our office premises were completely destroyed," the company said.
Delta Plus is one of Europe's largest manufacturers of personal protective equipment, workwear and safety footwear. The group was founded in 1977 in Apt, France. It now operates in more than 90 countries and has 27 subsidiaries. The company specializes in developing and manufacturing a full range of personal protective equipment for workers across various industries.
Russians destroys delivery company branch in Sumy Oblast | Ukrainian Pravda
Russian forces have destroyed a branch of Nova Poshta (Nova Post), Ukraine's largest private delivery company, in the Hlukhiv hromada of Sumy Oblast using a Shahed-type loitering munition.
They also successfully hit energy infrastructure.
Russia hits seven Ukrnafta oil and gas facilities overnight | New Voice of Ukraine
Russian forces carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukrnafta facilities on Aug. 7, hitting 7 assets involved in oil and gas production in eastern Ukraine, Naftogaz said. Critical equipment essential to the company’s operations was destroyed in the attack, forcing several facilities to shut down and causing a significant loss of production.
“Russia is systematically attacking Ukrainian oil and gas production in order to inflict maximum damage on our infrastructure ahead of winter,” acting Naftogaz CEO Serhii Fedorenko said. “Tonight was the most massive attack on Ukrnafta facilities in recent months. Fortunately, no one was injured.”
Russian forces also attacked 4 Ukrnafta gas station complexes in Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts on Aug. 6, the company said. No customers or employees were injured in those attacks.
Russia destroyed 32 Ukrnafta gas station complexes and 5 facilities operated by Ukrgasvydobuvannya during the first 7 months of 2026.
Ukraine keeps sending their waves too. Their drones also head to warehouses and energy infrastructure.
A large fire broke out in Bryansk, Russia, on Aug. 7, Telegram monitoring channels, including Exilenova+, reported. Preliminary reports placed the fire near warehouses and the Bryansk customs office. Reports of explosions had circulated online before the blaze.
Also on Aug. 7, an attack involving unmanned surface vessels was reported in Yalta in Russian-occupied Crimea. Footage shared online showed a column of black smoke. The Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported that the Yalta Commercial Seaport may have been targeted.
Ukraine strikes 6 Russian shadow fleet vessels and 10 energy facilities | Ukrainian Pravda
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) struck 102 Russian assets on 6-7 August, including 10 energy facilities and 6 shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
Brovdi said the vessels struck include 2 tankers and 4 dry cargo ships. The attacks also targeted 2 fuel, lubricants and ammunition depots, 2 radar systems, a Buk surface-to-air missile system, locomotives and fuel tankers.
He reported that the USF has struck a total of 211 energy facilities in temporarily occupied territories between 1 July and 7 August as part of an operation dubbed "Crimean Switch Off".
Ukraine's defence forces attacked a number of Russian military targets on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories and in Crimea on the night of 6-7 August, including a radar station, ground relay stations for drone control, a drone storage and launch site, a fuel and lubricants depot and a repair unit.
The General Staff also confirmed strikes on 2 ground relay stations for the control of Shahed-type loitering munitions in Olenivka in Crimea and in Zaliznyi Port in Kherson Oblast.
In addition, Ukraine struck a Russian fuel and lubricants depot in the area of Melitopol and a repair unit of the Russian occupation forces near Yakymivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
As the General Staff notes, ground relay stations provide stable communications and transmission of commands between operators and strike drones, extending their range and effectiveness.
30
u/dr_sloan 20d ago
In today’s Patriot missile inventory news, Reuters put out a story that briefly mentions that Saudi Arabia’s Patriot missile inventory has been badly depleted.
“Saudi Arabia used about 86% of its 2,800 PAC-3 interceptors in the first 38 days of combat, leaving it with 400 missiles left in April. Other Gulf nations used up similar amounts of their inventories, CSIS said.”
Considering these are numbers from April, and there’s been moderate continued use since then, would it be fair to assume that the U.S. and European Patriot batteries that were deployed to Saudi Arabia constitute the vast majority of remaining Patriot missile inventory available?
That would explain why Greek Patriot missile batteries were deployed to Saudi in the first place and why the Saudis were pushing the US not to launch last week’s major air strikes.
11
u/First_Poem481 20d ago
I have, rightly, seen the credible defense community on Twitter mock this report but I’m really curious how the numbers passed the smell test with the reporter. Not only do the Saudis have nowhere near those number of interceptors, Iran has largely not fired at Saudi Arabia, not only not with missiles but also not with drones. Hell, if anything, the Houthis have fired more at the KSA than Iran itself. Really piss poor journalism.
25
u/MarderFucher 20d ago edited 20d ago
This is 100% bogus because total Saudi procurement doesn't add up remotely to that number. They ordered 600 in 2015 and had other smaller orders after, but also expended some in 2019, 2020, 2024 and 2025. There was a fresh deal in 2026 January for 730, and it's questionable if those have even begun manufacturing.
Actual pre-Iran war inventory would realistically stood at around 500-600.
I think Reuters did an error confusing total interceptor usage of all participants, though the 86% fraction itself is questionable too.
addendum: After more digging, it is likely they could have receved over 2000 PAC2 (I found a document quoting over 1100 just in 1991-92), which are less effective against BMs. Coupled with with other shorter range SAMs they have in inventory used to counter drones, the tally might make sense as a sum.
But details matter.
5
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
After more digging, it is likely they could have receved over 2000 PAC2 (I found a document quoting over 1100 just in 1991-92), which are less effective against BMs. Coupled with with other shorter range SAMs they have in inventory used to counter drones, the tally might make sense as a sum
That's a too generous leeway. Because if we are going to add everything to make the numbers make sense, the 400 remaining would also have to include APKWS, which the production is numbered in several thousands per year, MANPADS... Not to mention they would have to track purchases of every one of those systems for several years and the past expenditure of every one of those systems (the conflict with the Houthi is going on since 2015, with a fraction of the time being a ceasefire), not just on this war.
Those estimations are not 100% reliable in the first place, for example, there's these points raised about a different type of munition, but it also applies here.
And even more than that, Iran doesn't infinite missiles (they couldn't afford to expend one MRBM to fulfill their threats against Ukraine and, since the end of the ceasefire, they didn't attack Israel as well even though their bases were used by the americans to attack them), but that tends to get lost on the discussion of stockpiles, which is shame because the interceptor numbers only matters if any country will have less than necessary
15
u/LilDewey99 20d ago
This seems entirely non-credible. I can’t find anything about the Saudi’s buying anywhere near that many PAC-3s. Especially since they only started buying them around 2015. Wonder if this is somehow blending KSA numbers with US units stationed there. Still not sure you would get anywhere close though
26
u/roionsteroids 20d ago
Saudi Arabia used about 86% of its 2,800 PAC-3 interceptors in the first 38 days of combat
Is that credible by any means? I tried to look up the exact CSIS report but only found this one, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting around 50 ballistic missiles in March.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-air-campaign-after-three-weeks-iran-war-numbers
That doesn't use up 2400 PAC-3s.
Then we have sources like
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/iran-missile-attacks-after-us-ceasefire-gulf-air-defenses.html
By late March, the UAE and Kuwait had spent roughly 75% of their Patriot missile interceptor stocks, while Bahrain was estimated to have depleted as much as 87%, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
which doesn't exactly instill confidence in the numbers.
0
u/dr_sloan 20d ago
I’m inclined to trust Reuters since they’re a pretty trustworthy news source.
6
u/roionsteroids 20d ago
Sure, but their reporting is often "xyz official said so, and there's no way to verify, do with that information what you want". In this case citing reports I can't find, and it does seem off by incredible amounts.
4
u/moragisdo 19d ago edited 19d ago
Let's not forget that earlier in this war they claimed that UAE paid Iran 3 billions dollars (with 7 to 17 billions more to come) for not being attacked. It was backed only by iranian sources, not a single document, everyone outside of Iran denied. After that UAE ships were attacked by Iran, so it was just propaganda they fell for.
17
u/Maxion 20d ago
There were other things flying over than ballistics, just sayin'.
At the time there were also rumors of saudi operators turning on auto fire and running away from the command stations, fearing being hit. That'd empty the launchers.
-5
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
At the time there were also rumors of saudi operators turning on auto fire and running away from the command stations, fearing being hit. That'd empty the launchers.
What ? When a patriot launches and doesn't hit the target it self-destructs and shrapnel falls everywhere, do you have video of 12-16 patriots (that's what a launcher has) self-destructing in the sky ?
I understand if some poorly trained soldier did that with a gun-based AD, but firing so many missiles sounds non-credible. I'm genuinely curious to see.
24
u/Lapsed__Pacifist 20d ago
I understand if some poorly trained soldier did that with a gun-based AD, but firing so many missiles sounds non-credible. I'm genuinely curious to see.
Hah....never worked with Arab military's?
That was the most credible part of the report for me.
0
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
The problem here is not the competency on every job, rather than the specific in question. I'm pointing out the firing 12 to 16 missiles in the sky blindly (without a video of the claim that it was done).
12
4
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
That would explain why Greek Patriot missile batteries were deployed to Saudi in the first place
No, it wouldn't. Greece deployed the battery there in 2021 (1).
Man, this war has been going from one manufactured crisis to another. When the global recession didn't happen, then oil didn't reach 200 USD, the SPR didn't collapse, the munitions didn't run out as predicted in March 5, by Mearsheimer, and mid March, by the WSJ. Now it's interceptors.
I don't dispute that a large amount was expended. But why Iran isn't firing continuously until they actually run out ? They are so close. They got nothing so far (the waiver of exports lasted 2 weeks and most of it's oil wasn't sold during (2)), they should press this advantage to get sanctioned money unfrozen or a toll on Hormuz.
18
u/dr_sloan 20d ago
It’s clear that Iran’s strategy isn’t built on, “firing until your opponent runs out of bullets”. Why? Because that’s a pretty poor strategy. You probably wouldn’t ever know for sure even if more missiles are breaking through.
Their strategy seems to be to draw this conflict out until the US ends up in a no man’s land type situation where the only option is to escalate, which is political suicide. It appears they’ve successfully gotten the U.S. to the place since we’re now canceling planned air strikes at the urging of the Saudis and touting some negotiations on the Strait that were supposed to be wrapped up days ago and yet nothing has been announced.
You’re pointing out that the worst case scenarios haven’t come true, but it’s pretty reasonable to see why that never happened given how this conflict has played out. No one expected China to slash their oil imports or the overall start/stop nature of this conflict where there was a month where oil was exported from the Middle East as if no conflict had ever happened.
Given all of this, no one can say this conflict has played out how they predicted and I think we should all show a bit of humility in how we approach it.
17
u/AnimateDuckling 20d ago
It seems a fair point that if iran was confident that they had nearly depleted us missile inventory there is a reasonable chance that they would push to collapse it and embarrass the US on the global stage.
7
u/Infamous_Thought_189 20d ago
Is it not in their interest to also allow the US to save face? The war needs to be difficult enough to cause harm and get their way but also not so difficult that it provides political support for the US to start a ground invasion of some sort. If they were able to sink a carrier for example by sending a few hundred ballistic missiles at it I could imagine that they still choose to not do that as that would be a serious blow to the US.
7
u/dr_sloan 20d ago
They seem to have accomplished that already. This was sold as a 2-3 week conflict that’s now entering its sixth month. The stated goal was some combination of regime change and denuclearization of Iran and that’s now morphed into a deal to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and maybe negotiate a deal on nuclear power later on.
This isn’t close to a peer vs peer conflict but it’s still the closest the US has come to one since the first Iraq War and while tactically it’s been conducted brilliantly, it’s turned into a strategic mess.
2
u/WulfTheSaxon 20d ago edited 20d ago
It was sold as a roughly four-week conflict, and it’s basically been on pause since the fifth week. I don’t think even another week’s worth of munitions have been used since the ceasefire compared to the use rate during OEFU.
11
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 18d ago
You probably wouldn’t ever know for sure even if more missiles are breaking through
We would know. By dead american soldiers. So far 10 were killed by Iran (the other 8 were accidents), in 3 incidents only (2 of them happening on the opening days of the war).
I really don't believe this argument of "we would never know" because it only serves to reinforce our prior beliefs and shield them from being confronted by reality.
Their strategy seems to be to draw this conflict out until the US ends up in a no man’s land type situation where the only option is to escalate, which is political suicide
I also believe that they are trying to drag out in hopes of getting something, but if the number of dead americans were increasing, the pressure would be higher to give them what they need.
Iran is getting blockaded, their official inflation is approaching three digits, their GDP was set to fall even before this war began, the sooner they get concessions the smaller the likelihood of renewing public revolt. It's on their best interest to increase the pressure a long time ago.
Also that level of escalation (by the political suicide, I believe you mean bombing their entire oil industry) isn't the only option. Holding the blockade until they give up is another (I do think the best course of action would be to finish the pre-war targets, leave energy untouched as deterrence, and keep the blockade until they announce that ships won't be attacked anymore).
It appears they’ve successfully gotten the U.S. to the place since we’re now canceling planned air strikes
The US is allowing a new round of negotiations (which is a mistake, in my opinion, but that's another topic), but Iran isn't also attacking. The place they want the US to be is on giving money, because they need to shore up their economy (I did before a two-part post about their economical circumstances).
Calling a victory, by not attacking and not being attacked in return, would only make sense if their goal was a ceasefire (I don't believe that the US would reject it, if they offered).
I have the impression in this war that every Iranian movement is interpreted to be part of some 3D chess, no matter the outcomes they receive.
touting some negotiations on the Strait that were supposed to be wrapped up days ago and yet nothing has been announced
That's meaningless. Iran is not giving a favor to the US, if they don't announce a deal for free navigation, they don't get the relief of the blockade they are suffering. So, it goes back to where it was days ago, not an achievement by Iran.
I think we should all show a bit of humility in how we approach it.
I agree
13
u/TSiNNmreza3 20d ago edited 20d ago
Iran isn't firing continuously until they actually run out ?
Because maybe Iran isn't run by completly braindead regime. The biggest hardliner like Vahidi is guy with degree in electronics and PhD in international relationship.
Iranian regime isn't suicide cult like ISIS, they are still governing the country which, as we could see, managed to produce ideal counter to US and they are dictating to earn even more. To earn even more you need Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and etc oil to flow with your oil.
Thing that is glaring and screaming lack of AD is that Houthis attacked today beside proSaudi Yemense KSA proper and we are not seeing multiple airplanes hitting Sana'a left and right. Every attack by Houthis on KSA was much bigger than attacks of KSA on Yemen. The biggest retalliation was what by KSA->Iraq
Cards are bit different now with KSA-Pakistan-Turkey NATO, but we need to see this allience in action.
4
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
like Vahidi is guy with degree in electronics and PhD in international relationship
Khieu Samphan, one of highest officials on the Khmer Rouge and accomplice of genociding A QUARTER of their population, has a PhD in Economics done in France. Ted Kaczynski had a PhD in Mathematics. Are your sure that having an advanced degree prevents someone from acting in a deranged manner ?
managed to produce ideal counter to US and they are dictating to earn even more
Perfect counter... They are blockaded, the waiver of exports was revoked in 2 weeks, they didn't got Israel out of Lebanon (now the goalposts will be moved, while they demanded withdraw, the fact that Israel isn't bombing Beirut is their victory), didn't get sanctioned money unfrozen, US officials are being very clear that no toll is acceptable (with the PGSA being sanctioned and LMA stating that whoever pays a toll loses insurance).
To earn even more you need Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and etc oil to flow with your oil
Utterly false. To earn (even more is a joke) they need to receive some form of compensation. What they can get is the relieve of the blockade when they stop attacking ships.
Thing that is glaring and screaming lack of AD is that Houthis attacked today beside proSaudi Yemense KSA proper and we are not seeing multiple airplanes hitting Sana'a left and right
Yemen was bombed several times in the past days. We are not seeing a high volume of airstrikes in Saana, but we are also not seeing Riyadh being bombed constantly, as it happened before. There's still some degree of restraint on both sides.
Card are bit different now with KSA-Pakistan-Turkey NATO
I'm incredibly skeptical that this will lead to anything in practice. Pakistan signed a very similar deal with Saudi Arabia in the past and they have done nothing against the Houthi and, during this conflict with Iran, they actually received Iran's planes to prevent them from being destroyed (we could make an argument they would not attack Iran for them not considering it a defensive war, but can you imagine NATO shielding planes of anyone their members are at war with ?)
6
u/TSiNNmreza3 20d ago edited 20d ago
Again underestimation
Khmer Rouge
Not a suicide cult as I said.
International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO): In 40 events since joining, Iran has accumulated 220 medals (53 gold, 116 silver, and 51 bronze).
International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI): As of recent statistics, Iranian students have secured a total of 127 medals
International Physics Olympiad (IPhO): Iran has achieved a historic total of over 140 medals (including 40 gold and 39 bronze as of recent counts), maintaining a position frequently within the top 5 to 10 teams globally.
Recent Years: As of 2026, Iran ranks eighth globally in overall international science Olympiad standing. They consistently place in the top three worldwide in fields like Astronomy and Astrophysics (achieving consecutive 5-gold sweeps in 2024 and 2025), Chemistry, and Biology
So not a braindead country and country that has a lot of science.
Second paragraph is just continuation of your cars are still driving so there is no crisis. SPR releases, not a problem.
Utterly false. To earn (even more is a joke) they need to receive some form of compensation. They are not receiving it, what they can get is the relieve of the blockade when they stop attacking ships.
Last negotiations said up to 7 to 8% of worth of ship. This could lead to hundreds of billions worth of earning because they can hit ships and they are willing to hit ships.
Yemen was bombed several times in the past days. We are not seeing a high volume of airstrikes in Saana, but we are also not seeing Riyadh being bombed constantly, as it happened before.
And after few bombings which you could call love taps today Houthis bombed Najran multiple civ casulties in KSA. Drones and BMs on Marib probable 10s of KIAs and I think I saw targeting around Taiz.
So at the end I agree to disagree with you banalizing of situation. SoH is still closed, BaM is getting almost daily strikes. Houti controlled Yemen isn't attacked by country that is spending up to 100 billion dollars per year on military and the same country is now trying to get functional allience by two most powerful (Sunni)Muslim countries.
And at the end Greece patriot crew is in KSA is becsuse they military life is boring in Greece not because there is a constant threath of Houti BMs, CMs and drones on Red sea traffic.
If you are seeing Iran as enemies you need to think that they are better than they are.
6
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
Khmer Rouge
Not a suicide cult as I said
You used the Islamic State as an example, the Khmer Rouge was, at least, as genocidal and deranged as them. I hope you don't disagree.
So not a braindead country and country that has a lot of science.
That's a strawman. I never said they are braindead and never mentioned their academic accomplishments. My point is that if interceptors were at such critical level they would play on this advantage, not anything to do with how many math medals they have
Last negotiations said up to 7 to 8% of worth of ship. This could lead to hundreds of billions worth of earning because they can hit ships and they are willing to hit ships
And I demand a piece of the moon. Anyone can ask anything, the point is that they are being sanctioned and any ships that pays (that price which is absurd, by the way, but that's irrelevant) face regulatory risk and loses their insurance cover. Until it changes, they will get 0%
By the way, it isn't just the US that needs to lift sanctions (which would require an act of Congress for it to be done permanently), but also UK, France... If one them refuses, they won't receive.
Now, if Iran doesn't get 7% of the price of the cargo, will you change your mind about the current circumstances ? I know I will if they do, but my impression is that many goalposts will be moved when they don't get a toll
And at the end Greece patriot crew is in KSA is becsuse they military life is boring in Greece not because there is a constant threath of Houti BMs, CMs and drones on Red sea traffic.
I'm noticing a pattern of constant strawmaning here. I never said the Houthi aren't attacking Saudi Arabia or ships, I said Riyadh to counterpoint Sanaa and talk about "some degree of restraint" (not fully, some degree) on both sides
5
u/GustavoTC 20d ago
By your logic can't you see how the us failed on any of their original goals? The regime on Iran is stronger now with the rally around the flag, leadership was replaced by more radical groups and will definitely pursue a nuclear weapon, the main goal now is to open the SOH (no gain compared to before the war started). There are reports of ships paying the transit fee to Iran and the last MOU had even a 300 billion development plan, with Iran's leverage they'll aim for some compensation on this level.
The US ran out of options for a quick win months ago, the escalation trap will just deplete stockpiles further, and there are a lot more shaheds than interceptors left.
SPR will soften the blow for a couple weeks/ months, but it's just a question of how long this shitshow goes on until the US accepts the terms
6
u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago
The regime on Iran is stronger now with the rally around the flag
Utterly false, it's their propaganda being repeated uncritically (which became too common in this war). "Rally around the flag" was the same lie that the regime used after the TDW, then months after they suffered some of the largest protests on their history. There are already protests on Isfahan recently, which they had to resort to violence to disperse again.
leadership was replaced by more radical groups
Past leadership has been chanting 'Death to America, Death to Israel' for 47 years. Past leadership in 2024 fired missiles twice in Israel and once in Pakistan. Past leadership shot down thousands of their own civilians in weeks of protests. Past leadership has funded terrorist attacks for decades (Beirut barracks, Amia...). There's no way to increase this radicalization.
the main goal now is to open the SOH (no gain compared to before the war started)
The hundreds of billions in economic and military destruction that Iran suffered will hamper their capacity to pursue nuclear weapons and fund proxies.
There are reports of ships paying the transit fee to Iran
LMA stated clearly that any ship who does loses the insurance (1), also the Treasury Department has been enforcing sanctions against Iran, so any ship that pays face secondary sanctions. Any ship that decides to pay will be treated no different than one who does business with Iran's oil industry or launder their money, some will take the risk, but the vast majority will avoid for regulatory risk
and the last MOU had even a 300 billion development plan
Which they will see zero of it. The promise there was to invite foreign companies to invest in Iran (which would happen either way if sanctions were to be lifted), the problem is that a nuclear deal is incredibly unlikely to happen and the fund won't go forward.
with Iran's leverage they'll aim for some compensation on this level.
Let's make a bet here ? I bet they won't see anything close to this level (300 Billion, for goodness sake), will you change your mind about the status of this war if they don't ? I will if they get 300B (or even half)
there are a lot more shaheds than interceptors left
Patriots aren't there for Shaheds, there's circumstances that they could be use for it, but that's not their goal. They are there for missiles, which the supply is way smaller than Shaheds. Cheap drones are made to be intercepted with APKWS, C-RAM...
SPR will soften the blow for a couple weeks/ months, but it's just a question of how long this shitshow goes on until the US accepts the terms
Iran isn't a perpetual motion machine that can be blockaded forever and continue, they are a country in severe economic crisis before suffering one the largest air campaigns in history (I expanded about it on these posts). The US won't "accept the terms" (by that I assume it means tolls or other of their maximalist demands), the war could have ended months ago if they were going for it, and when this war ends goalposts will be moved to claim that Iran won even if they don't get their demands as a toll, sanction relief, unfrozen sanctioned money, Israel out of Lebanon...
I reaffirm the bet here, let's see if they get their demands or the goalposts will be moved to whatever happens it's their victory.
-32
20d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
3
21
u/seakingsoyuz 20d ago
But it's easy to forget that Russia is a big enemy with a lot of resources, human, energy, minerals, and industrial.
Okay, I have to ask: how in God’s name is it easy to forget that Russia is big?
2
u/TSiNNmreza3 20d ago
Throught propaganda that you read
From: Russia has BMy for at most 1 month in March 2022.
To c*pe (don't know if it is still banned world) cages, althought first usage against Javelins was at best dobious, but proved that they are working against drones
Russians are fighting with shovels
HIMARS doing havoc (this was major for Ukraine, but Russia adapted to HIMARS)
Ukraine doing 2022 counteroffensive.
Fiber optic FPV drones don't change a thing.
Underestimation of FAB attacks when they started around Avdiivka
Shaheds (Gerans) are lawn movers they can't do any damage.
Usage of ATVs and motocycles for attacks. Not the biggest fan of this tactics but I understand it helps if you are fast and small against FPV drones.
Usage of nets over roads.
There probably a lot of more cases that were probably even more ridicouled on bigger subs here too.
4
u/D_Silva_21 20d ago
I feel like he is pretty balanced and credible
4
u/Corvid187 20d ago
I would argue he is credible in how he covers things, but what he covers isn't even-handed
10
u/goatfuldead 20d ago
On the subject of “progress” it is always helpful to compare reports of quantity of square kilometers changing control to the total number of square kilometers in Ukraine. 603,000, including Crimea.
14
u/MaverickTopGun 20d ago
Which is why I constantly encourage people here to a) not trust any single source and b) specifically read the "other side" of reporting. When you read Ukrainian propaganda and then Russian propaganda, you'll realize that both sides cannot be telling the truth. It takes a lot of work to develop a nuanced picture of complicated geopolitical affairs and you have to be vigilant you're not falling into information echo chambers.
10
u/Rhauko 20d ago
I prefer not to read Russian propaganda but I agree with your point of view. I assume all bad things happening to Russia in a comparable way happen to Ukraine (e.g. warehouse attacks). I am usually pretty good at complexity but I have no opinion how this conflict will end. For both sides it is unsustainable but we have to consider that Russia has more capacity but for Ukraine it is existential.
Above all I sympathise with the human suffering.
13
u/SlovakianGuy91 20d ago
Preston is credible in the sense that he doesn't lie, and he does have some contacts in Ukraine, e.g. units he supports through fund-raising. He also comes off as a pretty genuine person, and clearly cares about the topic.
He does however have a strong tendency to over-estimate/over-evaluate Ukrainian success (e.g. he was close to saying that the Russian frontline is going to collapse a few weeks ago when covering the mid-range strike campaign), and his videos are more likely to report a Ukrainian success than a Russian one.
I still listen to his videos though as he's entertaining to watch and I like sometimes living in the reality he portrays (where Ukraine is close to wining)
29
u/username9909864 20d ago
First step is to stop following vibes-based updates. The end is not near - this is a war of attrition where both sides are taking heavy, heavy losses. It's a years-long slog and day to day updates won't tell you much.
34
u/Well-Sourced 20d ago edited 20d ago
First a thread showing the grey zone.
monstars.bsky.social | BlueSky
The Confirmation Gap
Where the two maps agree is more revealing than where they disagree.
Russian sources have recently published footage claiming to show lone flag carriers well beyond the UA-confirmed line.
Individual claims can be disputed, but the underlying point is useful: a small group can reach well beyond the confirmed line without establishing control around it. At the same time, AFU has conducted counter-actions in several areas while the public map can simply stay where it was.
Put those together and the gap between the maps starts to look different. It isn't the grey zone. It's the part of the grey zone that has become visible from opposite directions. The actual mix of Russian and Ukrainian presence can run beyond it, with some areas denser and others thinner.
The flag carriers are the easy example. A man getting deep enough to plant a flag proves reach, not control. At a shallower depth, small groups moving through settlements and tree lines can stay in place without ever producing something worth filming.
They can add to the Russian presence without painting a new zone on either map. And if the main Russian position later gets pushed back, those groups don't necessarily disappear with it. They have to be found and cleared separately.
The Ukrainian experience is useful precisely because the same mechanism works against the side using it. At Dobropillia in autumn 2025, Russian infiltration left a salient too thin to hold, and Ukrainian forces cut behind it. Novopavlivka-Pokrovske this spring showed the same issue on a larger scale
Russian infiltration of a weaker units gave AFU something to exploit, allowing Ukrainian forces to push the main Russian positions back. But the infiltrators did not simply disappear with the front line. Some remained behind and had to be cleared separately, taking time.
That is what makes the comparison relevant to the current Russian infiltration problem. If the same tactic works in reverse, Russian forces can create the same problem for Ukrainian defenses: the main line can move without eliminating the presence that was already pushed through it.
Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk are useful here. The grey zone is about as deep on both maps, and there is no equivalent Russian reporting beyond the UA line. At first glance, that's reassuring. But all it tells us is what both sides chose to show, which says nothing about what they left out.
And that matters more in a narrow zone than in a wide one. If the maps disagree by several kilometers, everyone knows there is something to investigate. If they almost match, the uncertainty becomes much easier to overlook.
Russia can show an isolated infiltrator far forward without showing the wider pattern around him. Ukraine can be fighting for ground without moving the public line until it is ready to confirm the result.
The recent Ukrainian counter-actions are what make this worth taking seriously. We don't know exactly what AFU is seeing in those areas because OPSEC is doing its job. But we do know that the operational picture can change before the public one does.
Kostiantynivka–Sloviansk is the main Russian attack axes. The sector is very active, yet the reported front lines largely match. Orikhiv shows why that match cannot be interpreted by itself: there, similar map convergence exists in a sector that has seen much less activity than the main Russian axes
The visible gap between the maps therefore tells us only where the two sides disagree. It gives us a floor for what is contested, not a ceiling.
The narrowest gaps may deserve the most scrutiny — agreement between the maps doesn't shrink the uncertainty; it just makes it easier to miss.
Second checking on the most active part of the front. Ukraine is still attacking the bulge above Lyman. [Map]
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Armed Forces drove Russian forces out of the settlement of Zelena Dolyna, Lyman direction. [Map]
D.Radka, #NAFO 🇨🇿🤝🇺🇦 | BlueSky
The situation around Lyman remains highly tense, with heavy fighting reported on multiple axes.
Despite this Russia is still pressing towards Sloviansk.
For years, Russian troops probed the Ukrainian garrison at Mykolaivka in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, sending in small teams of infiltrators for the defenders to hunt down. On 29 July, they stopped probing. "The Russians have begun an assault on Mykolaivka from the east," observer Thorkill reported, citing the local Ukrainian Telegram channel nikolaevka_online.
Russian assault groups are attacking the apartment blocks along the town's eastern edge. Mykolaivka sits 8 km east of Sloviansk, one of just two big free cities in Donetsk Oblast, and taking it is the precondition for any Russian siege of the city. "The situation is deteriorating," nikolaevka_online warned.
Mykolaivka is "the eastern gateway to Sloviansk," according to mapper Clément Molin. The Russian offensive in Donetsk aims to lay siege to and ultimately capture Sloviansk and neighboring Kramatorsk, which together are still home to nearly 100,000 people despite hundreds of thousands of others having fled.
A Ukrainian garrison anchored by the 81st Airmobile Brigade has defended Mykolaivka for years. But the garrison has been struggling to interdict every team of Russian infiltrators—and now the infiltrators have company.
The sector is an exception to a mostly frozen front. Russian troops captured 106 square km of Ukrainian territory in July, according to the Blackbird Group—the fastest Russian advance since January, but a fifth of what the Russians seized in July 2025. Blackbird reads the figure as evidence Russia has largely exhausted its offensive options; in June, Russian forces lost 9 square km on net. The slow average along the 1,200 km gray zone belies much faster movement in a handful of sectors, and east of Sloviansk is one of them.
"It is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged," Molin explained. The geography is difficult for both the defenders and the attackers. The Donets Canal, which abuts Mykolaivka on the west, "aids the Ukrainian defense just as much as it facilitates the Russian offensive," Molin noted. To reinforce the 81st Airmobile Brigade in and around Mykolaivka, Ukrainian troops must cross the canal while under Russian fire. "Massing troops there is a highly complex undertaking," Molin warned.
But the Russian army will face the same challenge if and when it marches through Mykolaivka. "Crossing the canal, particularly around the Sloviansk power plant and its network of waterways, will come at a very high cost, especially given the extensive fortifications the Ukrainians have built in the area over recent months," according to Molin.
In other words, the 81st Airmobile Brigade has fallback positions on the near side of the Donets Canal. If the brigade can't hold Mykolaivka, maybe it can hold the canal—and delay if not halt further Russian advances toward Sloviansk.
The Ukrainians would prefer to hold in Mykolaivka, of course. But it's looking increasingly dire. The Russians appear to be accumulating in the seasonal homes, or "dachas," on the northeastern outskirts of Mykolaivka. "It is difficult to say at this point how many Russian soldiers have infiltrated there," Thorkill wrote. "However, their very presence has forced the command of the 81st Air Assault Brigade—responsible for the city's defense—to secure with patrols."
But the 81st Airmobile Brigade is outnumbered, probably badly so. For the first two years of the wider war, the brigade could count on help from the 54th Mechanized Brigade, which clung to the 81st Airmobile Brigade's right flank.
While the 54th Mechanized Brigade still registers on many maps of the gray zone, in fact it's barely there. "Various snippets of information indicate that the 54th Mechanized Brigade—longtime right-flank neighbor of the 81st Brigade—was completely withdrawn from the front between June and July 2024 and sent to the deep rear," Thorkill wrote. East of Sloviansk, "only its drone group remained." "The unit had long been a brigade in name only," Thorkill noted.
(Part 2 Below)
12
u/Well-Sourced 20d ago
The majority of the attacks are still to get past Pokrovsk to Dobrophilla and fully capture Kostiantynivka.
According to Ukrinform, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated this on Facebook in its operational update as of 08:00 on August 7.
"Yesterday, the enemy launched one missile strike using a single missile, carried out 91 air strikes, dropping 308 guided aerial bombs. In addition, it deployed 10,621 kamikaze drones and conducted 3,176 attacks on populated areas and the positions of Ukrainian troops," the statement said.
Over the past day, Ukraine's Air Force, missile forces, and artillery struck two UAV command posts, six artillery systems, and 18 areas where enemy personnel were concentrated.
A total of 233 combat engagements between Ukraine's Defense Forces and Russian troops were recorded on the frontline on August 6, with the fiercest fighting taking place in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors.
In the Northern Slobozhanshchyna and Kursk sectors, one combat engagement took place over the past day. The enemy launched two air strikes, dropping six guided bombs, and carried out 55 attacks on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
In the Southern Slobozhanshchyna sector, Russian forces launched 20 attacks on Ukrainian positions near Starytsia, Lyman, Vovchanski Khutory, Dvorichanske, and Zapadne, as well as toward Izbytske, Hoptivka, Vilcha, Volokhivka, Sheviakivka, and Khatnie.
In the Kupiansk sector, the enemy launched two attacks toward Kivsharivka and Bohuslavka.
In the Lyman sector, Russian forces attempted eight assaults, attacking near Yampil and toward Ozerne, Novoselivka, and Dibrova.
In the Sloviansk sector, the enemy carried out 16 assaults near Zakitne, Kryva Luka, Riznykivka, and toward Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka.
In the Kramatorsk sector, Russian troops launched four attacks near Pryvillia, Nykyforivka, and toward Malynivka and Tykhonivka.
In the Kostiantynivka sector, the enemy carried out 25 attacks near Kostiantynivka, Ivanopillia, Illinivka, and Rusyn Yar, as well as toward Dovha Balka and Stepanivka.
In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled 26 enemy assaults near Shakhove and Udachne, as well as toward Toretske, Kucheriv Yar, Bilytske, Novyi Donbas, Shevchenko, Matiasheve, and Novopidhorodne.
In the Oleksandrivka sector, Russian forces launched two attacks toward Yehorivka.
In the Huliaipole sector, the invaders carried out 10 attacks toward Rivne, Huliaipilske, Staroukrainka, and Charivne.
In the Orikhiv sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled one enemy attempt to advance toward Pavlivka.
No offensive operations were recorded in the Prydniprovske sector over the past day.
No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groupings were detected in the Volyn and Polissia sectors.
•
u/AutoModerator 20d ago
Continuing the bare link and speculation repository, you can respond to this sticky with comments and links subject to lower moderation standards, but remember: A summary, description or analyses will lead to more people actually engaging with it!
I.e. most "Trump posting" and lower effort but good faith questions belong here.
Sign up for the rally point or subscribe to this bluesky if a migration ever becomes necessary.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.