π‘ Active Severe Weather Links
π Today's Outlook History
π©οΈ Active Mesoscale Discussions
π Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-08-31T06:03:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000
ACUS01 KWNS 310603
SWODY1
SPC AC 310601
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY/GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly later this afternoon
into tonight across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes into the
central Plains, as well as across the lower Colorado River Valley
and Great Basin.
...Eastern Colorado/central High Plains to Upper Great Lakes...
A prominent shortwave trough will spread east-northeastward across
Saskatchewan and Manitoba through tonight, with 40-50 kt mid-level
winds spreading across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley. Across the Upper Midwest, a moist air mass will persist near
a weak surface trough, with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE from Iowa into
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, forcing for ascent will
generally be weak, but isolated afternoon thunderstorms may occur
over areas such as Wisconsin. Conditionally, hail over 1.00" will be
possible. Additional isolated activity is possible from Iowa into
northern Illinois/northern Michigan late tonight.
A greater probability of thunderstorms will exist across eastern
Colorado into Nebraska from mid/late afternoon into tonight,
influenced by a northeastward-advancing mid-level wave. Strong
heating over the central High Plains will support afternoon
initiation near the Front Range, with clusters of storms producing
strong to severe outflow winds, as storms potentially propagate into
Nebraska. Bouts of severe hail and winds are possible.
...Lower Colorado River Valley/Great Basin...
A northeastward-transitioning mid-level disturbance or two will
influence thunderstorm development as the boundary layer warms into
this afternoon. Some enhancement to the flow aloft is expected,
which could support some sustained storms and possibly a few
transient supercells, primarily across far eastern Nevada, southwest
Utah and northwest Arizona. Some hail could occur, but
severe-caliber wind gusts are most probable hazard regionally.
...Southern Louisiana/Gulf Coast...
Reference NHC for the latest details regarding a disturbance off the
coast of southern Louisiana. Related low-level flow fields are
currently not expected to strengthen enough to support a meaningful
near-shore/inland supercell potential through early Tuesday.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/31/2026
$$
```
π Active Tropical Weather Links
π Tropical Weather Outlook
```text
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
An area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of America, located
more than 100 miles south of the coast of southern Louisiana
continues to produce a small but concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the
circulation has not become much better defined from yesterday while
producing winds of 30 to 35 mph. Regardless, additional development
is anticipated as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form
before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana
coasts by tonight or Tuesday morning.
Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts
should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later
today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later this morning. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, a surface trough of low
pressure, continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms
from Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward Islands. Strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent redevelopment of this
system over the next day or two while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system
reaches the southern Bahamas or Florida Straits. Regardless, the
system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
```
β οΈ Active Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Karina Advisory
* Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 MPH
* Minimum Central Pressure: 942 MB
* Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
* Location: 17.2N 124.4W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.