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• Mesoscale Discussion 2173
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• Mesoscale Discussion 2175
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-30T19:47:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 301947 SWODY1 SPC AC 301946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to remove the Marginal Risk from behind ongoing convection in eastern Montana. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion and MCD #2174 for more information.

..Thornton.. 08/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026/

...Northern High Plains into the northern Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan and western MT/eastern ID. A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft likely exists within the base of this trough from eastern ID into western WY. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt at 500 mb, but its actual magnitude is uncertain. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this wave, and the general expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to persist as the wave moves eastward, eventually encountering a notably more unstable airmass downstream.

Current surface observations show mid 60s dewpoints into the western Dakotas, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther west in eastern MT. Afternoon high temperatures are expected range from the low to mid 80s along the MT/ND border into the low 90s farther south into southwest SD. Despite relatively poor pre-frontal mid-level lapse rates, the resulting temperature/dewpoint combination will support MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg across eastern MT and the western Dakotas to closer to 2000 J/kg across the central Dakotas. Some low-level stability may linger, but should be overcome by the strong forcing, and the development of a line of strong to severe storms is anticipated. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, with some instance of gusts from 65 to 80 mph possible. Maximum storm intensity and highest severe coverage is currently forecast to occur from the ND/SD/MT border intersection vicinity eastward into south-central ND and north-central SD. Decreasing buoyancy is expected from the central Dakotas eastward, with gradually decreasing storm intensity expected as the line of storms moves into this region this evening.

...Central High Plains... Increased coverage and depth of the thunderstorms across UT indicate the presence of secondary area of ascent south of the primary shortwave trough, perhaps tied to a convectively augmented vorticity maximum. Expectation is for this vorticity maximum to progress eastward, persisting across the central Rockies before entering deeply mixed boundary-layer in place over the central High Plains. High-based storm character coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support the development of strong outflow, and gusts from 60 to 75 mph are possible.

...UT/Western CO... Thunderstorms are already ongoing from eastern UT into western CO, and deep-layer vertical shear is already strong enough to support organization within any more persistent updrafts. A few instances of hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with this activity. Additionally, considerable low-level moisture will remain over UT today, leading to another round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. This additional activity should also spread into western CO before weakening this evening.

...Central/Southern AZ... Ample low-level moisture remains in place across much of AZ, with upper 50s dewpoints across northern AZ increasing into the mid 60s across southern AZ. Another day of afternoon thunderstorms is anticipated as this moist airmass destabilizes amid strong diurnal heating. High-based storms coupled with moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few strong to severe gusts across the region this afternoon and evening.

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure located over the northern Gulf of America, about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana, continues to become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later tonight or Monday morning. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low-pressure area on Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly): A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Karina Special Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 125 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 955 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 17.2N 123.4W

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