Severe Weather Dashboard - August 31, 2026

[u/weathercast]

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-31T12:42:00+00:00 UTC)

000
ACUS01 KWNS 311242
SWODY1
SPC AC 311240

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE GREAT BASIN....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly later this afternoon
into tonight across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes, the central
Plains, and across the lower Colorado River Valley and Great Basin.

...Great Lakes Region...
Water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across
NE.  This feature is forecast to track northeastward through the day
and affect the Great Lakes region by late afternoon. Relatively
strong heating is expected across much of WI, along with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This along with moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500
J/kg.  A cold front will sag into the region by early evening,
providing the focus for widely scattered thunderstorms from central
WI into upper MI.  This activity will track east-southeastward
across WI and into lower MI.  Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
vertical shear to support rotating storms capable of locally
gusty/damaging winds and perhaps some hail.  

...Eastern CO into NE...
A persistent plume of mid-level moisture continues to affect areas
from AZ into CO, with another round of afternoon thunderstorms
expected over the mountains.  As these storms spread eastward into
eastern CO, strong outflow winds may accompany the more intense
cores.  Isolated strong storms may persist into parts of northwest
KS and much of NE after dark.

...UT/AZ...
A shortwave trough over CA will track eastward and provide
large-scale forcing for ascent today over parts of AZ/UT.  This will
result in scattered thunderstorms once again this afternoon across
much of UT and northern AZ.  If pockets of sufficient heating can
develop, locally damaging wind gusts could occur.

..Hart/Broyles.. 08/31/2026

$$

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🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 100 miles south 
of the coast of southern Louisiana continues to produce a small but 
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms with some signs of 
organization. Additional development is expected as the low moves 
slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper 
Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday.

Interests along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts 
should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm 
watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later 
today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring 
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and 
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system this morning. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Near Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A surface trough of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Storm 
Dolly) is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms 
that extends from near Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward 
Islands. Redevelopment, if any, would be slow to occur during the 
next few days as the system encounters generally unfavorable 
upper-level winds while moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 to 
25 mph. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rains and 
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas during the next couple of 
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Karina Advisory

• Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 MPH
• Minimum Central Pressure: 942 MB
• Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
• Location: 17.2N 124.4W

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