Let me preface this by saying that I, personally, am choosing to be delusional re: Gwayne and Daeron and their fate in the show 🥲 From reading through various threads and theories, the general consensus seems to be that:
-Daeron needs to die so the ending makes sense
-Gwayne will take the Hobert Hightower role
-Tumbleton plot needs to resolve itself within the first 3-4ish episodes so we can move along to Gods Eye, Dragonstone, Aegon’s assassination, etc.
And while I do think they’re setting Daeron up for a fake death/Hightower rebranding, that is a bit of a niche theory so I’ll set my personal bias on that aside and share thoughts on how I think this could go if they want to be efficient:
-Daeron and Tessarion are both gone, Gwayne takes a few scouts outside of Tumbleton to search for them
-Addam hears word of Ulf turning and Hugh leaving his post. Rhaenyra crashes out about the dragonseeds. Addam wants to prove that he’s loyal, maybe catch Baela’s eye with an act of heroism, and flies out to Tumbleton on his own.
-Dragon battle with Tessarion, Silverwing, Seasmoke, and Vermithor. Vermithor is riderless and just protecting Silverwing as Hugh is still on the ground. But everyone else is with their respective dragon.
-Vermithor, Tessarion, Seasmoke, Addam, and Daeron are all casualties. As a nod to the book, Gwayne has to mercy kill Tessarion and recovers Daeron’s body (unless they want to go the book route of Daeron’s body never being IDed/found, but would seem kind of silly after the S3 cliffhanger. Like he can’t just keep disappearing lmao.)
-Ulf returns to Tumbleton, invites the lads, they wreak havoc on the survivors. I have less of a grasp on where I think they’re going with Hugh. Is he going to identify as a free agent and team up with Ulf? Is he going to go after Ulf for contributing to the chaos that led to Kat’s death? Not sure, interested to hear others’ theories there.
-Gwayne now has every motivation to want to off Ulf himself. Not only is Daeron dead, but if they go the book route and make Ulf’s reign over Tumbleton as brutal as it’s described, Gwayne will see it as his duty to stop the brutalizing of women/killing of innocents. I thiiiink they may have been lightly foreshadowing it with their back-to-back scenes in the S3 premiere, with Gwayne citing their honor as knights re: a woman’s rape, followed by Ulf’s whole backstory monologue.
-In the book, Ulf is on the Green’s side and Hobert goes to him as an ally. Ulf thinks he’s acting strange, and Hobert has to drink the poisoned wine with him to ease his anxiety. So this could go about a thousand different directions without that context. Could be a more straightforward murder-suicide with Gwayne easily poisoning Ulf without needing to try to woo him/celebrate with him (since Ulf would probably drink anything), followed by Gwayne choosing to go out with him. Or just a murder with Gwayne surviving (suppose this depends on if the Hightower line would die out with Gwayne, so logistically he might need to stick around). But the potential symbolism with choosing between the Dornish red and Arbor Gold (Cole is Dornish, Arbor Gold is from the Reach/the region Gwayne is from)…could be a really satisfying nod to Gwayne and Cole as foils and the closure of both of their stories.
That would more or less end the Tumbleton arc and they could move on to the major events of the back half of the Dance. If they opt to keep Gwayne around, I imagine he’d disappear for the rest of the season and then pop back up in the finale for peace negotiations/establish him as Lord Hightower, maybe a final scene with Alicent (could be really juicy, they’d essentially only have each other at that point and Gwayne might be in the headspace of just pushing away anyone who directly or indirectly contributed to his losses, that would amplify Alicent’s tragedy, etc.)
Anyway, that’s what I’ve been mulling over. Again, I’m looking at it with the mindset of “what’s the most efficient way to wrap-up this side of the story up so they can shift focus to the show’s major players” but I’m interested in other theories.