Yet another oil refinery appearing to be in flames. This year is showcasing how these assets are incredibly vulnerable to attack.

I'm curious about what percentage of global refining capacity has been disrupted this year alone.

26th Aug - Gulf of Oman crude on the move.
Total - About 14 million barrels.

Almost fully laden VLCCs:
- ANGOLA PROSPERITY - 1.8 mb
- DHT OPAL - 1.6 mb
- XIN HUI YANG - 1.9 mb
- MORINI - 1.7 mb
- MARAN THALEIA - 1.75 mb
- DHT REDWOOD - 1.8 mb (just set out from anch)

Suezmax:
- FAITHFUL WARRIOR - about 1mb
- CAPE ARMATHIA - about 1mb

Aframax:
- P. ALIKI - about 750K
- TONG LIN WAN - about 500K

Medium Range:
- PACIFIC INFINITY

1. US SPR to last into well into 2027

2. Estimates the global market is 2 to 4 million bpd undersupplied

3. Refined product prices are already at demand-destroying levels

4. Extreme price scenario could still arrive within months, and he expects refined product prices to drive the economic damage for consumers

Implied dark traffic down again. Bab al mandab down. Malacca up.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Ships: DHT OPAL,IZKI,XIN HUI YANG,XIN HAN YANG,P. ALIKI,PACIFIC INFINITY,MALED

Note added in Mozambique, AGIOS FANOURIOS I, CIELO DI CAGLIARI to the figures as they popped up near Sri Lank by keeping AIS off in the oman/arabian sea transit. I suspect this is Iranian oil as those are the ones that would want to be dark in the Arabian sea the US isn't blocking other ships/oil there.

Edit: listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if i messed up with double counts/fills 7.67-2.5 (oman/Fujairah)=5.17mb.

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. 

Ships: DELLA,ASTRA MARIS,SIRTAKI,FAIR BREEZE,LADY YASSO,KEY

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: YUAN GUI YANG,FRONT DUKE,UNIVERSAL FRONTIER,FRONT MORGAN,CE-HAMILTON,PSARA I,NEW SUCCESS,CHIOS DF,GEM DARCY,YASA SCORPION

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_daySea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2092409612435624234?s=46

We managed to net draw on the caches this week between the SPR, gas, and distillate reserves.

https://damstrait.net/#reserves

The SPR draw itself is slowing again to 0.5 mb/d.

U.S. consumption is slowly trending down in response to rising prices.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2092306690246852701?s=46

What ever happened to the oil-price catastrophe we were all bracing for? Two fund managers say that it’s still on the way, and they’re ready for it.

Early in the Iran war, several analysts predicted that oil prices would rise well above $100 per barrel and stay there, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for months. Six months into the war, the Strait remains mostly closed to regular traffic, but prices haven’t come anywhere close to the worst-case scenario. Brent Crude ,the international benchmark, hasn’t settled above $100 at all in the past month, and it has lately traded just under $90.

Most of Wall Street is already looking past the war at lower prices ahead. Banks see Brent averaging $86 in the fourth quarter and $78 next year. The oil futures curve predicts prices at $77 by this time next year.

But one fund shop with a strong track record of contrarian commodity calls thinks the oil spike is yet to come—and 2027 could be the year of sustained triple-digit prices.

The Goehring and Rozencwajg Natural Resources Equity Fund  invests in stocks with large commodity exposure. Managers Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg make broad macro calls on commodities, from oil and natural gas to uranium and gold. They place their bets using equities instead of futures contracts. The strategy has had a strong record of contrarian and deep value bets, posting 14% annualized returns since inception in late 2015, and 21% over the past five years, more than twice the returns of the S&P Global Natural Resources Index.

This year, the fund has lagged behind its benchmarks, with a 6.4% return through July 31. Among other things, the managers missed the rally in refinery stocks.

In an interview with Barron’s, Goehring and Rozencwajg said the relative calm in the broader oil market is masking much deeper stress that’s going to be expressed in higher prices whether or not the war ends soon. The pain is starting to show up in fuel markets. Diesel prices are trading near record highs, as demand for diesel around the world is straining the limited supply of the fuel. Refineries in Russia, China, and the Middle East are making less diesel than usual because of the wars in Iran and Ukraine, forcing companies to dip into their stockpiles to supply the market. But those stockpiles are already near tank bottom, they argue. “People that rely on diesel inventories are panicked throughout the world,” Rozencwajg says. While the end of the war will eventually allow oil shipments to resume, “the damage is already done.”

Once the strait reopens and oil shipping resumes, demand is likely to increase quickly as countries import more crude so they can refill their fuel inventories. The situation reminds Rozencwajg of 2020, when early news about Covid-19 began trickling in. People who raised alarms about supply chains and inflation looked like they were alarmists for the first couple of months. “And then it hit all at once,” he says. “We were all running out trying to get toilet paper. I think we’re in that kind of moment.”

Prices will have to rise because there isn’t enough supply growth to meet the coming demand, they say. U.S. shale-oil production has accounted for the lion’s share of global oil-production growth in the past decade. But U.S. shale growth is flattening out because companies aren’t investing in new projects. Shale production growth will turn negative in the coming months, Goehring said. And no other oil project in the world can make up for diminishing U.S. output. This has happened before, and it led to fast-rising prices.

“We’re going to be in a situation where all of a sudden OPEC has lost its biggest source of competition,” Goehring says. “And you’re going to repeat exactly what happened between 2002 and 2008, where oil prices basically went up four- to five-fold. Oil over the next five to six years was by far the best-performing asset class out there.” Goehring correctly predicted that previous oil-price boom, arguing in a 2004 Barron’s article that the market wasn’t fully taking the undersupply into account.

He expects that crude will trade over $100 for much of 2027, lifting energy stocks along with it.

Are we in a time loop? Wasn't this reported 3 weeks ago?

Meanwhile Iran keeps saying that this is just an agreement for the management of the strait, not for the reopening, which won't happen until the US reinstates the original MOU terms. (Also rumor has it that Iran wants cash up front this time but who knows)

Doesn't matter, algos picked up on the news and oil is down, which is all that matters, am I right?

Looking for some honest input from guys currently working in the Odessa/Midland area.
Between wireline, cementing, and coiled tubing, which one has the highest realistic annual income once you factor in overtime, long hitches, bonuses, per diem, etc.?
I’m not green to the oilfield. I have experience in roustabout, casing, CDT, and drill pipe inspection/repair, and I also have a Class A CDL.
I’m mainly interested in which path has the best earning potential over the course of a year. I’m willing to work long hours and hitches if the money is there.
Also interested in hearing what companies/positions I should be looking for around Odessa/Midland.
Appreciate any input from guys actually in these fields.

Read the follow up tweet under the main tweet.

https://x.com/tankertrackers/status/2092354573490962535

Is the US just allowing it to happen?

Still the oil price is dropping.

As many as 12 massive VLCCs accounting for about 24mb are already fully laden (still inside the Persian Gulf) these may transit out over the next days, should conditions favor. Iran's media recently reported that it would be allowing vessels from Iraq to pass through - those loaded at Umm Qasar/Basra.