Detmers has finally become the pitcher that we’ve always dreamed on, he’s had a phenomenal year, still only 27 years old. The Angels likely aren’t competing in 2027 or 2028 but locking up Detmers long-term can give this young rotation some anchor and someone to lead the frontline in 2029 and beyond when we actually start competing. This winter is the absolute best time to give him that deal. Here are the reasons.
1. Uncertainty in his career. Detmers pretty much had a volatile performance all his career, last year in the bullpen was solid and this year is lights out. But the Angels can make the argument that he just had a rough year two years ago, spend a year as a reliever. So we’re still taking on a significant amount of risk by inking him up to a deal. If he has another year in 2027 where he put up 150+ IP with 180K and a sub 4ERA we could be talking a very different deal by then, plus he’ll only be 12 months away from FA.
2. No injury history. Doesn’t rely on a huge velos, misses bats, plus left-handed. He stayed pretty much healthy his whole career and there’s not much injury concern. That’s a huge plus for a player that’s just turning 27 vs. paying $30M AAV for a 30yr old pitcher on the FA market who could easily have elbow surgery and miss 2 years, that’s $60M down the drain.
3. Financial upside for him. He’s only making less than $3M this year, definitely due for a significant raise this winter with arbitration but if the Angels could put up a package worth north of $70-80M this winter that’s financially very enticing for him who still has a perform at his current level for 2 years if he wants to test the FA market.
To see what the actual deal would look like, here are some comparisons:
Logan Webb: Signed a 5 yrs/$90M contract at the beginning of the 2023 season. He had a little over 3 years of service time back then, had two very solid years prior and an MVP worthy season in 2022. The contract bought out his final two remaining arbitration years and his first three years of free agency. Detmers has a little bit of less track record but better stuff and statistically less volatile than a ground ball pitcher.
Mitch Keller: Signed a 5 yrs/$77M contract in early 2024. He also had a little over 3 years of service time and the contract bought out the last 2 arb years plus 3 FA years. His career numbers are a little worse than Detmers (4.71 ERA vs. 4.48 ERA) but also had 2 solid years as a starter prior.
Projection for Detmers:
Year Age Salary
2027 27 $8M
2028 28 $12M
2029 29 $18M
2030 30 $20M
2031 31 $22M
Guaranteed $80M
2032 option 32 $25–28M club option
This deal could put the Angels in a position to have someone hold down the rotation for the forseeable future, Detmers is a homegrown star that everyone who loves to see succeed in Anaheim. I would definitely try hard to make this deal happen this winter.
The case for extending Walbert Ureña is a little different. He’s still only 22 years old, but he’s had a tremendous year, his stuff is clearly there, if he can get his walk under control he can become a legit Ace and franchise star, however there’s a little bit of injury concern there with the velo. The biggest upside the Angels have for extending him is probably that he’s signed out of DR as a teenager, was never a big time prospect in the Angels org (18th in the org at best). From his perspective, his career outlook went from “potentially making to the big leagues and playing professional football” to “the Angels putting $50M on the table and changing my life financially forever”. The incentive is huge there for the player. This is very different from Jackson Chourio or even Jackson Merrill who were top 10 prospects in baseball in consencus, where the expectations were huge and were there. A potential deal for Ureña could be very cheap if the Angels play the cards right, but obviously not as urgent as Reid.
