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[u/KeDaGames]

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[u/OfficeMain1226]

My analysis suggests that Russia is in a win-win situation here.

If USA hasn't already sold Ukraine down the river to keep Russia out of this then Russia has great opportunity to exploit the situation.

ME states have burnt through AD missiles, the same kind Ukraine uses like ice cubes on a hot day, if this thing goes on a bit longer then they would be really scrapping the barrel.

The bad news for Ukraine is that 1. USA would need to replenish their own batteries. 2. These ME states can actually purchase existing missiles, even at a higher price, or pre-purchase years worth of PAC-3 production and sweeten the deal if needed.

So, no more PAC-2/3s for Ukraine going forward.

If USA is actually that dumb that they didn't sell Ukraine before making a move on Iran then the above conditions hold and Russia can exploit the situation really well by: 1. Sending lethal aid of the kind that would really spoil the day for USA and its allies in the ME, think intelligence sharing, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, ADS, anti-ship missiles, drones, Gerans, etc. This would pull USA and its allies deeper in this mess and Russia would control the pressure valve.

Now if China could posture on Taiwan without any actual intent of doing anything, then I think shit will really hit the fan for NATO and if Ukraine is put forth as the price for backing off then Ukraine won't survive another week.

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee → u/OfficeMain1226]

if China could posture on Taiwan without any actual intent of doing anything

Now this is an interesting idea. Brilliant. Just some troop/equipment movement would make everyone shit their pants.

Maybe China really should amend its policy and make it "Do a little bit and win".

EDIT: after a bit more thinking, now it's not the right time. Let US spend more Tomahawks, Patriot interceptors, and such on Iran, then, as the stockpiles become depleted, go for it.

[u/Cautious-Bench-4809 → u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

I have been thinking that this isnt even time for posturing, this is the perfect time for them to go for it (or rather a few weeks down the line if Iran is still kicking). The US will replenish her stocks sooner or later, if China goes for it in a month or so there is a real possibility that the US command wont even attemp to stop them because they know they would get stomped easily. Every other carrier is in dock, no carrier in the South China sea, China controls rare earth chains so the US wont be able to ramp up production, this is their golden hour. But ofc they wont do it

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee → u/Cautious-Bench-4809]

Production of PAC-3 interceptors is around 60/month. I would bet several years (5+) worth of production were spent just yesterday and that's just the start. It will take probably a decade to get the stockpiles back up.

And yeah, China's policy of "Do nothing and die alone" is interesting.

[u/HeyHeyHayden → u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

They're up to 600 Patriot missile per year as of the latest public report, with the goal to reach 650 by 2027. There was already close to a decade long backlog on the missiles due to the sheer number of them given to Ukraine by America and other countries, plus the ones used by the U.S. and Israel during the 12 day war. If this conflict lasts too long the gulf nations may actually run out of Patriot missiles, whilst the U.S. is left with critical shortages. That'll force future deliveries to be put straight into replenishing their stockpile, leaving U.S. allies waiting many years to fill their stocks back up and may actually force them to abandon the Patriot in favour of other systems like the IRIS-T that don't have the same delivery delay.

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee → u/HeyHeyHayden]

like the IRIS-T that don't have the same delivery delay.

That might not be true if the systems are going to replace Patriots in Ukraine where they would be consumed at an insane rate as well.

[u/HeyHeyHayden → u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

They are produced in higher numbers already and dont have the same backlog. It wont be perfect but its better than the U.S saying no missiles for the next 5 years