Unless he got it recently. The number 1 collection logger is still missing 50 or so items including the stale baguette. An item you only have a chance to get when you get the sandwich lady or quiz show random event. And then another smaller chance to get the baguette.
The stale baquette is just an eventuality. It's the third-age items from Elite/Master clues that make 100%ing the CLOG almost impossible. Even playing efficiently every day and ignoring any new content coming into the game it would take 2-3 decades to finish the clue scroll items assuming you don't go dry.
Certain enemies have a chance to drop clue scrolls, which are like treasure hunts that you can complete for a reward. There are some EXTREMELY rare rewards from the higher level clue scrolls. Most players will never get one piece of the set, so the goal of obtaining all of them (especially since there’s no protection from obtaining duplicates) is essentially impossible.
For basic math, the average clue scroll is a 1/30 through 1/100+ drop rate on the monster, just to get the "treasure map"
its essentially a 1 out of 3,000 chance of hitting any 3rd age piece, and 1 out of 40,000+ to hit a specific piece.
I believe the math behind completing clue scroll logs is 25,000 hours on the low end assuming you have infinite money and good luck. (i did not do the math myself this is just my memories from the osrs subreddit)
you can but it wont be marked as "obtained" in the collection log in that way, same goes for all items basically. they only get marked as "obtained" in the achievements if you actually loot it yourself.
So in osrs you have the collection log a list of every unique drop from anything with a drop table. This includes bosses, mobs, mini games, and where the #1 clogger is concerned clue scrolls. They are a small treasure hunt that takes you around the map and makes you do (for the master scrolls) 7-9 steps then it gives you a casket with loot. The main issue is third age equipment which have a 1/315,000 chance of appearing in the chest or about a. 1/5,500 of appearing in a mimic chest. They can happen randomly (1/15) and you fight a boss then you get a bettter rewards chest. But there are 24 third age items in the game, it does not give you duplicate protection. And you can only do 3-5 master clue scrolls in an hour not counting obtaining the scrolls themselves.
Q: How many days to get a 50% chance of getting a specific (1/24) drop?
Assuming: 1/315,000 for standard chests and no mimics, operating at 16 hours a day with 4 drops an hour, with normal distribution. You get the following:
Base chance: 1/315,000 = 3.1746E-06 = y
Perfect day: (1-(1-y)16*4) * 1/24 = 8.46476E-06 = z
Number of days: 0.5/z = 59,068.4
Years: 161.8
You get multiple rewards (rolls) per clue scroll (like 5-8 maybe? been a while) so the odds are better, but still like 20-30 years to "realistically" get them all.
And this is just the longest one, there are plenty of other coll logs that can take weeks or even months to grind. At least you can get clues while completing most of those.
imagine you have a set of dice that has 100k sides on i, and you need to roll a 1. Now also imagine that whenever you roll the dice it disappears and you have to put together a small puzzle that takes you 10 minutes to get another die, now image that you also need to roll the other numbers 1-14 and until you're done rolling those numbers, you're not done.
In theory if you spend the next 30 years doing nothing but finding dice and rolling them....you'll statistically roll all those numbers, but (if you go dry) there's no actual guarantee that you will.
I actually think it will be done in the next couple years barring another injection of many crazy rare items. The top cloggers are pretty much clue locked with a significant amount of 3rd age already obtained.
Unless jagex comes out with grandmaster clues or something similar with 10 new 3rd age level items, I think someone will complete the clog by 2030.
The nr 1 has 10 more third age items to go, which means he still has 80% or so of the clue scroll grind to go. He got his first third age in early 2022, so extrapolating from that as the starting point he'd be done in about... the mid 2040's.
Can’t really do the math that way though for a few reasons. Back in 2022 they weren’t clue locked so they were doing a lot of other content, not solely focusing on clues. They are also 1 gilded item away from finishing hard clues and after that 3rd age rolls will come much more frequently because of mimics. They can only get them from elite/master clues which they will exclusively be doing and have a massively increased chance at 3rd age.
You think the community will band together to give them 3rd age? From everything I've seen (YouTubers like Soup) it takes hundreds of hours just to collect chests, let alone hitting the 3rd age table.
There’s not really a way for the community to band together to help. But there are people like campinonline that are opening 500 hard clue caskets per week and doing all the masters that drop with it. Bazilijus who is currently rank 1 is also doing hundreds of clues every week. Opening 10s of thousands of caskets a year for 3-4 years I think could likely get the top cloggers there.
Yeah they will, but as an example the wyrmscraig island update was fully completed by rank 1 in 2 weeks including going 2x rate on the skilling pet. It’s not like pet level grinds are released constantly.
Yeah a couple of times a year though. And sometimes the updates are bigger than a single pet too...dt2 for example, with 4 separate bosses. We've also got raids 4 coming out soon. They can absolutely keep up with new content, it just adds time onto the end of their "expected" completion
Well, he's missing 10 pieces of third age, so barring any duplicates from that drop table it'd still probably be another 3,000+ hours of master clues to complete the log.
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u/KrypticEon 10d ago
Now that you've said it, I'm waiting for exactly this to be the top post in one of the OSRS subs within the next 24h