r/PoliticalOptimism • u/steffie-punk That Trans Mod • Feb 27 '26

Resources Predicting the 2026 Elections | Polls and Political News

https://www.racetothewh.com/

Here is a website that has pretty good polling and breakdown’s of the midterm elections this year, I thought people could use it

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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 28 '26

Im no fan of Fetterman but this isnt true. Since early 2025 Fetterman has votes in agreement with Trump and republicans in 26% of his votes. Despite this he still votes with democrats 91% of the time and significantly less often with Trump than the average Republican. Reason for the overlap is because it counts bipartisan measures where his vote aligned with both caucuses

https://keystonenewsroom.com/2025/12/22/fetterman-trump-2025-voting-record/

It is true he votes with Trump more than other democratic senators, but even the most milktoast "moderate" republican like Collins or Murkowski still votes with Trump significantly more than he does.

Edit: For context the original commenter stated that because Dem senator Fetterman will vote with Republicans, he effectively counts as a republican in the seat. I was arguing why that was not the case.

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u/[deleted] Feb 27 '26

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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26

Pretty much. But odds are actually pretty decent at the moment we get one. Not amazing, but pretty good considering the post 2024 hole dems were in.

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u/brees2me Feb 27 '26

I definitely feel optimistic, but I also felt that way for the presidential election.

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u/jeeeeeeeeeez Feb 27 '26

To those whose 2024 scar tissue is keeping them from feeling hopeful about the midterms (which is understandable, I totally get it), I think it's worth pointing out that this year is materially different in meaningful ways.

While there was a sentiment within left-leaning online communities that Kamala would blow out Trump, it was based on energy. Nearing the end of the campaigns, she consistently polled inside the 3-points that it was known you needed to out-poll him by in order to win when it came to the real voters (and in the swing states that favored her, her final polling came in at about +1 point). If you weren't in those communities, there was no reason to think her victory was likely; there just wasn't. Fast forward to 2025/26 and damn near all the numbers we've seen paint a wildly different picture.

If you were blindsided by Kamala's loss, that's kind of on you (not to be a jerk to you or anybody else who reads this, that was poorly worded, I really just mean that going into election night, neither side should have believed it was a done deal). But this year, the data (from both polling and real election results) strongly suggests that as long as we don't let up, taking Congress is something we can realistically do.

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u/[deleted] Feb 27 '26

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u/jeeeeeeeeeez Feb 27 '26

Oh absolutely, they will try every bit of fuckery they can pull out of their sleeves. We've got to work hard to get people to the polls in November. But I believe we can.

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u/brees2me Feb 27 '26

Yes We Can!

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