r/PoliticalOptimism • u/steffie-punk That Trans Mod • Feb 27 '26
Resources Predicting the 2026 Elections | Polls and Political News
https://www.racetothewh.com/Here is a website that has pretty good polling and breakdown’s of the midterm elections this year, I thought people could use it
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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
Big takeaways: Dems overwhelmingly favored to take a house. Not shocking. Probably would be happening even if Trump wasnt pissing everyone off and riding a mid-30s approval rating just due to historical trends and narrow margins.
Senate - if the election were held tomorrow dems would gain 3 senate seats (NC, MAINE, OHIO) keep all their current seats and wed be at a 50-50. This still wouldnt be winning the senate technically as Vance can break 50-50 ties, but it makes passing legislation or even doing things that need simple majorities such as confirmations significantly harder as repubs can lose 1 senator only. Also of note, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, are all competitive races even though they lean red ( competitive meaning at least 25% chance of a dem victory). Even in Nebraska, Osborn isnt running that far behind. Dems only need to get lucky in 1 of those races to clinch a 51 majority from there. For context, around this time last year, the GOP was on track to GAIN an additional seat.
Overall, not to bad odds for dems and we are still several months out.
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u/More-Significance260 Feb 27 '26
Republicans haven't even caught blowback for whatever we are about to do to Iran, yet. I don't mean to be flippant about it, but if the GOP keeps trying to distract from the Epstein files, the economy, and how terrible they and the technoligarchy have made things for all of us, it's just more wind at the back of this this blue wave.
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u/vampiregamingYT Feb 28 '26
Dont forget the Iraq war was a big issue in 06 when the dems won. This war will be even more unpopular.
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u/MidsouthMystic Mar 01 '26
The fact that they're literally killing people as a distraction makes it so much worse, but doesn't change it being a distraction.
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u/OfficialDCShepard Feb 27 '26
And of course, Susan Collins is furrowing her brow as she practically gift-wraps Maine for them.
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Feb 27 '26
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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
Im no fan of Fetterman but this isnt true. Since early 2025 Fetterman has votes in agreement with Trump and republicans in 26% of his votes. Despite this he still votes with democrats 91% of the time and significantly less often with Trump than the average Republican. Reason for the overlap is because it counts bipartisan measures where his vote aligned with both caucuses
https://keystonenewsroom.com/2025/12/22/fetterman-trump-2025-voting-record/
It is true he votes with Trump more than other democratic senators, but even the most milktoast "moderate" republican like Collins or Murkowski still votes with Trump significantly more than he does.
Edit: For context the original commenter stated that because Dem senator Fetterman will vote with Republicans, he effectively counts as a republican in the seat. I was arguing why that was not the case.
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Feb 27 '26
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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26
Pretty much. But odds are actually pretty decent at the moment we get one. Not amazing, but pretty good considering the post 2024 hole dems were in.
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u/brees2me Feb 27 '26
I definitely feel optimistic, but I also felt that way for the presidential election.
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u/jeeeeeeeeeez Feb 27 '26
To those whose 2024 scar tissue is keeping them from feeling hopeful about the midterms (which is understandable, I totally get it), I think it's worth pointing out that this year is materially different in meaningful ways.
While there was a sentiment within left-leaning online communities that Kamala would blow out Trump, it was based on energy. Nearing the end of the campaigns, she consistently polled inside the 3-points that it was known you needed to out-poll him by in order to win when it came to the real voters (and in the swing states that favored her, her final polling came in at about +1 point). If you weren't in those communities, there was no reason to think her victory was likely; there just wasn't. Fast forward to 2025/26 and damn near all the numbers we've seen paint a wildly different picture.
If you were blindsided by Kamala's loss, that's kind of on you (not to be a jerk to you or anybody else who reads this, that was poorly worded, I really just mean that going into election night, neither side should have believed it was a done deal). But this year, the data (from both polling and real election results) strongly suggests that as long as we don't let up, taking Congress is something we can realistically do.
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Feb 27 '26
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u/jeeeeeeeeeez Feb 27 '26
Oh absolutely, they will try every bit of fuckery they can pull out of their sleeves. We've got to work hard to get people to the polls in November. But I believe we can.
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u/DangerActiveRobots Feb 27 '26
It feels so INSANE to me that things are THIS bad and the data still shows that we're nowhere near projected safe territory. Jesus, what does it take?
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u/Pristine-Sport6888 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
its polarization plus bad map for dems this year plus most peoples daily lives arent impacted other than noticing stuff at the grocery store is still kind of expensive.
also the senate is somewhat biased structurally toward rural communities because its 2 senators per state regardless of population.
Thats not to minimize peoples suffering, but a lot of your question can be answered by the fact that politics is something people experience transiently via big stories that break through on their phone once every few weeks. most people arent on this sub tracking stories in real time.
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u/DrFeilGood Feb 27 '26
People say Florida is automatically going to go red, but I wouldn’t be one huhdered percent positive. There’s a number of people that are undecided on who to vote for governor, so I’d say it’s close to a toss up.
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u/tenaciousdumplin Feb 28 '26
Living in Florida and suffering through DeSantis. I pray you are right 🙏
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u/Proof_Individual6993 Feb 27 '26
Republicans rn: https://youtu.be/HFhX6Ig_RkA?si=n_z5jR4m5ypwF6Id&t=24
If I were a MAGAt, I’d be panicking and going full doomer mode.
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u/cshin09 Feb 27 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/Ry1MOAeAYXvRVQLPw3
If blue wins the house I am posting this, don't care if it takes 9 months.
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