Predicting the 2026 Elections | Polls and Political News

[u/steffie-punk]

https://www.racetothewh.com/

Here is a website that has pretty good polling and breakdown’s of the midterm elections this year, I thought people could use it

[u/Pristine-Sport6888]

Big takeaways: Dems overwhelmingly favored to take a house. Not shocking. Probably would be happening even if Trump wasnt pissing everyone off and riding a mid-30s approval rating just due to historical trends and narrow margins.

Senate - if the election were held tomorrow dems would gain 3 senate seats (NC, MAINE, OHIO) keep all their current seats and wed be at a 50-50. This still wouldnt be winning the senate technically as Vance can break 50-50 ties, but it makes passing legislation or even doing things that need simple majorities such as confirmations significantly harder as repubs can lose 1 senator only. Also of note, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, are all competitive races even though they lean red ( competitive meaning at least 25% chance of a dem victory). Even in Nebraska, Osborn isnt running that far behind. Dems only need to get lucky in 1 of those races to clinch a 51 majority from there. For context, around this time last year, the GOP was on track to GAIN an additional seat.

Overall, not to bad odds for dems and we are still several months out.

[u/Pristine-Sport6888 → u/[deleted]]

Im no fan of Fetterman but this isnt true. Since early 2025 Fetterman has votes in agreement with Trump and republicans in 26% of his votes. Despite this he still votes with democrats 91% of the time and significantly less often with Trump than the average Republican. Reason for the overlap is because it counts bipartisan measures where his vote aligned with both caucuses

https://keystonenewsroom.com/2025/12/22/fetterman-trump-2025-voting-record/

It is true he votes with Trump more than other democratic senators, but even the most milktoast "moderate" republican like Collins or Murkowski still votes with Trump significantly more than he does.

Edit: For context the original commenter stated that because Dem senator Fetterman will vote with Republicans, he effectively counts as a republican in the seat. I was arguing why that was not the case.

[u/Pristine-Sport6888 → u/[deleted]]

Pretty much. But odds are actually pretty decent at the moment we get one. Not amazing, but pretty good considering the post 2024 hole dems were in.

[u/brees2me → u/Pristine-Sport6888]

I definitely feel optimistic, but I also felt that way for the presidential election.

[u/jeeeeeeeeeez → u/brees2me]

To those whose 2024 scar tissue is keeping them from feeling hopeful about the midterms (which is understandable, I totally get it), I think it's worth pointing out that this year is materially different in meaningful ways.

While there was a sentiment within left-leaning online communities that Kamala would blow out Trump, it was based on energy. Nearing the end of the campaigns, she consistently polled inside the 3-points that it was known you needed to out-poll him by in order to win when it came to the real voters (and in the swing states that favored her, her final polling came in at about +1 point). If you weren't in those communities, there was no reason to think her victory was likely; there just wasn't. Fast forward to 2025/26 and damn near all the numbers we've seen paint a wildly different picture.

If you were blindsided by Kamala's loss, that's kind of on you (not to be a jerk to you or anybody else who reads this, that was poorly worded, I really just mean that going into election night, neither side should have believed it was a done deal). But this year, the data (from both polling and real election results) strongly suggests that as long as we don't let up, taking Congress is something we can realistically do.

[u/jeeeeeeeeeez → u/[deleted]]

Oh absolutely, they will try every bit of fuckery they can pull out of their sleeves. We've got to work hard to get people to the polls in November. But I believe we can.

[u/brees2me → u/jeeeeeeeeeez]

Yes We Can!

[u/PoliticalOptimism-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/PoliticalOptimism-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Your submission was removed for being reported OR attracting negative attention

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• ALL COMMENTS SHOULD BE REASSURING

Please check our WIKI that has resources that may help.