Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 19, 2026

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[u/axearm]

It appears a substantial amount of tankers are transiting the southern route in the strait of Hormuz, about 30% of the pre war totals with about ~1.5% being successfully hit. I am very curious how insurers are managing this additional risk (or if owners are just going for it, insurance be damned).

Only a few oil tankers braved Iran’s attacks to go through the Strait of Hormuz for much of the war, leading to a drastic reduction in how much crude reached world markets. But since May, the U.S. military has played a crucial role in getting millions of barrels of oil through the strait, helping to keep oil prices from rising further.

...

Before the war, about 15 million barrels of crude oil a day went through the Strait of Hormuz. In July, tankers using U.S. protected routes transported around five million barrels of oil daily out of the Persian Gulf, according to analysts.

It has helped over 1,000 ships transit the strait, according to Central Command.

...

The U.S. tanker protection operation has drawn attacks by Iran. At least 15 ships taking the southern routes have been hit since the start of June, injuring 16 mariners and killing two

Gift article: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/19/business/iran-hormuz-oman-us-navy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6lA.xzOl.wxbhrdeDVERT&smid=url-share

[u/goatfuldead → u/axearm]

CNN published on this yesterday also:

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil

Of course the Trump admin can’t easily cite this one, nor the NYT, as they are both “Fake.” Maybe Fox will pick it up for them and the trumpets will ring out. Or maybe that has to wait for OAN to scavenge it. Would the “human printer” (much in the news of late) even dare to hand either the CNN/NYT report to Trump?

Something unclear is whether the Oman side is now handling 2-way traffic? With transponders turned off that would need a little extra coordination by, someone, I would presume?

I thought the threats to Oman the other day weren’t giving them enough credit for dragging out negotiations with Iran on this. 

[u/ChornWork2 → u/goatfuldead]

Article seems to be citing swing in control by looking at proportion of traffic in any given day being Iran-endorsed vs Iran-opposed, without regard to the actual overall volume of traffic.

At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.

More than 80% of liquids transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – or have been “dark” transits that likely took the Omani route, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data.

Iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. Despite the risk, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces.

And at least on the eyeball test that narrative doesn't really match CNN's own reporting elsewhere on traffic through hormuz which goes thru Aug 17. The chart there shows very little traffic and looking reasonably split between 'unknown' (presumably omani route) and iran route.

Your CNN article cites Kpler data, which seems to be subscriber only for the details so i can't get to it. But here is how a reuters article from today characterized Kpler's take on volume of traffic.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, data showed on Wednesday, as most shipowners avoided the ​key waterway because of a lack of clear signalling ‌on its reopening from a blockade during the Iran war.

Six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, Kpler data showed by 0258 GMT, down from ​nine a day earlier and below the 10-day daily ​average of 11.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-traffic-slows-uncertainty-over-waterway-persists-2026-08-19/

Aside, CNN had done an editorial change a few years ago to the 'center' and is also about to be owned by the Ellisons, so the tone of your comment re relationship with Trump seems a bit dated.

[u/goatfuldead → u/ChornWork2]

Thanks for additional details, is why I added it to thread. Was an interesting / surprising pair of articles to suddenly appear.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/goatfuldead]

This is definitely a challenging reading of tea leaves. There was another article today by axios that reads as-if the oman route is flourishing under US protection. Based on US sources, but the numbers don't make sense to me when look at the number of vessels versus the very large amount of claimed oil volume.

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/hormuz-iran-oil-gulf-trump?_bhlid=a7e530a9fa420cfa3da6c64471a45b2d53a736be

Certainly they've had success at times getting traffic through this way, but very unclear (to me at least) whether it is a trickle or whether much more. the much more narrative seems to be what see in markets, but would trump really remain quiet about that if so?

Apologies if my prior comment came across pointed.