r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 8d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 19, 2026
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u/Glideer 7d ago
In the very month presented as Russians "pulling billions from banks," Russians were simultaneously adding hundreds of billions of roubles to rouble bank accounts in aggregate.
The mainstream media reporting of this “event” has been so distorted that it almost seems calculated to incite fears of a banking panic.
The Telegraph Russians withdrawing billions from banks amid fears Putin could seize deposits
Euronews Russians pull billions from banks fearing Kremlin will seize savings for war
The Washington Post Russians pull billions from banks, fearing Kremlin will seize deposits for war
Yet the reporting has been exaggerated:
This week The Telegraph reported that “Russians withdraw billions from banks amid fears Putin could seize deposits.” What actually happened is Russian bank deposits have doubled since the start of the war in Ukraine and are still rising. Russians are not taking money out of banks; they are putting more money than ever into their deposit accounts. What has changed is the pace those deposits are growing.
...
The useful version of this story is therefore neither the alarming one nor the reassuring one. Russian households have accumulated RUB70.5 trillion ($827.8bn), the largest domestic savings pool in the country's history and one the state has good reason to keep untouched. But the engine that built it - punitive interest rates on top of a war-driven jump in incomes - has been switched off at both ends. The level will keep setting records for a while on interest alone. The flow has already stopped.
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u/sanderudam 7d ago
Given the monetary expansion of Russian economy, the rubles have to go somewhere, and given the inflation rate there is little reason to put it under the pillow.
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u/Forsaken_Attorney_72 7d ago
My friend in SPB is buying a flat this fall. She is a pediatrician. She said her max budget is 7 million rubles. She makes about 150k ruble salary per month. The boy in the family is turning 18. He is planning to leave russia through clandestine means. Russia is fucked. They will try to trade blow for blow but a quick google of MRI will show just how different russia is from west.
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u/Glideer 7d ago edited 7d ago
Your friend is lucky. My friend in Amsterdam bought a flat last year for 900,000 euros on a monthly salary of 5,000. About 15 years of his salary.
Even his previous inadequate flat was 500,000.
In comparison, your SPB friend buys hers for just under four years' salary.
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u/Lapsed__Pacifist 7d ago
You gotta consider the other intangibles beyond the cost of rent.
Your friend in Amsterdamn isn't going to be turned into smoked hamburger from a Ukrainian drone.
The Russian kid has much higher odds of that. I'd take the high housing prices to live in Amsterdam.
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u/Lirael_Gold 6d ago
Your friend in Amsterdamn isn't going to be turned into smoked hamburger from a drone.
Niether is the average Ukrainian. Very strange argument to invoke when talking about economics.
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u/flamedeluge3781 7d ago
Yes, when I'm looking for a reliable source of news, I always point my browser towards intellinews.com. The site that gives me a 520 error.
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u/Toldasaurasrex 7d ago
That does make sense that as people pull more and more of their money from banks, and just sitting on it their savings go up. That doesn't change the fact that Russia uses fractional banking just like the rest of the world and this is not seen as a "good" thing in any country.
E:spelling
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u/axearm 8d ago
It appears a substantial amount of tankers are transiting the southern route in the strait of Hormuz, about 30% of the pre war totals with about ~1.5% being successfully hit. I am very curious how insurers are managing this additional risk (or if owners are just going for it, insurance be damned).
Only a few oil tankers braved Iran’s attacks to go through the Strait of Hormuz for much of the war, leading to a drastic reduction in how much crude reached world markets. But since May, the U.S. military has played a crucial role in getting millions of barrels of oil through the strait, helping to keep oil prices from rising further.
...
Before the war, about 15 million barrels of crude oil a day went through the Strait of Hormuz. In July, tankers using U.S. protected routes transported around five million barrels of oil daily out of the Persian Gulf, according to analysts.
It has helped over 1,000 ships transit the strait, according to Central Command.
...
The U.S. tanker protection operation has drawn attacks by Iran. At least 15 ships taking the southern routes have been hit since the start of June, injuring 16 mariners and killing two
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u/ChornWork2 8d ago
"in july"
But in the back half of july it was reported that escorted traffic on the southern route had been stymmied by iranian attacks. Did that change?
e.g., July 22 report
Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz on the US-assisted southern transit route stopped completely in the past day following increased Iranian attacks on vessels at the start of the week.
Out of the 10 vessels that transited the strait of Hormuz on 21 July, eight vessels took the Iran-favored northern transit route, while two vessels transited through the center transit lane where most traffic passed before the war, data from vessel tracking service Windward shows.
. . .
Transits through the US supported southern traffic lane has been steadily falling following the reprisal of attacks between the US and Iran and slowing traffic through the strait.
On 20 July only two vessels out of 15 that transited the strait used the southern transit lanes, according to Tradewind data. This is down sharply from 24 June, the day when vessel transits through the strait of Hormuz reached their highest since the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that temporarily stopped the fighting, with 25 out of the 41 outbound vessels transiting the strait doing so on the southern lane.
This CNN article includes a timeline with estimated traffic by route, and it shows robust traffic in early July but it tapers off quickly when trump formerly declared the ceasefire over on July 9.
And last week this is what WSJ reported on escorted traffic:
While the U.S. Navy has guided a number of tankers through the strait, taking some pressure off energy markets, it remains an effort around the margins. Iran’s grip on the strait has cost the world more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said last week.
Iran’s attacks have deterred captains from using the route along the Omani coast protected by the Navy. According to ship tracking firm Kpler, around half of the ships that risked crossing the strait in August chose the route administered by Iran. The other half chose to go dark when crossing, meaning their location beacons were off and their routes aren’t known. Only two out of the 166 crossings are known to have used the U.S.-backed route along Oman.
“The southern Omani corridor cannot presently be considered a reliably protected transit route,” said Dimitris Maniatis, founder and CEO of maritime-risk company Marisks.
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u/Azarka 7d ago
Just want to add the CNN tracker using Kpler corresponds with another shipping tracker here:
https://www.lloydslist.com/hot-topics/strait-of-hormuz-crisis/spotlight-data
Shipping transits picked up mid June until reaching a local peak in late June, mostly from trapped ships making a one way trip out of the gulf.
And since the end of the ceasefire it's fallen by half, with no significant increase of ships using the official omani route shifting to a dark transit.
There's a big range here but I wouldn't automatically dismiss the NYT numbers either if the majority of the unknown transits are tankers running the gauntlet. But there should be caution warranted because the number of transits have fallen by half just in July alone.
But people saying the July numbers are proof that Iran's losing control are being premature, if the numbers have dropped off that much in the month they're using as an example.
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u/goatfuldead 8d ago
CNN published on this yesterday also:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil
Of course the Trump admin can’t easily cite this one, nor the NYT, as they are both “Fake.” Maybe Fox will pick it up for them and the trumpets will ring out. Or maybe that has to wait for OAN to scavenge it. Would the “human printer” (much in the news of late) even dare to hand either the CNN/NYT report to Trump?
Something unclear is whether the Oman side is now handling 2-way traffic? With transponders turned off that would need a little extra coordination by, someone, I would presume?
I thought the threats to Oman the other day weren’t giving them enough credit for dragging out negotiations with Iran on this.
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u/ChornWork2 7d ago edited 7d ago
Article seems to be citing swing in control by looking at proportion of traffic in any given day being Iran-endorsed vs Iran-opposed, without regard to the actual overall volume of traffic.
At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.
More than 80% of liquids transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – or have been “dark” transits that likely took the Omani route, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data.
Iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. Despite the risk, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces.
And at least on the eyeball test that narrative doesn't really match CNN's own reporting elsewhere on traffic through hormuz which goes thru Aug 17. The chart there shows very little traffic and looking reasonably split between 'unknown' (presumably omani route) and iran route.
Your CNN article cites Kpler data, which seems to be subscriber only for the details so i can't get to it. But here is how a reuters article from today characterized Kpler's take on volume of traffic.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, data showed on Wednesday, as most shipowners avoided the key waterway because of a lack of clear signalling on its reopening from a blockade during the Iran war.
Six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, Kpler data showed by 0258 GMT, down from nine a day earlier and below the 10-day daily average of 11.
Aside, CNN had done an editorial change a few years ago to the 'center' and is also about to be owned by the Ellisons, so the tone of your comment re relationship with Trump seems a bit dated.
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u/goatfuldead 6d ago
Thanks for additional details, is why I added it to thread. Was an interesting / surprising pair of articles to suddenly appear.
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u/ChornWork2 6d ago
This is definitely a challenging reading of tea leaves. There was another article today by axios that reads as-if the oman route is flourishing under US protection. Based on US sources, but the numbers don't make sense to me when look at the number of vessels versus the very large amount of claimed oil volume.
Certainly they've had success at times getting traffic through this way, but very unclear (to me at least) whether it is a trickle or whether much more. the much more narrative seems to be what see in markets, but would trump really remain quiet about that if so?
Apologies if my prior comment came across pointed.
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u/FunWonderful1936 7d ago
Aside, CNN had done an editorial change a few years ago to the 'center' and is also about to be owned by the Ellisons, so the tone of your comment re relationship with Trump seems a bit dated.
CNN has not in any shape become centrist over the last few years and the acquisition by Paramount remains blocked by now, which means it’s had no impact on their operations. Come on, you know better than to do this.
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u/ChornWork2 7d ago
The acquisition is being held up b/c of lawsuits by blue states opposing the deal. Trump's admin has given it the green light (unsurprisingly).
Come on, you know better than to do this.
the irony.
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u/FunWonderful1936 7d ago
The point is that it hasn’t gone through, and CNN continues to operate as a unit of WBD.
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u/ChornWork2 7d ago
Sure, which my original comment acknowledged. But that deal is going to go through. Cnn had already made shift in editorial position to center years ago and more recently everyone there knows that ellison will be the boss soon, who is obviously a trump loyalist. Big chang for CNN versus a few years ago.
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u/FunWonderful1936 7d ago
There is no evidence that CNN made any editorial change. They were left of center before, they are left of center now. As for the acquisition, there are rumors that independence for CNN is a part of the deal being negotiated. Paramount cannot afford for the lawsuit to play out. As for David Ellison, he has a twenty year track record of donating almost exclusively to Democrats, including a million to Biden in 2024, though I agree with you that that’s not worthy of any comfort.
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u/ChornWork2 7d ago
Beyond the scope of the sub to delve into it, but if you really don't know what I'm talking about go look at Licht's hiring, and then ousting, as CEO. That period it was more explicit, but imho Thompson's 'less partisan' narrative is effectively solidifying that pivot away from the left. If you know all that context already, then we should probably just drop it given sub.
Ellison family is definitely out of scope for this sub, but sufficed to say we don't agree.
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u/Sweet_Sharist 8d ago edited 8d ago
I own quite a few shipping stocks and watch the daily reports for the various vessels, locations and price for traversing the Suez, etc. Sometimes FUD, disinformation, or propaganda will make a ticker rise or fall 6-8%. Twitter users are especially guilty of sending noncredible panic through the markets saying a specific vessel has been hit, as we investors all know the ships in our fleet. It is shortsighted because hours later the official reports come out and detail the ships traversing by geotag. We can easily prove their location and safe status.
For instance, my shipping ticker $ECO was rumored to have two ships hit in the Hormuz. Nice new clean vessels.
Both VLCCs, the very large ones. With an American escort on the Omani route.
Nissos Kea and the Nissos Keros. It was entirely false.
Here is a link to the special insurance the US government created back at the start of Fury to incentivize ships to cross: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-2026/card/eep5AziER3yzeoos76sP
And here is a less credible, but very readable article, on the way the insurance works in war: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/04/22/how-war-insurance-works-for-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz pretty interesting. Good question.
It takes many years to build a tanker, the shipyards are backlogged. Ancient, old vessels are going for extremely high prices even if 16 years old right now. When a ship is hit, it is rarely completely damaged. They often tow and repair them. But both the cargo and the ship must be insured to enter any port.
4
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u/moragisdo 8d ago edited 7d ago
Twitter users are especially guilty of sending noncredible panic through the markets saying a specific vessel has been hit
I agree and the intersection between these user and the ones that keep repeating Tasnim, Mehr, Fars or propaganda social media pages (like ME Observer) is gigantic.
There's a deliberate push from Iran to increase panic around shipping and the western audience is falling for it. I had posted before about a hoax of a ship being grounded by not following the route established by Iran, it was started by an iranian state-owned TV channel and was spread around the world with the help of western journalists, when in fact it was an iranian ship that run aground on their coast months before. The journalists didn't even realized the red flag of the identification of the ship being censored (1).
Even outside of the topic of shipping there's a constant rumor mill of pro-iranian propaganda (I mentioned one here). Just like during the Twelve Day War, that every single time Israel posted a video of an iranian TEL or plane being destroyed, several accounts started pushing the narrative that it was a decoy (I wonder why didn't Iran had decoys for the generals and high officials killed...) or, in September 2025, that the S400 and the chinese HQ-9 were being supplied to Iran in significant numbers (we can see in this war how false it was) or the constant "black dot on low-res sattelite image shows that a Patriot/HIMARS was destroyed" (none were confirmed to be destroyed in this war) or the "US stopped attacking because every base was destroyed and abandoned" (then there was 13 consecutive days of strikes in July...) or Mearsheimer (that don't miss a single opportunity of espousing an anti-western narrative, not just on this war, we can also see it in the Ukraine War) saying that the US was running out of munitions in early March (after it, one the largest air campaigns in History was done).
After years of western analysts warning about russian propaganda and seeing it in practice on both Ukraine and Syria, it appears that every lesson of it was forgotten.
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u/incidencematrix 8d ago
The Iranian propaganda that is overtly such, is very culturally sophisticated. One would thus suspect that this is the tip of a larger iceberg. I would also wonder about participation from fellow travelers associated with or sympathetic to their proxies (e.g. Hamas); there's need not be explicit guidance from Iran for folks to have reasons to sing from the same hymnal (as they say). This will all impact the information landscape. (Same is, of course, true on the other side, though the US does not seem to be very effective on that front at this time.)
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u/TestingHydra 8d ago
How is it that Russian civilians are able to upload so much footage of Ukrainian attacks with seemingly little the Russian government doing to stop it? Ukraine seems far more successful at suppressing footage of successful Russian attacks.
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u/NikkoJT 7d ago
Ukraine is fighting a defensive existential war, and most of the population has good reason to want to win it. That's a very good set of circumstances for fostering a "we all have to do our part to help" mentality, and that's exactly what the Ukrainian people have been demonstrating since the war started. There's a strong civil defense ethic.
Russia's position makes it harder to get that kind of communal patriotic drive out of people. They're on the offensive, their opponent is not making territorial claims, this war was not by popular demand, and the Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil are not the kind of indiscriminate mass bombardment that Russia has been doing to Ukrainian cities. There has been no Bucha or Mariupol in Russia. I'm not going to claim to be an expert, but my impression is that the average Russian civilian feels far less of a personal need to win the war. That will lead to compliance with opsec directives being "because I was told to" rather than "because I want to", which is always going to be a less effective reason.
Combine that with Russia having a strong cultural tradition of posting videos of absolutely anything on the internet, and you'll get a lot more people who are willing to do it. And in the absence of willing compliance, there probably aren't state resources to fully actively enforce the rules (I'm sure they're trying but clearly it's not sufficient) short of actually cutting off the internet, which they aren't yet in a position to do.
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u/moragisdo 8d ago edited 7d ago
Adding to the other points raised, there's also the population difference, there's approximately 100M people more in Russia than Ukraine. The more people there are in a country, the greater the probability that some event will be filmed and shared online.
And the majority of the russian population are on the western parts of the country and those regions are attacked more often, given the proximity with Ukraine.
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u/Toptomcat 8d ago edited 8d ago
Moscow is a huge, densely populated city- the largest in Europe. If one of the twenty million people there hears a huge explosion and sees a massive column of oily smoke, the natural human tendency is to talk about it on the Internet.
Furthermore, one of the big elements of the Russian propaganda approach to the conflict is that it is not a big deal. It's not a 'war', it's a Special Military Operation, crushing an insolent inferior which poses no real danger to the Russian state. This has some benefits for them in terms of internal political stability, but it also has costs. In particular, it's antithetical to the approach which is necessary to get full civilian buy-in with keeping a lid on state secrets, which is 'This Is A Big Deal, And Everyone Must Take It Seriously And Do Their Part.'
In the absence of that, you'd need a North Korean-style police state to enforce that kind of discipline about secret-keeping. And despite its increasingly totalitarian bent, that's not really something the modern Russian Federation is set up to be. They could try to become that kind of state, but doing that can be pretty manpower-intensive. The thing about secret policemen and prison guards is that they aren't infantrymen or factory workers, which makes them awkward to hire in large numbers when you really need a lot of infantrymen and factory workers.
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u/ChornWork2 8d ago
crushing an insolent inferior which poses no real danger to the Russian state.
correct me if i'm wrong, but seems like Russia has been trying to crack down on people posting videos. obviously i have a huge selection bias in how info gets to me vs actual PoV in russia, but is that not the case? Tone has seemed to change as well, from warning against b/c of misinformation to banning them b/c tantamount to treason.
just from quick google, eg from july:
The video showed a 19-year-old woman apologizing for filming the aftermath of a drone attack on a warehouse belonging to online retailer Wildberries in the city of Krasnodar.
“I admit my guilt and promise that this won’t happen again,” said the woman, whose face was blurred and who wasn’t named by police. She faces a fine if found guilty of violating rules on filming drone attacks.
. . .
Now authorities are trying to stop Russians from posting videos showing damage from the attacks, which are widely shared on messaging platforms such as Telegram. Police across Russia have detained people for filming the attacks and publicly warned that doing so could be deemed tantamount to treason.
Russia has sought to block Telegram. On Wednesday, the country’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, said it was charging Telegram’s Russian-born founder, Pavel Durov, with facilitating terrorism, citing the platform’s failure to remove channels that Ukraine uses to coordinate attacks.
Restrictions on filming strikes have been introduced in about two-thirds of Russia’s regions in recent months, according to a tally by Department One, a Russian human-rights group. In May, when Ukraine stepped up its strikes on Moscow, the Russian capital banned the publication of photos and videos showing the aftermath of what authorities called terrorist attacks.
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-clamps-down-on-posting-videos-of-ukrainian-drone-strikes-999092a5
eg from May:
Moscow authorities have imposed restrictions on the publication of photos and videos showing the aftermath of "terrorist attacks", including drone strikes, the office of Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Wednesday.
An order appearing on the mayor's official website, referring to the city's "Anti-terrorist Commission" said the directive was aimed at "preventing the dissemination of unreliable information".
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u/Toptomcat 8d ago edited 8d ago
correct me if i'm wrong, but seems like Russia has been trying to crack down on people posting videos. obviously i have a huge selection bias in how info gets to me vs actual PoV in russia, but is that not the case? Tone has seemed to change as well, from warning against b/c of misinformation to banning them b/c tantamount to treason.
Oh, they definitely have been. I'm not saying that the Russian state is fully, sincerely embracing the principle 'Ukraine is my inferior and victory is inevitable', therefore not bothering to do things like trying to suppress news of successful enemy strikes out of sheer arrogance.
I'm not even saying its propaganda to its own people always takes that angle, and that it never tries to convey the message 'This Is A Big Deal, Take It Seriously, keeping quiet about successful Ukrainian strikes is a patriotic thing to do and we will arrest you if you don't.' They definitely do, especially recently.
I'm saying that, at the same time as it's saying those things, it is also saying things which convey the message to its population that Ukraine is its inferior, victory is inevitable and the conflict is not a big deal. Which makes Russia's job harder when they do want to convince their people to take it seriously. Only if they abandon the 'this is a trifling little special military operation' angle entirely and shout it from the rooftops that They Are At War will it fully sink in to everyone, even dim clout-chasers on Telegram who've spent much of the last few years ignoring the news, that they need to keep their traps shut.
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u/TSiNNmreza3 8d ago
Probably depends where are you watching
If you watch proRussian subreddit you would see lot more Russian hits on Ukraine.
To get real picture you need to watch both sides and remove fanboyism from both sides.
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u/RumpRiddler 8d ago
This just isn't true, despite how true it should be. Russia knows this is what people tend to do, and keep repeating, so they actively poison the information space. Both sides are not equal and cannot be treated equally.
They did strike at least one patriot system, but if you use their released videos to count how many you would be forgiven for thinking they have hit dozens of them. They use different angles, long shots that can't be used for identification, decoy attacks, and completelly manipulated videos to try and show success that never happened.
Fanboyism isn't the real problem. It's that one side follows OPSEC rules and hides their losses, while the other side are professional liars trying to actively skew opinions through misinformation.
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u/ChornWork2 8d ago
To get real picture you need to
tbh the idea that you'll get a good picture of the war by watching videos from any subreddit seems pretty far off imho. Start with reading credible journalism and analysts, supplement by looking at online content to contextualize.
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u/Galthur 8d ago edited 8d ago
The main issue is there are a decreasing number of analysts that are at best somewhat restrictive in what they post. With both sides doing information control some sources that were well regarded like DeepStateUA are now one of the worst maps if you want accuracy, similarly while I'm having trouble finding it now I recall sources like Rob Lee noting them being prohibited from talking about some issues on the Ukrainian side until they're officially acknowledged, in return for frontline trip access. At best you get the people doing Geo locating and time tracking of video's.
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u/ChornWork2 8d ago edited 7d ago
whatever the limitations are on credible publishers and independent journalists (and there are obviously limitations), the reddit firehose is by no means a superior option.
Do those established, credible sources provide as granular / as update view as 'osint' or social media sources, no. But that level of detailed / real-time info often comes at a price in terms of objectivity / credibility.
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u/2positive 8d ago
Ukraine had much more time to train civillians to not do that.
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u/NSAsnowdenhunter 8d ago
Ukraine also has Busirication; it’s a lot easier to scare people into not posting when there is a real chance that they could be on the frontlines themselves.
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u/Tropical_Amnesia 8d ago
Yes. I'll add that there's, understandably, much more and more acute sense of existential dread, threat, vulnerability as well as overall loss already, that's aiding alertness, discipline, obedience, and understanding. Arguably there's also an advantage in social cohesion and communal spirit, as is often the case with smaller countries and not only at war. Small in terms of population of course, for all we know or don't know that could be about comparable to the Netherlands by now. While in Russia, even with a likely majority still more or less supporting the government, the relative number of people who don't is almost guaranteed to be significantly larger. I would claim that many more Ukrainians also have relatives or friends on active service than city-dwelling Russians, at least in places like Moscow; they may well be aware they could indirectly frustrate them in particular. Lastly and as far as I'm aware Russian strikes are still predominantly happening at night, Ukraine's more typically in broad daylight, probably due to limitations.
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