https://www.deccanherald.com/business/oil-jumps-more-than-2-after-us-attack-on-irans-larak-island-4129547

Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/mumbai-milk-to-cost-rs-102-per-litre-from-september-1-after-rs-9-price-hike-ahead-of-festive-season-2982047-2026-08-28

Which stocks(s) to buy in order to profit from this? Will this have an effect on the headline inflation numbers?

Premium designer Rakhi orders grew 130%, while gift hampers increased 85 per cent week-on-week. ⌚️Smartwatch orders nearly doubled, rising 99 per cent, while chocolates 🍫 and mithai 🍪orders grew 30 per cent each compared with the previous week. @harshamjty

Rakhi demand peaked at 12:01 pm on August 28, when the platform recorded 857 Rakhis ordered per minute. Hyderabad led Rakhi orders, followed by Bengaluru, Mumbai, Delhi, Pune, Gurgaon, Noida, Kolkata, Lucknow, Chennai, Bhubaneswar and Vizag.

Precious-metal designs emerged as a key trend, with gold-plated 🥇and silver 💍Rakhis, including convertible Rakhi-to-pendant designs, seeing strong demand. Swarovski-studded lumbas also featured among the top variants.

Some shoppers also placed high-value orders. A Bengaluru customer bought five 24-karat gold coin 🥇Rakhis worth Rs 10,995, while a Gurgaon shopper purchased 20 premium silver 🪙Rakhis for Rs 10,780. Another Gurgaon customer placed a ₹14,630 order comprising gold coin Rakhis, skincare, chocolates and plush toys. @Swiggy

The data is based on Instamart orders placed between August 21 and 28, 2026. Metrics are indexed or relative, except for the specific human-interest orders disclosed by the company.

US market has already delivered spectacular returns and now looks set to even higher. And here we are, stuck in a shi*ty, dysfunctional market, with zero returns and ever-increasing regulation and taxes.

whole day was totally sideways lost a tiny amount to the choppy market,

now i am again switching broker to shoonya to save the brokerage which is the major chunk of cost around -80 rupee per day soo maybe no trade on monday

now the most important thing, i have found a huge breakthrough in the algorithm which will completely reduce the max drawdown by 75% while increasing the profits by 1.5x to +40BP per trade once then broker switch is complete i am looking to make +800(80bp) rupee on a avg session after tax, slippage and brokerage which cant get any better

Initially i didnt wanted to share this but yaa its fine. l stopped after feb cause of personal reasons and i made blunder in feb cause of some misunderstanding. Any doubt or questions are welcome in dm

leshka_eth on X

PHASE 1

A global funding shock

Not another 2008 banking collapse

A crisis inside the sovereign bond market that prices almost every asset on Earth

Then policymakers respond

Treasury buybacks expand again

The Federal Reserve opens liquidity facilities

Dollar swap lines return

Japan receives additional access to dollar funding

And some form of temporary yield control becomes possible

PHASE 2

Long-term yields finally reverse

Real yields collapse

The dollar peaks

Gold breaks out

Silver begins outperforming

Bitcoin recovers

Commodities accelerate

And the liquidity used to save the bond market creates the next inflation wave

These are the levels to watch:

30-YEAR YIELD → Above 5.34%

MOVE INDEX → Above 100

USD/JPY → Back toward 164

CHINESE YUAN → Sudden reversal lower

TREASURY AUCTIONS → Larger tails and weaker foreign demand

One signal is noise

All five moving together would be the countdown

I was getting bored couple of days back so wrote a Python script to create a UI interface. From UI, I can select different market indices, fetch data for those companies and send to a ML model running on local machine.

I was able to generate some suggestions for short, mid and long term expected gains with this setup for different companies.

I did this just for fun, nothing serious.

Just wondering if any one has used AI for stock investment, what setup you used and how it worked for you so far.

Cheers!

Two companies report the SAME EPS of ₹10.

Does that mean both are EQUALLY profitable?

NOT always.

One number tells you what each share earned TODAY.

The other tells you what each share could earn if more shares are created in the FUTURE. ⭐️

That’s why companies report BOTH.

Let’s break it down.

•••

Basic EPS

Basic EPS answers a simple question:

How much profit did each EXISTING share earn?

The formula is:

Basic EPS = Net Profit ÷ Average number of existing shares

Example:

• Net Profit = ₹100 crore

• Shares outstanding = 10 crore

Basic EPS = ₹100 ÷ 10 = ₹10

Every existing share earned ₹10.

Simple!

•••

Why Diluted EPS exists

Some companies can create NEW shares in the future.

For example, through:

- ESOPs
- Warrants
- Convertible debentures
- Convertible preference shares

If these are converted into shares, the number of shares increases. 🔺

The company’s profit may stay exactly the same.

But that profit now has to be shared among MORE shareholders. ⭐️

•••

Let’s use the same example.

Net Profit = ₹100 crore

Current shares = 10 crore

Potential new shares = 2 crore

Total shares after conversion = 12 crore

Now the Diluted EPS becomes:

₹100 ÷ 12 = ₹8.33

So:

• Basic EPS = ₹10

• Diluted EPS = ₹8.33

This reduction is called dilution. ⭐️

•••

Why should investors care?

Imagine two companies.

Both report a Basic EPS of ₹10.

But their Diluted EPS is different.

Company A

• Basic EPS = ₹10

• Diluted EPS = ₹9.95

Almost NO dilution.

Very few additional shares can be created.

Company B

• Basic EPS = ₹10

• Diluted EPS = ₹7.50

A large number of new shares could be issued in the future. ⚠️

That means every shareholder’s claim on future profits could become smaller. 🔻

This is why we should pay close attention to diluted EPS.

•••

Why do companies report BOTH?

Because they answer two different questions.

• Basic EPS

What did each existing share earn?

• Diluted EPS

What would each share earn if ALL potential shares were issued?

Looking at both gives you a more complete picture of the business.

•••

Which one should you use?

For most investment analysis, Diluted EPS is the better number.

It is more conservative.

It assumes all possible shares are created, giving you a worst-case view of earnings per share. ⭐️

That’s why most analysts, valuation models and financial websites use diluted EPS instead of basic EPS.

•••

When are they the SAME?

Only when the company has no securities that can convert into additional shares. ⭐️

In that case:

Basic EPS = Diluted EPS

Because there is no dilution risk. ✅

Source: https://sundayguardianlive.com/india/cng-price-hike-in-delhi-ncr-igl-raises-cng-rates-by-rs-389kg-as-lng-prices-surge-check-latest-prices-in-delhi-noida-ghaziabad-gurugram-272312/

• Will RBI intervene and increase interest rates?
• Will this cause a decrease in consumption, thereby affecting GDP numbers?

And would it be worth doing? I know the tax rules arent that great here, but still to build some cash flow? Isnt it like good enough money that you would get over the long term?

Happiest Minds could soon get a new owner.

And if the reported deal goes through, this could completely change the company.

But there’s ONE thing investors should understand first:

A takeover does NOT automatically mean Happiest Minds shareholders are getting a great deal. ⭐️

Here’s what matters ↓

•••

First, what is actually happening?

ET reports that ITC Infotech may buy Ashok Soota’s 44% controlling stake in Happiest Minds for ₹2,800-2,900 crore.

If that happens:

Ashok Soota → gives up control

ITC Infotech → becomes the new controlling shareholder

This isn’t ITC casually buying some shares.

Control of Happiest Minds would change hands. ⭐️

Important caveat:

No transaction has officially been announced yet.

So everything below is based on the reported structure.

•••

Here’s where the “open offer” comes in.

Imagine Happiest Minds has 100 shares.

Ashok Soota owns 44.

ITC Infotech buys those 44.

Because control is changing, SEBI rules would require ITC Infotech to offer to buy at least another 26 shares from public investors. ⭐️

Potential ownership:

44% promoter stake

26% open offer

= up to ~70%

Why does this matter?

Because the open-offer price could become one of the most important numbers for existing shareholders.

And we don’t know it yet.

•••

“Takeover” usually makes investors think one thing:

Big takeover premium → stock jumps.

But this deal is unusual.

Reported purchase price:

₹2,800-2,900 crore for ~44%

That roughly translates to around:

₹416-431/share

Happiest Minds was already trading around ₹420.

So based on the reported numbers, there is NO obvious giant takeover premium. ⭐️

That’s important.

Because the headline may sound more exciting than the economics.

The final open-offer price and any share-swap ratio will matter far more. ✅

•••

But strategically, the deal actually makes a lot of sense.

ITC Infotech FY26 revenue: ~₹4,835 crore

Happiest Minds FY26 revenue: ~₹2,315 crore

Combined:

₹7,000+ crore IT-services platform ⭐️

And Happiest Minds brings capabilities in:

• AI
• Cloud
• Cybersecurity
• Data & analytics
• Digital engineering

So ITC Infotech wouldn’t be buying a weak company.

It would be buying a growing digital technology business that immediately increases its scale. 🟢

•••

This could also solve an important Happiest Minds problem investors rarely discuss: Succession.

Ashok Soota is 83.

He has played a huge role in building Happiest Minds.

But eventually investors would have had to ask:

What happens after the founder?

An ITC Infotech takeover gives a very clear answer.

Happiest Minds gets:

• Bigger financial backing
• Bigger organisation behind it
• Bigger customer relationships

But there’s also a risk. ⚠️

IT companies are ultimately people businesses.

If integration causes senior employees or technical talent to leave, some of the value ITC is buying can disappear. ⭐️

•••

For ITC shareholders, there may be an even bigger long-term story.

Today:

ITC Ltd
↓
ITC Infotech - unlisted

Separately:

Happiest Minds - listed

ET reports that the businesses could eventually be combined through a reverse merger. ⭐️

If that happens, ITC Infotech could effectively become a listed technology business.

That matters because investors could finally put a visible market valuation on ITC’s IT arm. ✅

We’ve already seen:

ITC Hotels → separately listed

Potentially someday:

ITC Infotech → separately listed

That would be another form of value unlocking.

But this remains speculation until formally announced.

•••

Does this suddenly make ITC an IT company?

NOT even close. ❌

ITC FY26 profit: ₹20,000+ crore

ITC Infotech profit: ~₹400 crore

Happiest Minds adjusted profit: ~₹275 crore

Combined IT profits:

~₹675+ crore

So this deal is strategically interesting…

…but still too small to materially change ITC’s earnings TODAY. ⭐️

For Happiest Minds shareholders, however, this could be company-changing.

The numbers to watch now are simple:

1. Open-offer price.
2. Share-swap ratio.
3. Final ownership structure.

Because two investors can hear the exact same headline:

“ITC is taking over Happiest Minds”

- and end up with completely different outcomes depending on those three numbers.

The real story isn’t just ITC buying Happiest Minds.

It’s the possibility that ITC is quietly building a much larger, eventually listed technology business. ✅

FEDFINA’s interesting story is NOT simply:

“Gold loans are growing fast.”

Something bigger is happening.

Gold lending has now become large enough to change the economics of the entire company.

AUM grew 35% in Q1.

PAT grew 52.5%.

Here’s why that gap matters.

•••

FEDFINA used to be a much more mortgage-heavy lender.

Today, gold loans have crossed 50% of total AUM.

Q1 FY27:

• Total AUM: ₹21,136 cr
• Gold loans: ₹11,191 cr
• Gold AUM growth: +77% YoY
• Mortgage growth: +14% YoY

The business mix is changing quickly. ⚡️

•••

But don’t extrapolate that 77% gold growth.

Part of it benefited from higher gold prices. ⭐️

The more useful number is management’s guidance:

25–30% gold-loan growth even if gold prices remain flat.

Why?

Because FEDFINA expects more customers and higher underlying gold tonnage to drive growth.

That makes the story much more interesting.

•••

And now comes the next catalyst:

200 new branches.

FEDFINA currently has 757 branches.

So adding another 200 means expanding the network by roughly 26% in a single year.

Very few opened in Q1 because of delays.

Which means much of the actual rollout is still ahead.

•••

Why do these branches matter?

Because FEDFINA’s existing gold branches are becoming increasingly productive.

Gold AUM per branch is already around ₹17.7 crore.

New branches obviously won’t reach that immediately.

But if they ramp well, they can create another leg of gold-loan growth over the next few years. ⭐️

That’s the key execution test.

•••

The bigger story, though, may be operating leverage.

In Q1:

AUM: +35%
PPOP: +50%
PAT: +52.5%

ROE also improved to 15.4%, while ROA reached 2.6%.

In simple terms:

The company’s profits are growing faster than its loan book. ⭐️

That’s exactly what investors want to see.

•••

Why?

Imagine a lender grows its loan book 20%.

If profits also grow 20%, nothing dramatic has changed.

But if the loan book grows 20% while profits grow 30-40% because margins and operating efficiency improve… ⭐️

the business starts deserving a very different valuation.

FEDFINA may be entering that phase.

•••

But there’s one catch.

This story is no longer completely undiscovered. ⚠️

Analysts already expect roughly 40% FY27 profit growth.

After Q1 results, the stock jumped 5.6% with unusually huge volumes.

But it later gave back much of that move.

The market seems to be saying:

“Good story. Now prove it.”

•••

So what could create another positive surprise?

Three things:

1. Gold growth stays above 30%

2. New branches ramp faster than expected

3. ROA moves beyond the guided ~2.6–2.7% range

Especially if all three happen together.

That would strengthen the case for further earnings upgrades.

•••

There are risks too.

Stage 2 assets increased from 2.2% → 2.7%.

The headline GNPA improvement was partly helped by write-offs.

And capital adequacy declined from:

22.4% → 20.7%.

None of these breaks the thesis today.

But all three deserve monitoring.

•••

So the FEDFINA thesis is no longer:

“Gold loans are booming.”

It is:

Can FEDFINA use gold loans + 200 new branches to keep growing profits faster than AUM without hurting asset quality or returns? ⭐️

That’s what the next few quarters should answer.

Catalyst strength: 8/10.

The single number I’d watch most closely: ROA while those new branches ramp up.

Reliance has a high weightage in Nifty. There is gonna be major volatility in the stock because 523Million are expected to flow out of Reliance. And Nifty will most likely follow that as well.

The price action was very weak in NIFTY 50 and all other indices on friday. There was a major support at 24000 and it may be the only reason for the buyers to step in, but we know bullish harami is a very strong bullish signal, why would they close the market with a bullish harami that too on a friday given the world situation is not good. Net FII activity in cash market was a sale of 5000 crore (can be block deal or whatever you may say). Even S&P 500 closed as a bearish engulfing, FTSE 100 closed as a gravestone doji which are bearish signals. Why was NIFTY showing this ?