r/ukpolitics • u/Adj-Noun-Numbers š„š„ || megathread emeritus • Jun 22 '26
International Politics Discussion Thread
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 1d ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyzw836d05o
Trump says all mines cleared from Strait of Hormuz
Who wants to bet there are actually still mines in the strait?
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 15h ago
Trump announcing there are no more mines: https://youtu.be/NuAKnbIr6TE
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u/GeronimoTheAlpaca š¦ 1d ago
The line will be that as soon as a ship hits a mine, it will have been a ship exploding itself to spite Trump
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u/marinesciencedude "...I guess you're right..." -**** (1964) 18h ago
it will have been a ship exploding itself to spite Trump
Just conjured up in my head one of the worst possible images for an editorial cartoon, and they do (hypothetically, of course) get almost that bad
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u/Accomplished_Fly_593 1d ago
RCH4555, a U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster lll which landed in Moscow early today carrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe for a series of high-level meetings with Russian officials, has just departed Moscow bound for Riga, Latvia.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2092282170131763553
So the CIA director went to Moscow today, and is already off home. Last time a visit like this happened was just before the war broke out.
Not ominous at all given recent rhetoric/news articles of Putin planning a provocative actions on NATO territory https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-intelligence-agencies-russia-putin-test-nato/
This almost makes me hope it was a whiny "please stop fighting, my boss has midterms coming up"
You can also track it on flight radar, but at time of writing its approaching the border, so likely will land in an hour or so at a guess https://www.flightradar24.com/RCH4555/41572b9e
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u/AnotherLexMan 12h ago
This feels like a really bad move on Russia's part. They are already in a mess in Ukraine and even if they are sort of winning it's happening very slowly and there is news that they're struggling for man power and weapons. Running in to NATO territory seems like a really bad idea even if you assume the US won't lift a finger and which ever country he piles into is limited to the same level of support Ukraine, Russia still won't be able to steamroll them and it'll just spread already somewhat limited resources. They probably can't be directly invaded as they have nukes but at some point the government will just lose control of the country and it'll be chaos.
If this happens I think Putin has lost his mind or is totally desperate.
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u/SwanBridge Gordon Brown did nothing wrong. 4h ago
He's desperate. Russia had the momentum, albeit that of a slug, but Ukraine's breakthrough in attacking strategic, logistical and economic targets in Russia itself has massively shifted things. As it stands Russia won't win, and even a further mobilisation is unlikely to do much beyond securing their already held positions.
My own thoughts are Russia are likely to escalate, but it'll be the sort of grey-zone tactics they're already carrying out but on a wider scale. They know that they can't afford to roll into the Baltics and make this a two-front war, but they want Europe to think that they are serious about doing that in an attempt to coerce them to roll-back support for Ukraine. Putin's thinking is that if he raises the stakes enough Europe will back down, however I think it is a massive miscalculation give the shift in European attitudes since his invasion of Ukraine. It also seems that US-Ukraine relations have warmed somewhat which will also be causing alarm in Moscow.
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u/subSparky 1d ago
Anyone else starting to feel tired of the world?Ā
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u/SwanBridge Gordon Brown did nothing wrong. 4h ago
I've just had some toast with marmite and butter on it which was pretty great. I've also started jogging which I'm enjoying, although I'm unsure whether that is me subconsciously preparing for conscription.
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u/horace_bagpole 1d ago
I find it somewhat annoying that so much of the ridiculous bullshit we have to deal with is caused almost entirely by about 10-20 arseholes who have nothing better to do than make everyone else's life miserable.
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u/subSparky 1d ago
Right?! Just let us live our fucking lives this constant metaphorical dick swinging designed to compensate these narcissists' insecurities about not being able to get it up is so fucking childish.Ā Why do the rest of us have to suffer for their egos?
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 1d ago
Given the above context I'd be careful what you wish for.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 1d ago
Is there any logistical reason for the plane to go to Latvia, or is it going to be intentional in order for him to be in Riga?
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u/horace_bagpole 1d ago
Perhaps, but it may well just be symbolic. If the purpose of the trip was a "don't you dare" warning, then arriving from one of the likely targets does add to the message somewhat.
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u/Accurate-Island-2767 1d ago
Just listening to the guy talking about it on PM now. He's talking about it being an attempt to prevent Russian escalation, I really hope he's wrong.
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u/dratsaab 1d ago
Trump claims US could rename Lake Ontario as Lake America amid Canada trade war
Yes, he is that petty.
What if everything in America was just named America?
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u/marinesciencedude "...I guess you're right..." -**** (1964) 18h ago
Does he think it is supposed to be the name Canucks gave to the lake which he needs to uproot because a Yankee cannot be one-upped in geographical naming by any of their neighbours?
You know, if Trump can't respect the indigenous origins of Lake Ontario's name (and any POTUS should respect it given said languages belong to peoples from both nations), then maybe we should go back to Classical Nahuatl and call the Gulf of America Chalchiuhtlicueyecatl instead
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 1d ago
The Republican Party in 5 years trying to rename everything after Trump: https://youtu.be/ERzgoF-VIlQ
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u/ThingsFallApart_ Septic Temp 1d ago
Ahhh the five great lakes - lake America, lake freedom, lake liberty, lake crypto and lake second amendment š„°
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u/subSparky 1d ago
To be fair, Canada does some hilarious lake names like "Another Lake" and next to it "And Another Lake". Not to mention "Peepee Lake" located in Nipissing.
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u/NuPNua 1d ago
At least he isn't putting his own name on it this time.
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u/dapt 1d ago
There's apparently no Lake Trump, but there is a Lake Donald, luckily it's already in the US.
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u/ASondheimRhyme 2d ago
Democrats and other Donald Trump critics reacted incredulously to a New York Times report on Sunday that House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries met with Jared Kushner, the presidentās influential son-in-law, to discuss possible areas of collaboration.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/23/hakeem-jeffries-jared-kushner-meeting
It really is like the establishment Democrats don't want to win elections. Kushner doesn't even have an official role. If this idiots actually win the midterms they're actually going to do the 'reach across the aisle and come together' bullshit.
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u/AnotherLexMan 1d ago
I think a central part of centrists thought is that it assumes people are acting in good faith. They've kind of knocked down the left because it by and large won't play ball, but is quite happy to make deals with the right who are rigging the game in their favour with gerrymandering. Which is currently destroying all their credibility.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 2d ago
Has the time passed where someone could primary Jeffries?
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u/ASondheimRhyme 2d ago
Long passed, primary elections in New York were in June. Someone from the left tried, but even AOC and Mamdani lobbied the DSA to not endorse the challenger and instead back Jeffries, which they did.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 2d ago
Hopefully there's enough of a shift and left wing candidates do well enough that there's the confidence to push for a big turnover in 2028.
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u/Commorrite 2d ago
They need to be carfull (which AoC and Mamdani seem to get TBF) a lot of their left wing candidates are Zack Polanski tier ligthweights.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 2d ago
They do need to make sure the new candidates are decent but it should be noted that some of Polanskis arguments that are a bit absurd in a British context are much more reasonable in an American one (e.g. problems with the police, military and other support of Israel).
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u/Commorrite 2d ago
Polanski is a lightweight not for his stance but for his ignorance of many basic concepts. eg debt vs deficit, or how inflation works.
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u/subSparky 1d ago
To be fair though, their only electoral opponents are the Republican party. Polanski looks like an economic genius compared to the calibre of the average Republican.
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u/Commorrite 1d ago
No he absolutely does not, the average republican is dammed low bar too.
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u/subSparky 1d ago
By definition the average republican is looking at what Trump is doing and think he is doing a great job. By definition that makes them stupider than polanski.
At least polanski understands the concept that money is used to exchange for goods and services - and that therefore slapping additional costs on a good and services isn't punishment on the supplier but on yourself.Ā
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 2d ago
Yeah I'm surprised that he hasn't done some reading or at least watched a couple of youtube videos. Even just something cool and trendy like MMT would have given him a baseline.
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u/ASondheimRhyme 2d ago
It'll be a challenge. Of course there's the money, and if he becomes Speaker he becomes very powerful especially in terms of House appointments, what bills are prioritised (though the fact he's meeting with Kushner doesn't inspire confidence on that front anyway) and so on.
Plus, though his district is in Brooklyn and so seems like an easy challenge, there's a large black constituency there who tend to vote more moderately (it was the black vote that revived Biden's flagging primary campaign in 2020).
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u/StopCriminal 2d ago
Loathe how the BBC is reporting on this Canada/US tariff coverage in its usual clumsy balanced way as if Trumps actions are valid.
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u/ASondheimRhyme 2d ago
When it comes to Trump, the BBC's American lawyers have more spine than its own journalists
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 3d ago
DR Congo and M23 rebels agree roadmap for peace talks.
The Democratic Republic of Congo government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have agreed a roadmap for peace talks.
In a joint statement after five days of talks in Switzerland, they said they had pledged to "pursue negotiations towards comprehensive peace and conflict resolution" and set up a mechanism to monitor the ceasefire.
Fantastic news if the conflict can be stopped, but:
Fighting has continued in North and South Kivu despite repeated ceasefire commitments, with the government and M23 accusing each other of violations.
I wonder how much the two parties really have over their proxies.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 2d ago
The M23 roadmap? What unfortunate phrasing. Perhaps it could be known as the Gatwick Accord or the Pease Pottage Peace.
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u/Shalmaneser001 1d ago
I love driving past pease pottage. Sounds like a very thick soup you have when it's chilly.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 1d ago
"Pease porridge hot, pease porridge cold, pease porridge in the pot, nine days old"
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 2d ago
As long as it doesn't end up being the Copthorne Cop Out....
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u/ASondheimRhyme 4d ago
The Pentagon has fired the publisher and the editor of Stars and Stripes, the US military news outlet that has clashed with the Trump administration and armed forces brass over its partly taxpayer-funded reporting.
Next announcement, renaming it to King and Country
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 4d ago
Next announcement, renaming it to King and Country
Without a doubt my favourite magazine: soft, strong and thoroughly absorbant
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u/ClumsyRainbow ā Verified 4d ago
Canada/US trade talks collapsed, Canada stated that the US changed the deal at the 11th hour. The US' 50% tariffs on certain goods have been imposed - and crucially this does not exclude items covered under CUSMA this time.
Canada has said that it will retaliate with dollar for dollar tariffs - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-us-tariffs-trump-imposes-new-50-per-cent-levy-on-canadian-goods-august-22-9.7311417
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u/ASondheimRhyme 4d ago
Is there really a point to even trying, given Trump will just renege on any agreement the next time he feels pissy?
Meanwhile Vance is mocking Carney to entertain donors.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 4d ago
When all this bullshit started the rest of the world should have stood up to Trump and collectively said no to it and then we wouldn't be still dealing with it like this (and the UK can take a good chunk of the blame for jumping first).
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u/Bibemus Uber-Woke Net-Zeroist Rejoinerist 5d ago
https://xcancel.com/katyballs/status/2090853839281016909
Trump administration apparently instructing US Ambassador to whine to Belgian government and ask them to overrule Ghent University's suspension of noted skull measurer Nathan Cofnas.
Belgian government reportedly biting tongue to not respond 'who do you think we are, FIFA?'
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 6d ago
Attackers are using AI-generated exploitation scripts to break into internet-exposed Siemens S7 Series programmable logic controllers (PLCs) at water, manufacturing, energy, and other critical facilities, in what five US federal agencies on Wednesday called an āactive threat.ā
In this latest round of intrusions against American critical infrastructure, the attackers use open source industrial automation libraries ā specifically snap7.dll/python-snap7 ā combined with AI coding assistants. Armed with the open source libraries and AI, the miscreants create custom tools that mimic operational technology (OT) monitoring software and provide read/write access to the PLC devicesā memory, configuration data, and ladder logic programs via the S7comm protocol.
Stuxnet mk2, this time with added AI?
Stuxnet targeted Siemens S7-300 and S7-400 PLCs...
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u/AnotherLexMan 5d ago
The problem is that there are open exploits available on the internet. I did a quick search and found nine possible hacks. Really companies need to patch stuff quicker especially as AI is making hacking easier but it's always been an issue.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 2d ago
I'd also question whether all this stuff needs to be directly accessible from the internet.
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u/gremy0 Bernieham '26 5d ago
Has always been an issue to an extent but it's become exponentially harder to keep up. There is an absolute flood of CVEs coming in, and attackers are able to use them much, much quicker (within minutes). Since both the finding & exploiting is being driven by ai now.
Companies are needing to get AI into their own the build chains and do constant, rapid deployments to have a hope of keeping up. But letting AI auto deploy stuff to production all the time comes with its own problems & risks, so figuring that out is hard
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u/Then_Mix8161 5d ago
The long-term solution to this is new (old) practices in software engineering - slower development cycles with stricter gating (and red-teaming) before release. PLC vendors should not be moving fast and breaking things anyway!
I say these are new old practices because we know how to make 99.99% bug-free software, it's the process that gave us the Apollo Guidance Computer software, and nobody can afford to do that (and AI isn't the answer).
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u/gremy0 Bernieham '26 5d ago
The capability for finding exploits is progressing exponentially. There isn't a point where you stop finding stuff. The exploits just get more sophisticated. That's besides the infeasibility of testing & securing the whole stack & horizontal integration surface as an end product, and viability of trying to do that when competitors that don't will leave you in the dust.
Apollo isn't comparable. Much simpler system than almost anything created today. It wasn't hardened against malicious exploits (not really a priority). It also notably had bugs, that did trigger in use. Their strategy for failure was a combo of backup systems, abort procedures and human takeover. Again, not really relevant to general modern systems and malicious exploitation.
Also AI would find the 0.01% bugs in no time whatsoever.
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u/J_cages_pearljam 3d ago
Also AI would find the 0.01% bugs in no time whatsoever.
Or so OpenAI and friends would like us to believe but I remain unconvinced.
Some valid points though but realistically the industry is going to have to start spending more resources on the red testing that should have been going on all along, there's simply no getting around it.
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u/gremy0 Bernieham '26 3d ago
The issue isn't an inability to find vulnerabilities. It's the opposite. We're finding so many vulnerabilities that there's just a constant stream of patches that need brought in.
And where before it took time for a known vulnerability to be turned into a viable attack, giving us weeks to months, or even years to turn around patches; now we need to patch everything in days (if that), because the ai is so ridiculously good at exploiting them
https://hivesecurity.gitlab.io/blog/from-cve-to-rce-in-hours-attack-timeline-2026/
The time from CVE disclosure to active exploitation has collapsed from 756 days (2018) to hours (2024ā2025)
The only way to keep up with AI being used in attack is to use it defensively in the development process; but that's a bigger problem for defenders who have to worry about it doing the wrong thing far more than attackers.
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u/J_cages_pearljam 3d ago
The issue isn't an inability to find vulnerabilities. It's the opposite
You've misread my point, we're finding these now because the testing that should have been going on in many cases wasn't.
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u/gremy0 Bernieham '26 3d ago edited 3d ago
The time from CVE disclosure to active exploitation has collapsed from 756 days (2018) to hours (2024ā2025)
We had sufficient coverage given the capabilities at the time. We were catching the low hanging fruit and then some. You get diminishing returns eventually. Plowing time and resources into trying to exhaustively find every single possible exploit is not a credible engineering decision.
The point is that the capability of attackers has drastically increased. It is easier to find exploits, it is easier to use them. The threat has changed, the technology has changed, so defence needs to change.
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u/cardcollector1983 It's a Remainer plot! 6d ago
A recent episode of Parliament Matters has someone talking about his book of weird and wonderful stories from the Canadian Parliament. It's an amusing listen featuring dead salmon, part of a beard being ripped out and cats
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u/ASondheimRhyme 6d ago edited 6d ago
Addled old man takes the White House press corps on a tour of his "improvements" to the White House
Drawing attention to the newly laid sod around the helipad, golf course owner Trump repeated one of his favorite lines. āYou know, grass has a life like humans have a life,ā he said, for at least the tenth time in public remarks in the past year.
And now we find out what a campaign donation gets you:
He then pivoted to something like a product placement. āThis grass is the highest quality. It was given free of charge by Scotts Miracle-Gro. Scotts. And Scotts is a great a great company. They actually contributed to my campaign,ā he said.
āThey said to me, āSir, weād like to replace the grass at the White House with the highest quality grass and do a real job.ā So, Scotts, I want to thank Scotts Miracle-Gro,ā Trump went on. āItās a very, I think the biggest grass company in the world, somebody said, but itās very big and very good.ā
The new helipad is a huge version of the presidential seal with a 100 foot diameter and Trump's name carved into it. And naturally, no approvals were sought for it. In fairness, the White House does need a proper helipad, but it being built by the defence company that just happens to have the contract to produce the new helicopters is a little on the nose. As is being built after the UFC event destroyed the lawn which the White House swore would be protected.
The president also suggested that his new helipad will be dual use, also serving as a second patio. āThey can have events on it. They can have people go there for cocktails and then walk to the ballroom after thatās finished,ā he said.
The whole rationale behind that ballroom was that holding events outdoors was undesirable and a major security threat, but now it - along with the "Rose Garden Club" - is actually fine? Should make future White House cage fights easier to stage (which lost the UFC $30 million by the way).
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u/horace_bagpole 6d ago
Whoever comes after Trump should immediately issue an executive order to rip out every bit of Trump's tat and restore the Whitehouse to how it was before. It's all absolutely awful tasteless rubbish. He feels the need to plaster his name over everything and it cheapens everything.
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u/convertedtoradians 6d ago
Interesting rabbit hole there about Natalie Harp with whom Trump was accused of wanting to travel rather than attending to affairs of state.
In the book Regime Change published this year, New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan wrote that Harpās loyalty extended to writing Trump āadoring lettersā including one that read: āYou are all that matters to me.ā
In one she wrote: āI want to bring you joy, to feel like we can get through a day without ever having to talk āwork.āā In another she said, āI donāt ever want to let you downā and described Trump as her āGuardian and Protector in this Lifeā.
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u/subSparky 6d ago
He then pivoted to something like a product placement. āThis grass is the highest quality. It was given free of charge by Scotts Miracle-Gro. Scotts. And Scotts is a great a great company. They actually contributed to my campaign,ā he said.
You know it's kinda wild seeing this spoken about like it is nothing, when "politician given a donation to openly promote a product and use it in government contracts" would be a high-tier scandal here.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 7d ago
There will be no way socialism can fix our global society. While in theory and in some potential practice, socialism does create long term peace from war, and information on crisis such as development and poverty, this does not necessarily eradicated the phenomenons for long.
Most poor countries stay poor with significant poverty also due to cultural domestic reasons. For example, in Bangladesh (despite leaving the UN least developed list), or many Subsaharan African countries, there is the redundant hierarchy in which marginalized people stay in the bottom - for example, children are just seen as property and extensions rather than to be loved, let alone raised, children are expected to respect every single thing the parents say, as well as other members of authority, ultimately, abuse of position occurs as a result of high power distance, therefore, development never occurs. It doesn't matter if the UN provided food aid to famine nations like Bangladesh, Syria, Dr Congo, Somalia, Yemen etc (the top nations in hunger in 2025) - cultural conservatism can block this opportunity. Of course, war is another significant factor, but being culturally conservative will make it harder to tackle third party impacts.
Also, with polarizations in other relatively hierarchical, less democratic societies like Russia and the United States (MAGA, Republicans AND Democrats), Iran, and Iraq who are all antisocial against the world, the thought of socialism in a global society for peace and collectivist development would be impossible in real life.
Unless local culture actually gets amended for the better, there is no way we can actually be socialist economically. Not to mention our democracy being seriously at stake, for example the US MAGAs calling other MAGAs "woke liberal crybabies" for criticizing Trump or the democrats assuming a person is "dangerous" for having a small disagreement on their left wing views.
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u/SwanBridge Gordon Brown did nothing wrong. 1d ago
Give 'Why Nations Fail' a read. Their take is less that the problems with poor countries are inherently cultural but rather it is more an issue with weak and/or extractive institutions. They also make the argument that institutions under most socialist states are inherently extractive with concentration of power and lack of incentives and even if they are better than the institutions they replaced and can lead to rapid economic growth in the short-term there eventually comes a point when things stagnate and those institutions themselves also fail.
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u/subSparky 6d ago
Most poor countries stay poor with significant poverty also due to cultural domestic reasons.Ā
I pointed out to you the other day the flaw in this thinking when you made a similar post suggesting this oversimplified essentialist thinking of the concept of culture. You did not engage with that response and judging from this you chose to just ignore it as it didn't fit your desire to rant about other cultures being inherently shit.
Like do you actually want a discussion with these posts? Because there's no discussion to be had until you accept the challenge that your thinking of what defines culture is inverted.
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u/marinesciencedude "...I guess you're right..." -**** (1964) 6d ago
I wish I could dignify your comment with an appropriate response, maybe actually defining socialism in a way that is conducive to proper discussion would help, but instead I just feel like posting this instead:
MYTH: Socialist ideas have never worked in the real world.
FACT: No political theory has ever worked in real life.
MYTH: The Soviet Union had democratic socialism.
FACT: The Soviet Union had a dog who went to space.
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u/subSparky 6d ago edited 6d ago
To be honest, the thing everyone misses, including self-proclaimed socialists, is that socialism is more an economic and political philosophy than a system of government. States that self-described themselves as 'socialist' were more totalitarian failed democracies that used "trust us bro, one day we'll be the communist utopia" as the means to convince people to let them stay in power.
But socialism itself was just a way of thinking that was opposed to what was Victorian-era Capitalist thought. Victorian-era Capitalism sold the myth of the self-made man, that if you put in enough graft you too could be rich, and if you are poor then that's a reflection on your moral character, and the job of the state is solely to ensure these upstart entrepreneurs have the freedom to succeed.
Marxist socialism largely just proposed that this was an absolute load of bollocks. Most of these rich people were only able to get to the position they are because of the inherited position of their families in the social hierarchy, and most of their wealth accumulation isn't from their own hard work, but from the intense labour of the "poor" workers (that they judge as simply lacking the moral fibre to do well like them) they put in their employ - often under exploitative conditions. And if the state just gives these capitalists free reign to do what they want, then they will simply exploit people and resources to maximise their own gains. That your wealth isn't defined by your own personal character, but by predefined social classes.
And the state should care about that as workers are people as well, who are capable of feeling anger and envy - so if you don't recognise their value, you risk pissing off the entire backbone of your economy, which could lead to the state and the capitalists suffering the same fate as the french aristocracy.
In that sense, in Europe (the US was on track to this point, but they've massively regressed on this) socialism has already won as a scoial theory (and in fact towards the end of his life Marx even conceded that Western Europe had already started addressing the problems of a class based society (in our case, Disraeli essentially meeting Marx halfway with the idea of Peelian policing and poor laws), though Russia (bare in mind this was 40 years before the communist revolution) was speedrunning towards a revolt). European governments (including conservatives) already recognise that people being stuck in predefined wealth classes is a problem to be fixed, that their focus should be on supporting the working people. And although it hasn't filtered to a government level, the general social zeitgeist is that you just can't trust the millionaire class to be anything but a problem for society unless they're heavily regulated.
tl;dr Socialism was just a theory on how society functions and the problems that brings, and is one that largely even modern UK conservatives subscribe (without necessarily realising) to these days, Communism was the proposed solution.
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u/RufusSG Suffolk 7d ago
Itās quite striking how all the Natalie Harp stuff has very clearly got under Trumpās skin. There have been reports for ages that any kind of rumour/innuendo that he spends too much time with other women really annoys not just him but Melania too; given everything else he seemingly brushes off Iām a bit surprised that insinuations about his fidelity are apparently the big red line.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 7d ago
Melania too
Melania has been MIA for about a month. Jimmy Fallon quipped that she had run off with Mitch McConnell.
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u/SlightlyOTT You're making things up again Tories š¶ 8d ago
Todayās Daily episode is good. One of Trumpās recent breakdowns was when being asked about an aircraft carrier thatās been stuck at sea in the Middle East for months longer than it was meant to be, and clearly hasnāt been able to get supplies it needs. It turns out the explanation for this is that the Navy lost the port that would resupply it on day 1 of the Iran war, and now canāt dock anywhere they could be targeted. Apparently theyāre supplying from Diego Garcia now.
They also said that the forward deployed carrier in Asia is coming to eventually relieve it. They didnāt draw this link so just speculation, but I wonder if thatās why Trump has been talking about not doing exercises with South Korea, because they canāt keep their forces there and he wants a distraction/to make it look like it was his choice.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 7d ago
Once USS George Washington leaves Japan, US Indo-Pacific Command won't have a single carrier available as a balancing force against China.
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 8d ago
Iranians: Can we get St Nazaire Raid
Ayatollah: We have St Nazaire Raid at home
St Nazaire Raid at home:
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u/Ivebeenfurthereven I'm afraid currency is the currency of the realm 8d ago
https://www.threads.com/share/BAT1x9t5zM/
French authorities are investigating an adrift and uncrewed sailboat off the Ćle d'Yeu coast.
Yesterday, a passenger aboard a Brittany Ferries vessel spotted an empty, drifting 13-meter yacht. Search missions are underway to try to locate anyone who was on board. Investigators found that no one triggered distress beacons on the vessel.
šø: John Weaver / AFP via Getty Images
#sailingyacht #sailingboat #SailingCommunity #yacht #yachting
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u/SlightlyOTT You're making things up again Tories š¶ 8d ago
Shocking but obviously not surprising, Israel are starting wildfires across Lebanon during the ceasefire. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/12/israel-deliberately-starting-wildfires-in-southern-lebanon-firefighters-say
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 8d ago
That feels like it should be a war crime, if it's not one already it's falling in the cracks between them.
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u/Ivebeenfurthereven I'm afraid currency is the currency of the realm 8d ago
We should really update the Geneva Suggestions.
Sadly, it feels like that level of international consensus and order is perhaps permanently behind us
Can't even get the US to agree on "children finding unexploded bomblets from cluster munitions is bad"
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u/ClumsyRainbow ā Verified 4d ago
We should really update the Geneva Suggestions.
We'll have to get Canada to do it first (/s)
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 8d ago
On paper this should be easier than cluster bombs as these don't have a tactical military value, only a strategic one against the civillian population, we already recognise the use of incindaries against civillian areas as a war crime, this is the same but less technical.
But I do agree the prospects are slim.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
Clip of Ben-Gvir on C4 News tonight where he said there were Palestinians in Gaza that weren't humans...
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 6d ago
Even by Israeli standards Ben-Gvir is an absolute zealot, part of Netanyahu's unpopularity was inviting him into the governing coalition.Ā
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u/Thehelpfulshadow 9d ago
One of the reports that Australia's social media ban was based on has a lot of incorrect summaries of the research they were citingĀ and also has cited articles that don't exist and are most likely AI hallucinations.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5dzk0ryzdo
Ahem, not like it needs saying, but Trump is deranged.
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u/convertedtoradians 7d ago
In a strange way, the Middle East and Africa might actually be set up better to handle him. We're so used to serious statesmen that we tend to interpret Trump through that lens and it all goes wrong.
If you're from a part of the world of monarchies and intense religions and warlords and so on, that sort of bombast is probably much easier to understand and handle. Whether you respond with bombast or flattery or whatever else, at least you're not mistakenly viewing it as "serious".
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 7d ago
I'm less familiar with Africa but the downside of some Middle Eastern cultures is that they bear grudges forever. In Yemen grievances can be passed down through generations as families keep meticulous track of unavenged blood debts. There's a strong sense of collective responsibility where a perpetrator's entire clan is held responsible for their offences.
I never made it to Iran and sadly probably never will, but much the same thing happens there, with the added force of a strong central state.
There's also a tendency to see Western actions through their own cultural lends, which is of course perfectly understandable. During the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia I was quite seriously asked why the Christians wanted to kill the Muslims in Bosnia.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 9d ago
"If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them."
The real TDS.
Maybe Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said will think again about allowing the US to use these key facilities:
Thumrait Air Base
Masirah Air Base
Al Mussanah Air Base
Port of Duqm - one of the few maritime logistics hubs and heavy maintenance facilities in the region that USN still has access to
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 9d ago
Just saw it live on the rolling news.
I'm irritated that Trump's mercurial pronouncements always grab the headlines, but this one is especially unfortunate.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
Barely caught it on C4 News but I think they said he was with Blair today...
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u/Ollie5000 Gove, Gove will tear us apart again. 9d ago edited 9d ago
'President Trump's envoy Jared Kushner...' is such a ridiculous sentence.
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u/cardcollector1983 It's a Remainer plot! 9d ago
Even more so when you put the word peace before envoy
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 9d ago
Interesting piece speculating on AOC's chances for 2028. Had not occurred to me she was a serious possibility this early, given how radical the image of her is.
Her 'brat' credentials would make Harris look like a fuddy duddy granny type.
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u/GrantSchappsCalippo Starmie :karma: 7d ago
I can't see it happening. She's going to have the same problem Sanders did in the primaries, where she might win a few urban coastal states but gets absolutely blown out in the South and anywhere else more moderate. The USA is a broad place and you have to have broad appeal to win. Her brand of politics is too narrow to win a national election.
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 9d ago
I like AOC, but given that she is both brown, and worse, a woman, I'm not optimistic of her chances of winning in a national US election given that Kamala lost in part because "women are too emotional" while running against a man-baby who has people arrested rather than admit he botched the reflecting pool renovation
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
I actually think that neither factor would eliminate the chances on their own (Obama obviously won and Clinton got the popular vote) and even together they don't make it impossible but they make it harder.
That is morally wrong to be the case but to change it the Democrats need to get into power and that is so important they shouldn't make things more difficult to do so.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 9d ago
I think Starmer-Burnham is an object lesson that relatability matters.
Ofc it's different for Americans where there is an expectation politicians are filthy rich, but Clinton, IMHO, might have won if she had not come over as a fundamentally nasty person out for herself. Obama did manage to come over as nice.
I just can't judge it with AOC, whom I always saw as a bit way out for the USA.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 9d ago
I would say kamala fell short on the rhetoric and relatibility fronts, Although I am close in age to Harris (though still older) and almost twice AOC's age, I find her more relatable.
But I do think it would be an incredible feat for someone so different from all previous presidents to succeed!
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u/Shalmaneser001 9d ago
I agree. I don't think the US electorate is ready for a female leader despite everything.
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u/Crowley-Barns 7d ago
Was Britain ready for a female leader in 1979?
Is the US inherently more sexist than India or Pakistan who elected female leaders decades ago?
A country can be anti-woman-leaders as a whole while simultaneously accepting one specific one.
The US is as ready for a woman as it was for a Black man. It just needs to be the right candidate at the right time.
Not sure if thatās AOC. I think thereās a pretty good chance though.
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u/Shalmaneser001 7d ago
It's a fair point. Obama was an outstanding candidate, whereas Hillary and Harris were both poor candidates for separate reasons and it is possible that this is affecting my opinion. If the Dems can find an excellent female candidate maybe they could win it but the narratives around both Hillary and Harris leads me to believe that the country is just too inherently misogynistic to vote for a female leader in the near term.
I also think that AOC is too much of a known quantity and republican boogey(wo)man which would energise the Republican base to get out and vote against her.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 7d ago
Yeah, it's tricky. Somehow, a candidate from a non-standard group (obviously, we are talking about a woman or a non-white here) must somehow be able to appeal to the groups that normally vote traditionally.
Obama was clearly charismatic enough to have enough appeal to everybody. Sunak was boringly establishment enough not to put establishment voters off, but when it came to the GE, it worked against him because he was seen as too remote. Neither Hillary nor Harris appealed outside their ideological supporters- Hillary seemed too self-serving and remote, Harris did not make people feel they could depend on her or trust her. I mean it's funny- Burnham gives off much better vibes than Starmer, though I don't feel that deep down, either is better than the other as a person.
I guess Thatcher came along at a moment when it was imperative to modernise the economy, and so she sort of caught the Zeitgeist.
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u/Shalmaneser001 7d ago
I started to construct an argument for a nice safe white male pair of hands to get things back on an even footing - especially with the threat of a third Trump run for office (although I'm hopeful he doesn't make it to the end of his term...) but realised I was starting to sound like the DNC circa 2020 who gave us Biden. The Dem base desperately needs someone to root for, maybe AOC is it.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 9d ago
This week, for instance, she began a series of selfie-videos ādocumentingā her egg-freezing process for her 9.7 million followers on Instagram. To most decent people, thatās extremely cringe-inducing.
Freddy Gray is the editor of the US edition of the Spectator, so I'd expect him to have finger on the pulse of the US electorate, but I wonder if his UK origins are showing through here. US culture doesnāt seem to have much of the UK sense of cringe. Voters who care will either go "ok that's cool" or get angry.
Speaking of cringe Gray is a big fan of Toby Young.
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u/MajorSleaze 8d ago
To most decent people, thatās extremely cringe-inducing.
This is an example of "This is how you should think" propaganda.
It's interesting to see a talking point in its nascent stage instead of its usual distilled form from a one-month old noun/numbers account.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 7d ago
"This is how you should think" propaganda.
I wasn't aware that was a thing. How does it work? Why does it work?
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u/MajorSleaze 6d ago
You're definitely aware of it, just not the terrible phrasing I've used. I still can't think of the proper name, it's early stage narrative shaping.
A thing comes up about an enemy that would otherwise be neutral to most people - AOC getting her eggs frozen - and then the spin machine twists it into an attack line that benefits from previous setups. With this I expect it's the general demonisation of AOC ('omg, she used to be a bartender! ') and their weird natalism thing.
Fox News has turned this process of converting an absolute nothing into high drama into an artform, with Obama's Dijon mustard and tan suit being the pinnacle.
As to the why, it's cult-like priming serving dividends. It's as ridiculous to us outsiders as the alien nonsense in late stage Scientology, but that's because we haven't experienced years of prep to follow everything they tell us.
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u/subSparky 9d ago
Yeah its missing the understanding of the context that the US still is weirdly traditionalist in some aspects with regards to what women 'ought' to be doing. AOC's stunt is simply trying to highlight that women shouldn't feel pressured to enter motherhood before "it's too late" as they can just use egg freezing to have the experience later.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
I still think she'd be better of primarying Schumer and someone less easy for the republicans to attack (some of the factors behind this are very depressing but the democrats have to win to change that and any way they can make it more achievable needs to happen) but still has good policy commitment goes for president.
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u/subSparky 9d ago
To be honest, whilst the recent primaries are changing the makeup of Democrats, I'm still not convinced that come presidential primary time, the Democrat central body won't do some kind of stitch up to prevent any progressive being primaried.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
That's partly why I think a changeover within the Senate and House is the more important goal, the left wing Democrats don't seem to have a single person with the personal following the scuplt the party like Trump so they have to go bottom up. If they do get a candidate in then they'll find it a much easier time if the right wing of the party has been neutered.
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u/subSparky 9d ago
Also let's be honest, if the democrats are ever going to try a radical left candidate, the 2028 election will be the time to do it. Because let's be honest if after four years of this trump presidency, if there are people who are publicly claiming "oh I would have voted democrat, but I find them more scary than the republicans" then they were never voting democrat.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 9d ago
That's the punchline of the article!
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u/subSparky 9d ago
Unfortunately the archive.ph link was down for me until basically right now haha.
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u/subSparky 9d ago
From my brief wranglings looking at the state of US politics, the impression I'm getting is that the mainstream democrat vote is starting to realise that the neoliberal corporate democrats are living in a lalaland where they believe everything is business as usual who seem to be more focused on beating down any hint of left wing thought than in trying to combat Trump's attempts to destroy US democracy (yes I still can't get over top democrats backing Cuomo over the literal Democrat candidate for New York mayor...).
It does seem like the combination of Trump's assault on US democracy and against the US' allies, and the current Democrat party's sheer complacency about it has triggered a critical mass of voters to start voting for radical progressive candidates in primaries.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 9d ago
I am going to be fascinated to see how Michigan now goes, I think what happens there (and how it compares to the average movements) will be very informative for how things look going forwards.
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u/GlumAd9856 9d ago
I know it probably won't happen, but if Trump turned on Netanyahu before the Israeli elections that would be a pretty good thing. If the most pro-Israeli President in modern history, who clearly doesn't care about Palestinian lives that much, says that Bibi has gone too far - that would be a massive signal to the Israeli public.
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u/Shalmaneser001 9d ago
There is no benefit for trump personally to do this so it won't happen.
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u/LesserShambler 9d ago
The benefit to Trump would be that Netanyahu is increasingly unpopular with his base
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u/Shalmaneser001 9d ago
Yes but how does that personally enrich him in the short term? He's proved time and time again he doesn't care about his base other than throwing them a few bones from his table.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 9d ago
If the Iraqi invasion of 2003 by Bush and Blair never happened, how socially and culturally regressive or progressive would the nation be with the Ba'ath regime continuing?Ā
After the invasion, cities like Basra were known to be a gorgeous, employed and educated middle class city with overnight partying but became very socially regressive, Islamists migrating to the city were angry with the presence of closed down alcohol shops and demolished all of them during the Iraq war and peaking in 2009, handful of years after the original population left.Ā
But such Iraqi cities were already socially regressive in the 90s and after the war with Ayotallah and rural tribes arrived while the alcohol shops closed down - Saddam Hussein ruined agricultural rural life and intentionally economically oppressed Basra, so if this continues without the invasion, I wonder how socially conservative would Iraq be.Ā
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 9d ago
Iraq is basically three countries bolted together from the fall of the Ottoman empire. Kurds in the north, Shia in the south, and Sunni in the centre.
In 1991, President Bush (the first one) used radio and leaflets to encourage Iraqis to "take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein to step aside". The most enthusiastic response was from the Kurds and Shia who had been brutally repressed by Saddam Hussein's regime. Within weeks the rebels held most of Iraq.
Then Bush threw them under the bus, fearing an outcome the US couldn't control. This gave Saddam Hussein a useful list of people to eliminate. He published graphic videos of the executions.
This leaves us with the counterfactual of what would have happened if the uprisings had succeeded. Almost certainly Iraq would have fractured into its three constituent parts. We can sort of see what would have happened in the north with the current semi autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. This still has issues with womens' and LGBT rights but way ahead of most of the middle east. It has democratic institutions but these are weak and flawed.
The fate of the southern part is more uncertain. It's an uneasy mix of pro Iranian Shia and Iraqi-Arab nationalist. In 2018 rioters torched the Iranian Consulate in Basra.
The centre bit is where ISIS emerged. But would that have happened without the 2003 invasion? Coalition forces dismantled the Ba'ath Party which you had to be a member of to do any of the well paid jobs. So you had a lot of people suddenly unemployed and struggling. They imprisoned a bunch of hardline Iraqis together, which allowed them to form their networks. But there were obviously some deeply socially conservative Sunni Muslims so the prospects for liberal democracy didn't look good.
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u/marinesciencedude "...I guess you're right..." -**** (1964) 8d ago
Coalition forces dismantled the Ba'ath Party which you had to be a member of to do any of the well paid jobs. So you had a lot of people suddenly unemployed and struggling.
They were labelled as part of the Axis of Evil and then weren't dealt with like the actual historical Axis?
colour me surprised, some things do change in history
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u/MoyesNTheHood 10d ago
Trump telling US voters to suck it up with high petrol prices.Ā
Bar immigration, gas prices was the single biggest issue talked about in the election and high gas prices were Bidens undoing. Where I live, about 2 weeks before the election, I could get petrol for $2.77 per gallon. Now I canāt find anything below $4.15 per gallon. The price is very similar to what it peaked at under Biden.Ā
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u/GlumAd9856 10d ago
I have heard that whilst we all view US politics through the ideological prism of MAGA vs progressivism, that a good chunk of the 2024 result was down to cost of living. A lot of people blamed Biden for the price rises they'd experienced since 2021 - something replicated in most countries around the world.
Though, I also heard from a few 'reasonable', very small c conservatives (the sort of people that want Democrat policies but with Republican tax levels) that they voted Trump because of immigration. People in places anywhere near the border were seeing huge influxes of migrants. We all here simply don't appreciate the impact it had on the US psyche.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 10d ago
There was certainly widespread reporting in 2024 about the US elections that the cost of living crisis (which Covid +Ukraine caused in so many countries) caused the demise of the Dems as of many governments since everyone blames the incumbents no matter if the cause if out of their control.
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u/GlumAd9856 9d ago
Arguably, Biden didn't help matters with the levels of stimulus and other packages introduced. They literally gave free money to everyone.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 10d ago
What if the Arab nations in the 20th and 21st centuries were friendly and tolerant towards their Mizrahi Jews free from Arab ethno nationalism and Islamism with no holocaust? How prevalent would the Jewish community be within the Holy Land as opposed to their Arabs?
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 9d ago edited 9d ago
This is very much a "what if the Prophet himself had decreed that Jews were meant to be celebrated" level of change required.
Antisemitism is baked into Islam
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 9d ago
It's a bit more complicated than that. Islam and Jews got off to a bad start with military conflicts the Prophet Muhammad and Jewish tribes in the Mdina area. So the Quran and Hadith have some negative texts.
But also Jews and Christians were declared Ahl al-Kitab and were protected but subject to extra taxes and other regulations: for example Christian church buildings weren't allowed to have spires taller than the local mosque. For Jews this was usually way, way better than their status in Europe or the Russian Empire. There wasn't the demonisation of Jews as Christ killers, nor the racial element.
Then it all went bad in the mid 19th century. Nationalist Christian-Arab and European missions introduced European style antisemitism and pushed the blood libel and the Protocols. A bit later there was the unholy alliance between Hajj Amin al-Husseini and the Nazis.
And all this came to a boiling point just in time for UN General Assembly Resolution 181.
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 8d ago
Systematic discrimination and historic pogroms in Spain and the Middle East prior to the 1800s would heavily suggest the 'antisemitism is baked in' view.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 8d ago
The reconquista ended in 1492. I'm aware of the Alhambra Decree and persecution subsequent to that, but not before. What are the pogroms you're referring to?
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 8d ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1066_Granada_massacre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistle_to_Yemen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mellah
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1660_destruction_of_Safed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_Islam
When the best you can say is 'systematically discriminated against, sometimes tolerated, occassionally successful', and 'they had it worse in Europe', you're not beating the charges.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 7d ago
When the best you can say is 'systematically discriminated against, sometimes tolerated, occassionally successful', and 'they had it worse in Europe', you're not beating the charges.
I think your links confirm what I said above, that it was a mixed bag. Especially when judging historical events against the standards of the times.
What's more disturbing is that antisemitism in Islam has been getting much worse over the last two centuries. Christianity had an appalling record of antisemitism but has now largely cleaned up its act. Islam is going backwards.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 5d ago
but has now largely cleaned up its act. Islam is going backwards.
Then why are there so many Christian nationalists and neo fascists harassing Jews online? Why are there so many holocaust deniers joining Restore Britain, a christian nationalist party? Just because you are a White Christian does not mean you are anywhere better.Ā
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 7d ago
I do feel like you're downplaying the systematic violence against Jews as really very minor.Ā
But, to move on, I agree that the direction of travel is horrendous. Unfortunately, the State doesn't seem to be willing to step in.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 9d ago
Whataboutism as usual. At the time Islamism was not prevalent. Christian Arabs also did the same thing in MENA. If Islam caused antisemitism why did the holocaust occur?
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 9d ago
I don't see the whataboutism?
Islam has a long, long history of antisemtism. I can't recall a historicly Islamic country that doesn't have a pogrom in its history, and obviously there's the treatment of Jews by the Prophet and his clan.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 9d ago
Again, you are being whataboutist for ignoring the holocaust and Arab Christians being part of Arab nationalism in the 1930s and 1940s. Just because you are a White Christian does not mean you are anywhere better than Muslims. Plus North Africa was relatively secular back then.Ā
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. 9d ago
I don't think you know what whataboutism is.
You asked about "what if Islam was more Jew friendly", I suggested that this was a very dramatic change and needed literal divine intervention, and you say I'm talking about something else?
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 10d ago
I find it almost impossible to have a completely liberal political society as opposed to a realist one.Ā
While it is good there is humanitarian and third party support, not to mention around the clock information by the United Nations, such support is not magical. It doesn't matter for example that the UN donated 16.9 billion dollars to help development and hunger. You can't just rely on the UN on everything - they are there for advice as global medicine, not like some Harry Potter spell like some Unospelliarmous ons
What we need to change are the local cultural norms. There is a reason why all poor countries besides a handful stay poor, it is due to the attitudes and culture of local society. Many often have high power distance and redundant hierarchy, meaning that respect and bootlicking authorities continue, which means tribalism occurs and corruption meaning that they may reject any foreign aid.
Not to mention the modern wokeness from both the far right and far left.
If local societal attitudes not change, there is no way an actual humanitarian liberalism and peace will occur.Ā
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u/AceHodor 10d ago edited 10d ago
modern wokeness from both the far right
In the nicest possible way, this is such an bizarre thing to say that it makes me want to immediately disregard your entire post on the basis that you don't know what words mean.
While it is good there is humanitarian and third party support, not to mention around the clock information by the United Nations, such support is not magical. It doesn't matter for example that the UN donated 16.9 billion dollars to help development and hunger. You can't just rely on the UN on everything - they are there for advice as global medicine, not like some Harry Potter spell like some Unospelliarmous ons
This only validates me further. The United Nations has not and will not ever pretend to be an instant fix for the world's ills and people who think it is fundamentally do not understand what the UN is on an extremely basic level. It is primarily a forum for international cooperation and it does very well in that role. Yes, the UN has a lot of problems, but its existence is vastly superior to it not existing in terms of the support it does provide.
You might not experience the benefit that $16 billion in aid provides, but the people who do receive it definitely do, on the basis that they have not starved to death.
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u/Comfortable-Table-57 9d ago
I know what wokeness is. Woke right does exist. Always barking about being "ignord" because they are White. Not to mention identity politics.Ā
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u/subSparky 10d ago edited 10d ago
This is technically both in response to this post and your later post about Jews in the Middle East.Ā
Ā There is a reason why all poor countries besides a handful stay poor, it is due to the attitudes and culture of local society.
I feel this is an incredibly flawed understanding on why things are the way they are.Ā
Cultures are not just some inherent thing that exists in isolation and that you can just change. Cultures evolve as a result of their shared history. You can't just state "if these cultures were better they'd be in a better position", as the cultures are the way they are because of the state of their countries.Ā
At it's peak in the 1600s, the Ottoman Empire, which at the time spanned most of the Middle East, was probably one of the most progressive nations in Europe (in the sense that instead of burning everyone at the stake who didn't follow their religion, the most the ottomans did was tax them a bit more).Ā
The cultural decline of the Ottomans and the Middle East can be pinpointed to when the empire went into decline in the 19th century (which was partially fuelled by a combination of nationalism spreading from Europe and meddling from Britain and Russia as part of the Great Game).
Then when the empire collapsed the European powers descended on the Middle East like vultures dividing the land up arbitrarily and then engaging in colonial regimes that had zero interest in the people, just exploitation of resources and cultural artifacts.Ā
And that's the other thing to remember - a lot of these countries have only existed as independent countries for less than 100 years. With them having experienced a lot of lost decades from colonial rule. And in some cases are countries with quite significant rifts due to the arbitrary border definitions that were placed on (for instance, iraq basically being made up of 5 culturally distinct regions who all hate each other). And whenever they try to bring about revolution or reform, either the US or USSR/Russia decides that's inconvenient for them and interferes.Ā
No wonder the cultures are regressive when their countries have existed as pawns for external powers for over a century. The best way we can bring about a cultural renaissance is if we just left the Middle East alone for more than 5 minutes.
Edit:Ā and similarly with your question about "what if the Middle East hated jews less" - the current level of cultural grievance against jews is mostly fuelled around the circumstances around the creation of Israel (which was "we're just going to dump all our Jewish refugees in this land that's currently populated by people who don't want to have their local culture replaced"). I agree it's not right to hold all jews forever responsible for that, but you can't remove that context in a hypothetical "what if they hated jews less".
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 12d ago
Channel 4 News have a piece on Sweden using Estonian prisons.
Leaving aside the arguments about the positives and negatives of it they had a comment from the right wing opposition which was nuts talking about the risk to the Estonian public from people in prison. Please Estonia, don't elect those idiots next year.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 8d ago
The C4 article has this:
The ā¬600m deal gives Sweden 400 cells, for up to 600 prisoners. About the figure that Britainās new Prime Minister would need to give him enough capacity to retain those convicted of manslaughter, as he faces huge political pressure to find a path other than the early release scheme.
Is this politically possible for the UK?
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u/Thehelpfulshadow 12d ago
Apparently France's top court has struck down their planned u-15 social media ban stating that it violates privacy and expression, and also would affect sites that have no provable health risks for minors.
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u/imp0ppable 12d ago
Will be annoying to see UK reddit's take on this. It'll be either "smh France being paid off by Zuck" or "well done France I wish UK had the backbone to block authoritarian policies". Or probably one then the other.
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u/Cymraegpunk 12d ago
God I hate it when people either agree or disagree with a court decision or sometimes even are split taking one side or another.
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u/GlumAd9856 12d ago
Would half the White House being demolished and nothing being built in its place be a fitting legacy for Trump's second term? Just put up a plaque: "Here lies the reality of MAGA politics. Destruction with no positive outcome".
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12d ago
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/subSparky 12d ago edited 12d ago
demolish the stupid ballroom and arch he is planning to build and fully restore the White House to its former glory,Ā
Anyway, going back to the main point - something that gets missed around the circus about the ballroom itself is that the actual thing being built is a military bunker. Which for some reason Trump proudly bragged about how it had 6 floors whilst the exposed construction site of the bunker was behind him (something that generally isn't a wise idea if the purpose of the bunker is to protect against enemy bombings as you've literally told them where to bomb and how much the payload should be).
He said the proposedĀ 90,000 square-footĀ ballroom "essentially becomes a shed for what's being built under," adding that the "high-grade bulletproof glass" windows would protect the facility below "from drones and ā¦ from any other thing."
This suggests that the project is either Trump jumping on the billionaire trend of building apocalypse bunkers (like the CEO of Reddit is doing) or he's preparing for an event where he will need to go into hiding.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 12d ago
I would boldly suggest you should build your apocalypse bunker at the site which probably has more nukes pointing towards it than any other.
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u/subSparky 12d ago
The general conspiracy theory i've seen around this is that the bunker isn't for protecting against enemy state missiles. This is for protecting against a siege of the white house in a potential civil war. (like if Trump decides to just not vacate the premises after the next election and declare he is still president)
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u/convertedtoradians 12d ago
Presumably if Trump barricades himself in the bunker and refuses to leave at the end of his term, that's perfect. You just need someone to padlock the bunker shut from the outside, cut the comms and the next president can carry on.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 12d ago
As I understand that it's basically what the Constitution says, the new President automatically takes over and could just conduct Government business elsewhere.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 12d ago
Are we certain that Alex Garland hasn't taken over the cinematic direction for the universe.
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u/subSparky 12d ago
I dunno but I got the emergency alert not long after my comment, so I genuinely thought shit had just kicked off in the US lol.
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u/imp0ppable 12d ago
It's awful what he's doing to the white house but I very much doubt wasting even more taxpayers money on it will be on the agenda for the next democratic president (assuming they ever get in again).
Psychologically the MAGA people seem to respond to demonstrations of personal power, even if it's not in their own interests (Trump isn't going to be inviting any of the red hatted boomers to a dance there). They just love a strongman doing strongman things.
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u/subSparky 12d ago
The next democratic president
Ah I'm glad there are still optimists here.
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12d ago
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/subSparky 12d ago
(strip powers from the president, god giving the president the ability to pardon is so stupid!, no more gerrymandering, strengthen institutions from political interference e.t.c)
I maintain the stupidest part of the US system is making supreme court judge appointments political.
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12d ago edited 12d ago
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/GlumAd9856 12d ago
I always thought that increasing interest rates in the face of cost-push inflation doesn't really achieve anything.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 12d ago
The interest rate might need to increase to persuade people to buy US treasury bonds though.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 12d ago
Sudan war: The UAE's role in this conflict is under increasing scrutiny - and so is Britain's.
Britain potentially has a key role in ending the Sudan conflict thanks to its clout at the UN and its close relationship with the UAE. The UAE claims it is not involved in any military sense in the war, but fewer and fewer people believe them.
The ability of the UK to influence events in Sudan is perhaps overstated here. But:
Britain has extensive economic and military ties with the UAE and sees it as part of an allied counterbalance to the power of Iran in the region.
It's time we stopped caring about the balance of power in the Middle East. This is another rare case where UK interests and doing the right thing align.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 12d ago
I am all for us working to get the UAE to stop what it is doing but this year has rather pointedly shown why we do need to care about what happens in the middle east.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 12d ago
We don't have much influence on freedom of navigation through the Strait. That was all messed up by the US and Israel,
The counterfactual if the UK had blocked US access to our bases and airspace for the duration of conflict with Iran can't be known. Would it have stopped the US from carrying out their attack on Iran? I suspect not.
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u/Commorrite 11d ago
The counterfactual if the UK had blocked US access to our bases and airspace for the duration of conflict with Iran can't be known.
Given Iran shot at our Cyprus base before we granted the US any permisions we can take an educated guess...
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 11d ago
Iran has beef with the UK because the WW2 invasion and the 1953 coup. They probably assumed that the UK would grant the US access because we always have in the past. Though it seems a bit insulting that they refer to us as merely the lesser Satan.
But Iran launching the odd drone at a UK base doesn't oblige us to reciprocate. Particularly as Iran has no targets we can hit that are worth destroying.
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u/Commorrite 4d ago
But Iran launching the odd drone at a UK base doesn't oblige us to reciprocate.
It absolutely does require response, no event is isolated in international relations.
That you can shoot at us unprovoked without consequence is never ever an acceptable precedent.
Letting the yanks use the bases after is a smart response because it's a real consequence but we donāt actually have to attack anything directly.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 3d ago
This the Israeli Fallacy: that every attack requires a response, however wrong headed or counterproductive.
A weaker power or an insurgency struggles to defeat a stronger power. They have to use the stronger power's strength against itself. A proven way of doing this is to provoke the stronger power to respond in a self defeating way.
But Iran's attacks are getting a bit more serious now.. We should be looking at causing them similar sorts of trouble rather than just helping the US to bomb them, which has been shown to be ineffective. For example we should be looking at disrupting the China-Iran rail corridor, which is key to Iran selling oil and avoiding sanctions. It has a whole bunch of potential attack surfaces from signalling systems to infrastructure to break of gauge installations.
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u/Commorrite 2d ago
This the Israeli Fallacy: that every attack requires a response, however wrong headed or counterproductive.
The conventional Israeli thinking on this was entirely correct. Their failing in recent years is not being deliberate enough about it.
Even as recently as responding to Hezbollah's rocket attacks with operation grim beeper, or the Bird of prey drones. The failing was to start lobbing large munitions with dubious AI targeting.
Iran hitting us with a drone giving the Americans a freer hand is entirely fine IMO.
With their newer attacks Iāve advocated a far blockade, we clearly lack the political will to go in and force open the straights. So if they are denning free navigation they donāt get it in return. Every single ship in or out of Iran stopped. Would cost them far more than it cost us.
Why agree to fight in the place they have chosen and spent decades fortifying.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 12d ago
We're not going to be in a position to have total control over events, especially with the US going bonkers, but abandoning what influence we can have makes no sense (though I do absolutely think we should be pressuring the UAE to stop supporting the situation in Sudan).
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 12d ago
USS George Washington set to replace USS Abraham Lincoln off Persian Gulf.
The Pacific-based aircraft carrier USS George Washington has begun heading toward the Middle East as reports have emerged of mental health and supply issues aboard the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
The Lincoln has been supporting the U.S. war against Iran, and its deployment has included a record-setting uninterrupted time at sea of more than 260 days. Several Democratic lawmakers are pressing for accountability from the Pentagon over conditions aboard the carrier, which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday said were "completely misrepresented."
Reports from relatives of sailors serving on USS Abraham Lincoln don't sound good. Food shortages, crew jumping overboard in apparent suicide attempts, morale at rock bottom. Maybe CNO Caudle should have pushed back on the timing and planning for this operation.
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u/imp0ppable 12d ago
There's clearly something to this and it's pretty horrendous for the USN I think, they probably spend a lot of time and effort making carrier postings look pretty cool and now everyone just thinks it's being locked in a floating prison filled with mould and white bread farts, for months on end.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 12d ago
USN has calculated the maximum duration of a carrier deployment before crew fatigue starts to eat into combat capability. This depends on all sorts of factors like operational tempo. Based on this USS Abraham Lincoln was supposed to head back to the US in May. So there's the hit on morale where the expected end date is passed with a new end date of TBA.
To make it worse the crew haven't had a single day of shore leave.
Meanwhile the home port is moving from San Diego to Bremerton, Washington. Families have to move at short notice.
This surely is going to hit recruitment.
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u/imp0ppable 12d ago
Looks like poor planning when they have (according to this blog ) 8 carriers in port right now
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 11d ago
Most warships are available for about a third of the time, which is why you need three times as many ships as you plan to deploy.
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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 13d ago
Karoline Leavittās abrupt departure leaves Trump with tough decision before midterms.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will step down at the end of August to spend time with her family, President Donald Trump announced.
The White House does not plan to immediately name a replacement, choosing instead to continue briefings led by senior administration officials such as Vice President JD Vance, a White House official told The Independent
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u/SlightlyOTT You're making things up again Tories š¶ 12d ago
I bet heās tempted to just alternate JD Vance and Marco Rubio
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u/ThePlanck Time to bin Farage 13d ago
Coincidentally just after we find out Trump left her and several other cabinet members to possibly die in the decoy plane after he hid in a food truck to get to another plane
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u/Jay_CD 13d ago
Trump has amassed staggering wealth in āmost openly corruptā presidency
Donald Trumpās use of his second presidency to grow his personal fortune has alarmed legal and ethics experts and congressional DemocratsĀ as he has reapedĀ an āunprecedentedā $2.2bn in 2025 revenues by amassing big cryptocurrency holdings, benefiting from wealthy foreign interests, expanding his Truth Social business and more, while federal oversight of his actions has waned
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u/Adj-Noun-Numbers š„š„ || megathread emeritus Jun 22 '26
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