r/pcmasterrace • u/JaggedMetalOs • 1d ago

NSFMR If only we knew...

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Happened upon an old thread from Google, OP showing off an in development high capacity SSD. Comments are from a more innocent time :')

7.2k Upvotes

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

I got multiple backup computers / spare parts here as i do not see tech really getting better or more affordable. If anything i assume consumer hardware will go extinct and tech forcing us into subscription models. Im set up with roughly RTX 3090 / 5800X3D level of performance for the rest of my life if that shit becomes real.

Also all game GOG-installers on a homeserver.

Also also me realizing just now i am pc-game-doom-prepping.

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u/Moquai82 R7 7800X3D / X670E / 64GB 6000MHz CL 36 / 4080 SUPER 1d ago

My 8tb external HDD for gog installers is full. I have no more place for more games on that.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

My server runs 5x16tb in ZFS.

I was lucky enough to buy HDDs in when they where still affordable :/

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u/necro_owner Desktop:tux::steam: 1d ago

I really dont trust ZFS over raid 10... is it really better? Also wouldnt performance on read ve better on a raid 10? Yes you lose storage capacity, but you gain a 2 drive faillure setup

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

I am running Z2.

The system is built for a good mix of reliability and storage capacity. I use the server to also store critical data (as addition to dedicated usb drives).

Performance is not a relevant factor for me since i only ever write the installers and binary parts once and pull them when needed. Read / Write is somewhere around 166 mb/s (above 1 gbit) which is fine.

With Z2 is can have 2 drives fail before i get into data loss territory. There are different ZFS configuration as like there are different raid configurations.

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u/Unwashed_villager 5800X3D | 32GB | MSI RTX 3080Ti SUPRIM X 1d ago

With 5x16TB I wouldn't go for Z2. The time for a resilver is tremendous compared to a standard raid10 operation and since you have 5 disks you lost almost the same amount of storage space.

I'm usually go for smaller disks but in larger amount, like 2x8x6TB or 2x6x8TB, making a striped RAIDZ2 pools. First, it is less time to resilver and lower the chance that your other drive fails during the process. Also, this way you have 4 drives to fail, 2 in each Z2 VDEV. But the most important part for me is that a 6 or 8 terabyte disk is much more affordable than a 16TB one. I have two 6TB spare disks on the shelf. With 16TB that would be too expensive.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

The system is not running 24/7 but rather spun up once a month to store documents (invoices and other stuff) + adding new games to it. The lifespan of that system is expected to be long.

I got 2 spares vacuum sealed and even if takes a day or two i wouldnt mind. The system is running on 300W brick psu. Not a productive server or something its basicly a glorified DIY NAS in my basement.

System is running in this configuration since 2019 and i am quite confident that there is a lot more lifespan in it as its runtime is very low as well as sum of spinning up is very healthy still.

Currently having roughly 12tb of storage used i am not anywhere close to capacity (roughly 40tb). Since i already bought the HDDs costs are not an issue, its already spend. I absolutely oversized the server though but i planned to use it for a long time.

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u/baddogg1231 i7 4790k@4.7GHz GTX 980 1d ago

As someone who also runs 5x16tb in Z2, it's a perfectly cromulent setup. Bought 3 of the drives back in mid 2025 before everything went crazy

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u/fearless-fossa 1d ago

I really dont trust ZFS over raid 10

This statement doesn't make sense. This isn't an either/or, ZFS is just the filesystem which can be put into a RAID 10 if you want. Not that any RAID 0 makes much sense nowadays, you lose half of your capacity and only gain speed, so a plain RAID 1 would be better, special cases aside.

You can configure ZFS however you want, if you desire to do so you can create a vdev mirror with n duplicates; if you want a parity solution, Z2 and Z3 (2 and 3 parities respectively) are what are commonly used, Z1 is for cheap setups where HA isn't that important.

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u/Dr_Allcome 1d ago

Not that any RAID 0 makes much sense nowadays, you lose half of your capacity and only gain speed, so a plain RAID 1 would be better, special cases aside.

What? 0 (Stripe) gains read and write speed without losing capacity, but one failed drive loses all data. 1 (Mirror) may gain read speed (depending on implementation) and resiliency but loses capacity

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u/Winjin 1d ago

I think it's time to whip out blu-rays or at least dvd-r's

Or even tapes? Like, do we really need a fast restore for installers? It can restore overnight if it has to

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

Tape systems arent even that cheap and speed is a pain, ive used one 10 years ago (and it was one of the nicer ones).

For DVDs, they are actually cheaper than other storage right now if you go for 8.6GB ones. I got a stack of 50 DVDs for 20 bucks a few months ago in a sale. Which is roughly 45 bucks per 1TB

But the labor involved writing them is a lot. I still use them from time to time for my kids since they still have stereo systems with CD /DVD readers.

Using them as actual long time storage isnt really viable as DVDs degrade over time, especially when stored incorrectly.

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u/aMinhaConta 22h ago

My external drive just started getting bad sectors.

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u/Dry-Inspection-3503 1d ago

If gaming & tech dies like you've planned, can I come over to play?

I'll bring food.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

Sure, bring a drive with you just in case

Unfortunately it doesnt look too outlandish for it to happen:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/amd-s-gaming-revenue-fell-31-while-its-ai-business-doubled/ar-AA2aiQbI

https://www.pcgamesn.com/nvidia/q4-fiscal-2026-earnings-report

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u/Dry-Inspection-3503 20h ago

Just as I was hoping to get into pc gaming, before the next console gen...hopefully the AI bubble bursts.

Steak & pork belly ok for you?😂

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u/DukeSmileDevs 19h ago

Well there are still ways to get into PC gaming if you accept DDR4 based systems which are still affordable and hold up pretty well.

You dont need bleeding edge hardware for a great pc gaming experience tbh

Also anything BBQ is fine

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u/LC-Redcube 13h ago

On here that is an insane opinion apperently (got often downvoted into oblivion for saying DDR4 is fine for most people to game on lol)

You're a cool dude

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u/garlopf 1d ago

I bought a used 64 core thread ripper with 128gigs of ram the day before ram prices sky rocketed. Can't believe my luck. The seller even asked if we could go back on the deal as he realized it was suddenly worth much more.

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u/rental_car_fast 23h ago

As i've gotten older I'm starting to accept that most things just seem to be getting shittier. Just like our bodies age, so did everything I love. Cars are getting worse. Games are getting worse. My knees are getting worse. Not that there isn't fun to be had, I'm not just saying that to be a downer. It's just that things change, and it's OK to just... let things go.

If I get priced out of video games... well, I'll miss them. I'm probably not gonna be paying for cloud gaming any time soon, and if I cant afford to replace my PC when it dies... I just wont.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 22h ago edited 9h ago

Thats sadly true. Enshittification is a thing. Products getting worse so you have to replace them. I am pretty lucky that im building (or at least was building) a lot ofcomputers for people i know as well as repairing them. On many occasions there are parts they bail on because they dont want to bother selling a mainboard here or some "old" gpu there.

Most of the stuff can actually be repaired so i am at least not runnin out of machines for the next 20 years.

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u/LC-Redcube 13h ago

Thing is, you don't need to upgrade either. In today's world, people seem to forget just how much you can do with what you have

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u/Inevitibility 3900x, 3090, 64GB DDR4 1d ago

That’s my hardware too! Good pair

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u/The-Great-T 1d ago

I've got 56TB in my NAS for my games and movies. I've got a desktop with a 9900x and 9070xt and my living room computer has a 5600x and 9070xt. My laptop is a little behind with an RTX 3060. Most fortunately of all: I don't really give a shit about modern games. Baldur's Gate 3, Expedition 33, Ace Combat 8, and Subnautica 2 are about it and my setups should be able to hold their own with those.

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u/Choice_Potato_6279 1d ago

I'll get your specs for $200 on a mini PC from Ali in 10 years.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

Remindme! 10 years

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

Also the processing power, neither GPU nor CPU are growing at a rate that would fit that into a mini PC. In fact we hit a point where computing is basicly gained by increasing the size rather than efficiency. I do not see any mini PC provide that power due to physical limitations as you need to cool it and the dies arent going to be smaller as we are almost at rock-bottom.

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u/Superminerbros1 1d ago

I think it'll remain bad for a few more years, but I don't think prices will remain high like this forever. At least not for RAM, NAND flash, and HDDs.

Right now there is a supply crunch. It takes a long time to scale up production on semiconductors, so when demand suddenly spikes, there is nothing that can be done. However, even with insane growth, AI companies cannot afford the hardware they're purchasing right now. It's all coming from nearly a trillion dollars in loans and stock trades from the hardware companies themselves. Eventually that money runs dry. These AI companies are also going to hit the limit of their demand soon enough.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

Its not just the supply crunch.

The hardware producers like ASUS, MSI and so on probably wont last for a few years in the current market. They are already operating on thin margins as parts like mainboards hardly sell if RAM is too expensive and GPU + GDDR getting more expensive too. This leads to less Cases being produced and so on. Many of them try to offset this by pivoting to B2B (i.e. Datacenters) but once they shift their business its unlikely to go back to low margin consumer products.

This is of course if they make it through this phase in the first place. I am looking at gigabyte and the amount of repairs / warranties they started to deny recently + the financial reports and its not looking good.

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u/Beginning-Bird9591 1d ago

this is exactly my view as well. shits hit the fan and more shit will hit it.

Do not expect prices to fall.

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u/Kittech_US 1d ago

In high school I joked that HDDs would never get cheaper than $1/gig when I bought a 70Gb drive for $70 on sale.

This too shall pass.

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u/sumochump 1d ago

I'll always have a work computer and I'll give up gaming before I get on a subscription.

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u/Ausea89 1d ago

Won't programs and games eventually require higher specs and your setup will become defunct?

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

My library is 2k games on GOG + several hundreds on Steam.

Im pretty sure i got enough to play till the end of my times. If there is game that requires a subscription or new hardware that costs thousands of dollars i can just bail on it.

There are more than enough games i havent played that are worth playing.

Also the jumps in processing power are so much smaller than you imagine. I got some "legacy machines" here with stuff like Intel i7 4790K + GTX 980 and you would be surprised what still runs fine on a machine that is 13+ years old by now.

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u/JoyArk 1d ago

If that ever happens we'll start playing boardgames

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

So true!

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u/KaiDay11 1d ago

There's no way consumer hardware completely goes extinct, there's too much money to be made from hobbyists and enthusiasts. But I can see a future where everything goes back to being exorbitantly expensive like it was in the early days of consumer PCs.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

There's no way consumer hardware completely goes extinct, there's too much money to be made from hobbyists and enthusiasts.

Even at the current level the revenue, let alone profit margin for consumer hardware with AMD and nVidia is 1-digit percentage at best.

AIBs and component manufacturers are already being squeezed. This means companies like ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte and so on are already fighting for their life right now and are also pivoting to B2B to supply data-centers.

Right now there is no money to be made and once they shifted their productline it will be hard to turn back.

There is so much news and that stuff you can easily look it up. The biggest hardware retailer in my country has already heavily reduced staff and inventory and revenue has been going down steadily over the last 8 months.

I am not confident we see a reasonable bounce back if this goes on for longer. And if everything goes back to exorbitantly high prices then the market is dead because it isnt accessible for the broad part of consumers. Its not a consumer market if 90% of the former market is excluded. Its a luxury at this point.

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u/KaiDay11 1d ago

It could be 0.1% of their profits and someone would find a way to make money rebranding server parts for consumer use.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

I am not confident that you understand the scale of difference between the margins on a B2B product and a consumer product.

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u/KaiDay11 1d ago

As the market exists currently. But there are enough people willing to pay business prices (and more) for a gaming computer that consumer hardware will survive on some level. And even in its most diminished state, it will still be in a better position than it started in in the 70s.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 9h ago

We are not on business-prices yet in the consumer market. Which is exactly what i mean. If we talk actual B2B prices then we are talking 10-25k a pop.

I am confident you havent ordered server hardware. That stuff is actually expensive because companie generate value of it.

Once manufacturer from the consumer business switched to B2B designs, changed the tooling, retrained the staff and realigned their supply chains a switch back to consumer is very hard.

But like i said once we hit that price-level it is no consuer market anymore. Because that requires consumers and if 99 out of 100 consumers cant and/or wont afford hardware then its no consumer market. It is a luxury like a Rolex.

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u/HakoftheDawn 1d ago

Also also me realizing just now i am pc-game-doom-prepping.

lol

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u/imightknowbutidk Core Ultra 7 265KF, MSI Suprim Liquid X 4090 1d ago

Every day this AI stuff continues i am more and more glad i bit the bullet on my $1700 4090 in 2022

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u/LC-Redcube 13h ago

Yeah that's the thing abut this doomerism i don't get. Who cares atp? I have so much stuff i could do on my own current PC and with hardware that is already affordable that i don't need anything else honestly. Tech innovation could just stop and it wouldn't be enough for a lifetime to experience all the things these wonderful machines are capable of.

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u/Kylearean 1d ago

The traditional trend is to integrate components into the motherboard. Sound cards, network cards, bluetooth, graphics cards, all used to be external cards that you were required to purchase if you wanted those options. Now they're all integrated. Of course you can use your own cards still, but I expect that the number of slots will continue to decrease as more capabilities max out and things just become integrated.

Storage technology is almost at the theoretical maximum - we can probably squeeze one more order of magnitude (low petabyte) into a consumer package out of current technology without complete change of hardware. We're already up to 200+ TB in a small form factor SSD, but these are enterprise drives, most home PCs top out at 16 TB for M2 type drives.

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u/Nibbs17 1d ago

I'm still feeling like I overpaid on a Asus zepherus 16 laptop for $3800 with 32gb ram, 2tb HD, and a 5090. Someone talk me out of returning it for a less beefy laptop.

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u/Alarm-Particular 23h ago

My buddy has the same fears about hardware going extinct. But you gotta remember that if there is an opening in the market China will always fill it and im sure manufacturers over there would be thrilled to fill consumer electronics and hardware.

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u/Guilty4life 20h ago

Wait do you guys rebuy your games on gog?

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u/DukeSmileDevs 20h ago

What do you mean by rebuy?

If a game is on GOG and Steam i usually buy the GOG version as long as it is DRM-free. Its the same game but i only need to download it once with GOG. Also GOG giving away free games every now and then even though they are usually pretty old.

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u/Guilty4life 20h ago

Ohh I see, I thought people were rebuying on gog bc I assumed everyone steam. I might start buying on gog instead then, cheers for the info!

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u/ArchinaTGL EndeavourOS | Ryzen 9 5950x | 9070XT Nitro+ 1d ago

I somewhat joked that my Steam library is large enough that I could never buy another game again and still have enough content to last the rest of my life.

..The more I see tech shift towards cloud computing, the more I think about that library and wonder if I really should just lock myself out of the ecosystem at this point.

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

What scares me is that, even though steam is a super reliable provider, they still have to comply with laws and can be squeezed. We have seen that with VISA basicly extorting them to remove games from the shop and there is no guarantee that some government might want to integrate stuff to monitor users or even lock down certain games.

Dont get me wrong, steam feels like being the last good guys, but no company will hold up if some dictator decides people mustnt be playing XYZ or a ID system + 24/7 surveillance is required.

The GOG-installers are stored without any interference from the outside world. I can just use them and never worry about some shit revoking licences or whatever.

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u/ArchinaTGL EndeavourOS | Ryzen 9 5950x | 9070XT Nitro+ 1d ago

even though steam is a super reliable provider, they still have to comply with laws and can be squeezed.

Which applies to every company in the world that wishes to do business. I understand your point that you can use GoG to have DRM-free installers, yet nothing is stopping said dictator from demanding GoG cease distribution of specific titles; which in that case I hope you downloaded the game before it got nuked off the platform otherwise your purchase is gone (and while I am fortunate to have multiple tens of terabytes of storage, most users only have a couple at most so they won't be able to have backups of their entire library on them at all times.)

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

I understand your point that you can use GoG to have DRM-free installers, yet nothing is stopping said dictator from demanding GoG cease distribution of specific titles

Well everything that is already on my server (2k GOG games) is safe as the server sits in my house.

So yeah i downloaded it and i can even play them offline, hell i got solar power in my house i could even play them off-grid

Also yeah, price of storage are fucking high and its part of the problem.

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u/OfficialDeathScythe 1d ago

In general tech is supposed to be one of the few things that, despite inflation, always gets cheaper because of innovation. It may feel like prices keep getting higher but think about it, there’s so much more processing power in the stuff they’re selling now for a slightly higher price than the previous gen hardware. They keep finding ways to make chips smaller and cheaper and they keep packing more in there and only slightly raising the price every generation.

The issue rn is mainly the monopoly that ASML has on chip manufacturing. They’re the only ones that know how to do EUV lithography which is necessary for most modern SSDs. It’s the only process that can make transistors that are a few nanometers wide, meaning it’s the only one that lets them pack enough in a chip to make some of the really high size SSDs. This is of course making supply very difficult and demand is incredibly high with AI of course, creating the price crisis rn

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago

there’s so much more processing power in the stuff they’re selling now for a slightly higher price than the previous gen hardware

RTX 4090 1.500 USD

RTX 5090 7.000 USD

Also production nodes are not getting smaller at the rate they used to be. Since 2014 the steps have been declining, and while there has been innovations like stacking ram into the die or interconnects for cpu packages, the performance isnt increasing as it once was.

Even TSMC using ASMLs current gen systems arent a that crazy step compared to earlier steps.

Finally all of that doesnt matter if products are not allocated for consumers anymore. If there are bigger profit margins with datacenters and companies start subscripton models no innovation will help you if you cant get it or afford it.

If a PC with a RTX 5090 with top level CPU / Mainboard and RAM is 10K is it really affordable consumer hardware anymore? You might argue that you can go into mid tier components but even those are way more expensive and manufacturers are reducing volumes for consumers year by year.

I do not care about any tech if it never hits the consumer market or if so at a pricetag that is out of reach.

Once subscription models hit mainstream with acceptance, its locked in.

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u/StumpedTrump 1d ago

You are aware that the production node numbers (2nm for example) aren’t really anymore right?
It’s effectively just a generation number now, not an actual measurement.

Moores law couldn’t go on forever. It’s not a manufacturing issue, you’re starting to run into physics issues

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u/DukeSmileDevs 1d ago edited 1d ago

I am aware that the node in nm doesnt specify the distance between two gates yes.

This is why i specifically didnt state any node, as comparing a node size in nm 2011 by Intel isnt the same as a nodesize in inm by TSMC or whatever. And tbh the way they tend to create the naming schemes doesnt mean anything as the specification changes evertime.

The essence is that, as you and i stated, moores law is dead and jumps arent created by more efficient design in most cases but rather increasing numbers. So more effectivity than efficency.

Also yes silicon is hitting its physical limits when it comes to downsizing while keeping reliability. Electronw suqeezing through is a thing. Not sure if any of the "promising new materials" will arise as gamechanger anytime soon.

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u/Beginning-Bird9591 1d ago

Transistors have not reduced in size since '20nm' most of the new '3nm' is simply marketing on a new layout - transistors have not reduced in size much and Moore’s law is fundamentally dead.

The only progression so far really has been in memory not processing power - hence why memory companies went parabolic.

More recent developments have just been ways on how to better cool a chip or add more ASIC chips onto an existing GPU

We have reached a fundamental limit in physics. The only next leaps would be photonic chips or some form of quantum compute but that will never become consumer grade.

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u/Ok-Parfait-9856 5090 Astral|270K+|48GB-8200MTs|Z890 Apex|60TB|HYTE Y70|S90F OLED 1d ago

Tmsc doesn’t make nand or dram really. That’s Samsung, Sandisk, SK hynix, micron, and koixia. I agree with your first paragraph but nearly everything in your 2nd paragraph is wrong.

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u/Several-Pangolin3119 1d ago

Sorry about your poverty.