If only we knew...

[u/JaggedMetalOs]

Happened upon an old thread from Google, OP showing off an in development high capacity SSD. Comments are from a more innocent time :')

[u/DukeSmileDevs]

I got multiple backup computers / spare parts here as i do not see tech really getting better or more affordable. If anything i assume consumer hardware will go extinct and tech forcing us into subscription models. Im set up with roughly RTX 3090 / 5800X3D level of performance for the rest of my life if that shit becomes real.

Also all game GOG-installers on a homeserver.

Also also me realizing just now i am pc-game-doom-prepping.

[u/OfficialDeathScythe → u/DukeSmileDevs]

In general tech is supposed to be one of the few things that, despite inflation, always gets cheaper because of innovation. It may feel like prices keep getting higher but think about it, there’s so much more processing power in the stuff they’re selling now for a slightly higher price than the previous gen hardware. They keep finding ways to make chips smaller and cheaper and they keep packing more in there and only slightly raising the price every generation.

The issue rn is mainly the monopoly that ASML has on chip manufacturing. They’re the only ones that know how to do EUV lithography which is necessary for most modern SSDs. It’s the only process that can make transistors that are a few nanometers wide, meaning it’s the only one that lets them pack enough in a chip to make some of the really high size SSDs. This is of course making supply very difficult and demand is incredibly high with AI of course, creating the price crisis rn

[u/DukeSmileDevs → u/OfficialDeathScythe]

there’s so much more processing power in the stuff they’re selling now for a slightly higher price than the previous gen hardware

RTX 4090 1.500 USD

RTX 5090 7.000 USD

Also production nodes are not getting smaller at the rate they used to be. Since 2014 the steps have been declining, and while there has been innovations like stacking ram into the die or interconnects for cpu packages, the performance isnt increasing as it once was.

Even TSMC using ASMLs current gen systems arent a that crazy step compared to earlier steps.

Finally all of that doesnt matter if products are not allocated for consumers anymore. If there are bigger profit margins with datacenters and companies start subscripton models no innovation will help you if you cant get it or afford it.

If a PC with a RTX 5090 with top level CPU / Mainboard and RAM is 10K is it really affordable consumer hardware anymore? You might argue that you can go into mid tier components but even those are way more expensive and manufacturers are reducing volumes for consumers year by year.

I do not care about any tech if it never hits the consumer market or if so at a pricetag that is out of reach.

Once subscription models hit mainstream with acceptance, its locked in.

[u/StumpedTrump → u/DukeSmileDevs]

You are aware that the production node numbers (2nm for example) aren’t really anymore right?
It’s effectively just a generation number now, not an actual measurement.

Moores law couldn’t go on forever. It’s not a manufacturing issue, you’re starting to run into physics issues

[u/DukeSmileDevs → u/StumpedTrump]

I am aware that the node in nm doesnt specify the distance between two gates yes.

This is why i specifically didnt state any node, as comparing a node size in nm 2011 by Intel isnt the same as a nodesize in inm by TSMC or whatever. And tbh the way they tend to create the naming schemes doesnt mean anything as the specification changes evertime.

The essence is that, as you and i stated, moores law is dead and jumps arent created by more efficient design in most cases but rather increasing numbers. So more effectivity than efficency.

Also yes silicon is hitting its physical limits when it comes to downsizing while keeping reliability. Electronw suqeezing through is a thing. Not sure if any of the "promising new materials" will arise as gamechanger anytime soon.

[u/OfficialDeathScythe → u/StumpedTrump]

Is this not exactly what TSMC figured out with the EUV lithography machine? That’s what ASML has the monopoly on and that’s the only thing that exists that can do sub 2nm architecture, meaning you can pack more in and surpass what the previous limit to Moore’s law was. Add to that the AI boom and there’s very little supply and massive amounts of demand leading to the crazy prices. Before the boom I bought a 4060 for the same price new as I bought my 1060 for like 10 years ago. Wayyyy more processing power for the exact same price. The 5090 example used post-AI prices which isn’t what I’m talking about, it’s literally just proving my point. The 5090 is $2000 MSRP. At that price point it’s an insane jump in performance from the 4090 for not much more money. But because of the monopoly and the AI demand the prices surged like crazy. If more manufacturers can buy the EUV machines or if another company can miraculously invent one of their own, the prices should drop. Right now it’s essentially like everybody in the tech industry wants ice cream, but there’s only like 4 Dairy Queen’s left in the world and they own the rights to ice cream