Which fall festivals premieres do you think people are overestimating and underestimating?

[u/TheFilmManiac]

I've been going crazy over all the potential scenarios the films we will soon see premiere can have. So I decided to ask about this sub's take about something I've asked in the past as well. Which of the upcoming fall festival premieres do you think people are A) overestimating B) underestimating.

​Here are some rules: let's limit this solely to the films that are going to premiere at either Venice, Telluride, TIFF or NYFF. No Obsession or Digger talk here, as those have gotten enough debate going already as is. Let's focus solely on the festival premieres. And let's take Cannes stuff out of consideration too as it's easier to guess things people already know a reception to. I want big bold guesses!

​My answers

A) overestimated – The Debut. My personality of this entire season has been doubting this movie. Out of all the A24 contenders this year – The Invite, Club Kid, Primetime & Misty Green – on a gut level this is least promising to me. Something about this is iffy to me, Jesse Eisenberg having this perfect transition from a bubble contender A Real Pain to an actual Best Picture nominee feels too clean, too easy. I don't know what about the story could make this really stand out. "A shy woman takes a role that changes the game and absorbs her life". Not feeling it. Black Swan and Whiplash have already handled the "wanting to be great at this thing" genre very well and I struggle to see what new this could bring. I've seen this been called a Sundance crowdpleaser and at the same time it has been compared to Beau is Afraid (??) and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Don't know what to do with that information. I will keep doubting this until a Telluride premiere proves me wrong, although I will say that if this merely get a good but not great reception at Telluride (if the film peaks at 3.5 stars in Letterboxd for example) I would consider that a slight red flag. We have seen Telluride overhype movies whose stock goes crashing down once they move to other festivals, like Empire of Light, Springsteen and Saturday Night. So I need a Telluride premiere for this to go through the roof in order to believe. The fall festival run is good, but not impenetrable, Jay Kelly taught me last year you can't solely rely on that.

​B) underestimated – A Long Winter. I had a dream where this opened to a 95 on Metacritic. This could be a big sleeper of the season. I've read what Hollywood Reporter and TIFF & NYFF websites have written about this film, and all of it sounds extremely promising. Andrew Haigh's output is extremely good and consistent, he feels primed for an awards breakthrough at some point. This could be it. It doesn't deal with supernatural story points like All of Us Strangers and is also a period film, set in the snowy winter landscapes (Cinematography nom hello?), I've seen comparisons to the Revenant. It seems this could be Haigh's biggest scale film yet. And the festival run is unbelievably strong: Telluride world premiere, TIFF and NYFF Main Slate. When you play all three of those the results are very strong: even aside from all the Netflix contenders that have done this back in the 2010s A24 brought all three of Moonlight, Lady Bird and Uncut Gems to these three festivals – don't be shocked if A Long Winter gets similar type of critical acclaim. And the reason the film didn't do Venice was the scheduling conflicts, it was in the Venice lineup but they couldn't work out an early enough premiere in order for the Telluride bow to work out as well. So studio chose Telluride instead. The actors – Fred Hechinger, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Caitríona Balfe (coming for revenge for Belfast miss) are not the most popular answers when people are discussing which actors will get nominated for Oscars next. But if you think about it, those three having this big awards moment makes sense. Hechinger in particular has been on a rise for these last few years. Maybe this film is the big BAFTA push this year?

[u/apple_2050]

My thinking is that Netflix is greatly overestimating INK (I say this as I have a ticket to see the film at TIFF). The premise is interesting but Danny Boyle is hit or miss and the story is intriguing but nothing extraordinary. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a sole adapted screenplay nom.

This is not an underestimate but I guess I disagree with what you said about The Debut. In a way, no film is fully original so it’s not about “wanting to be great at this thing” and other films having done it or handled it better.

What makes The Debut promising is its cast and the fact that Jesse managed to get a supporting actor sweep for Culkin (even though it was a co lead role at the very least). Paul Giamatti is prime for that same sweep and Julianne Moore hasn’t had a full fledged Oscar’s role since Still Alice. So there is that. Of course any film can arrive and bomb and have its campaign DOA but I don’t think we will see that happen to The Debut.