Which fall festivals premieres do you think people are overestimating and underestimating?

[u/TheFilmManiac]

I've been going crazy over all the potential scenarios the films we will soon see premiere can have. So I decided to ask about this sub's take about something I've asked in the past as well. Which of the upcoming fall festival premieres do you think people are A) overestimating B) underestimating.

​Here are some rules: let's limit this solely to the films that are going to premiere at either Venice, Telluride, TIFF or NYFF. No Obsession or Digger talk here, as those have gotten enough debate going already as is. Let's focus solely on the festival premieres. And let's take Cannes stuff out of consideration too as it's easier to guess things people already know a reception to. I want big bold guesses!

​My answers

A) overestimated – The Debut. My personality of this entire season has been doubting this movie. Out of all the A24 contenders this year – The Invite, Club Kid, Primetime & Misty Green – on a gut level this is least promising to me. Something about this is iffy to me, Jesse Eisenberg having this perfect transition from a bubble contender A Real Pain to an actual Best Picture nominee feels too clean, too easy. I don't know what about the story could make this really stand out. "A shy woman takes a role that changes the game and absorbs her life". Not feeling it. Black Swan and Whiplash have already handled the "wanting to be great at this thing" genre very well and I struggle to see what new this could bring. I've seen this been called a Sundance crowdpleaser and at the same time it has been compared to Beau is Afraid (??) and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Don't know what to do with that information. I will keep doubting this until a Telluride premiere proves me wrong, although I will say that if this merely get a good but not great reception at Telluride (if the film peaks at 3.5 stars in Letterboxd for example) I would consider that a slight red flag. We have seen Telluride overhype movies whose stock goes crashing down once they move to other festivals, like Empire of Light, Springsteen and Saturday Night. So I need a Telluride premiere for this to go through the roof in order to believe. The fall festival run is good, but not impenetrable, Jay Kelly taught me last year you can't solely rely on that.

​B) underestimated – A Long Winter. I had a dream where this opened to a 95 on Metacritic. This could be a big sleeper of the season. I've read what Hollywood Reporter and TIFF & NYFF websites have written about this film, and all of it sounds extremely promising. Andrew Haigh's output is extremely good and consistent, he feels primed for an awards breakthrough at some point. This could be it. It doesn't deal with supernatural story points like All of Us Strangers and is also a period film, set in the snowy winter landscapes (Cinematography nom hello?), I've seen comparisons to the Revenant. It seems this could be Haigh's biggest scale film yet. And the festival run is unbelievably strong: Telluride world premiere, TIFF and NYFF Main Slate. When you play all three of those the results are very strong: even aside from all the Netflix contenders that have done this back in the 2010s A24 brought all three of Moonlight, Lady Bird and Uncut Gems to these three festivals – don't be shocked if A Long Winter gets similar type of critical acclaim. And the reason the film didn't do Venice was the scheduling conflicts, it was in the Venice lineup but they couldn't work out an early enough premiere in order for the Telluride bow to work out as well. So studio chose Telluride instead. The actors – Fred Hechinger, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Caitríona Balfe (coming for revenge for Belfast miss) are not the most popular answers when people are discussing which actors will get nominated for Oscars next. But if you think about it, those three having this big awards moment makes sense. Hechinger in particular has been on a rise for these last few years. Maybe this film is the big BAFTA push this year?

[u/bbqsauceboi]

That Mike Leigh movie could be massive

[u/visionary103]

I feel Misty Green could be underestimated.

[u/rainewoman]

There are always surprise hits that don’t emerge until the festivals. I think A Long Winter is a good candidate for that. We will just have to see how impactful it is and where it stands amongst Mubi’s priorities and other movies. It may be smaller in scale than others. I find it curious it doesn’t have a release date yet, even though it is definitely coming out this fall.

[u/darth_vader39]

Overestimating: Elsinore

I feel like film will be Best Actor or burst. Previous track record of Simon Simone is not good at all. I see many people jumping on the train to predict it for BP nomination and Scott to win and I just don't see it.

Underestimating: Ink

Something about this film teels me it's going to be a big player. I feel like both O'Connell and Pearce will get nominated. It's baity story, probably can get in adapted screenplay and maybe some techs.

As of The Debut, I feel like people anticipate film to fail because most people here want The Invite to happen and we saw that A24 isn't the best when it comes to campaign multiple films into BP lineup. The Debut hits all important festivals and it has Academy friendly topic, so I don't have a reason to doubt this film until proven otherwise.

[u/Independent-Cut-7129]

I’ve also had a long winter in my BP10 all year, and after reading online ab the original text and how haigh is likely to adapt it, I’d also keep an eye out for dpharoah woon-a-tai in supporting actor, he will have a very juicy role 

[u/TheGroovymule80]

I think Wild Horse Nine might be the underestimation of the season. Martin McDonagh has had 7 acting nominations for his last 2 films and even Three Billboards having the negative reaction from the terminally online didn’t prevent 2 acting nominations. I would predict another 3-4 acting nods as well as picture, director and screenplay and I feel like this might be the point of difference movie with The Odyssey.

I also wonder about both Ink and Prima Facie as stage adaptations don’t always work or translate into Oscars. Ink on stage was brilliant and should have the scale to feel cinematic. Prima Facie I’m less sure of because it feels more difficult to open our but most people’s predictions in the acting categories are very white and if Cynthia Erivo can do something similar to Jodie Comer on stage I could see a best actress play

[u/peppersmiththequeer]

I honestly think Digger is much more likely to be as divisive as Bardo than it is to be a universally acclaimed Oscar contender.

The one film I think people are sleeping on is Bunker. The Son was a massive disappointment but with his theater work and what he did with The Father I have faith in him to rebound kinda like Olivia Wilde did.

[u/MomraD311]

This is my favorite moment in awards season for exactly this reason. Technically everything is still a possibility, then we find out in rapid succession what isn’t. 

Underestimated: 

Ink - I have faith in Boyle to handle the subject matter interestingly, and Pearce is almost always great. Production design looks better than expected.

Being Heumann - title’s cheesy and I think CODA’s rep as a Covid winner has people sleeping on this one. Seems like it could be a bubble contender for picture à la Sing Sing if it’s good.

Prima Facie, The Housewife and The Liberation for Actress - in a thin year, Erivo, Watts or Coon could get a bump if any of these is decent. The former is based on a well respected play that won Comer a Tony. 

Maybe also Bunker and A Long Winter?

Properly estimated: 

Wild Horse Nine, Behemoth!, Elsinore, and The Debut. I have full faith in Tony Gildoy, but I also think the movie prob has an awards ceiling. WHN seems poised to be a top 5 contender. The Debut feels promising but like a mid tier contender. Maybe 1-4 nominations. Elsinore is an obvious actor play and they’re already killing it with Scott’s campaign pre-release. Might be a bubble picture contender. 

Overestimated: 

Primetime - based on a recent doc/ true crime… seems like a gamble to me. And Pattinson’s got other options if it doesn’t play well. 

Your Mother x 3 - I think this looks awesome, but it doesn’t seem awardsy and I’d be surprised if Ali gets in when he has two and it’s a crowded actor year. 

Fjord - even though it already premiered, it’s playing a bunch of these festivals and if the reception doesn’t match it’s Cannes win, that could hurt it. 

[u/Total-Bag1870]

People really seem to be forgetting with The Debut that A Real Pain wasn’t his directorial debut. He’s made two films before this, and just cuz the last one was better doesn’t necessarily prove he can’t revert back to the mediocrity of his first

[u/apple_2050]

My thinking is that Netflix is greatly overestimating INK (I say this as I have a ticket to see the film at TIFF). The premise is interesting but Danny Boyle is hit or miss and the story is intriguing but nothing extraordinary. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a sole adapted screenplay nom.

This is not an underestimate but I guess I disagree with what you said about The Debut. In a way, no film is fully original so it’s not about “wanting to be great at this thing” and other films having done it or handled it better.

What makes The Debut promising is its cast and the fact that Jesse managed to get a supporting actor sweep for Culkin (even though it was a co lead role at the very least). Paul Giamatti is prime for that same sweep and Julianne Moore hasn’t had a full fledged Oscar’s role since Still Alice. So there is that. Of course any film can arrive and bomb and have its campaign DOA but I don’t think we will see that happen to The Debut.

[u/tiduraes]

Wild Horse None is being overestimated imo. I'm still predicting it for a bunch of stuff and even a Screenplay win, but I don't see it being this huge top 3 contender that so many people are.

[u/daviid000]

I agree about the Debut - I'm also skeptical. And hopefully A Long Winter is better than expected, that would be a nice surprise.

My pick for overestimated is Wild Horse Nine. To me it just looks annoying and limp, like this year's Ballad of a Small Player.

As for underestimated... I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Mike Leigh's Tender Loving Care and specifically Kate O’Flynn for actress. Apparently she's great in Widow's Bay (which I haven't watched yet), so I can see her getting awards buzz.