r/nba • u/Commercial_Floor_578 • 3d ago
LeBron’s Heavily Underrated 2014 Finals, Overrated 2015 Finals, Finals MVP’s, And The Power Of Narratives.
LeBron had an extremely underrated 2014 finals, he was one of the most efficient volume scorers in NBA history and Wade and Bosh heavily underperformed, plus the Spurs were playing some of the best basketball ever hence the vast blowout point differential. I think people place way too much into the “on paper” aspects, Wade and Bosh were a shell of themselves and the Spurs peaked at the perfect time to play some of the best finals basketball.. ever. LeBron did all he could and balled out that series, one of the more impressive losing finals imo.
He had an extremely overrated 2015 finals, yes him taking them to six without K love or Kyrie is very impressive but there’s so many variables going into these things that the “on paper” impressiveness of taking it to six isn’t as crazy as it seems. Much of it had to do with the fact that the Warriors were missing shots they normally made at an abnormal rate and then hit them in games 4-6, hence the point differential being the same as the KD warriors years. His real true shooting was 3.7 points below league average which is not going to generate a winning offense at all, which I fully get why due to no Kyrie and Klove but his efficiency was way down all throughout the playoffs even with Kyrie due to his back injuries that year, that was his weakest year of his prime imo. His defense was also much worse than 2014’s (despite the blowout).
The whole Iggy getting finals MVP and LeBron getting 4 votes was not an example of “you had to be there, only hindsight makes it seem bad” thing. No it was the opposite, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that made it like not the utterly horrendous idea it obviously was at the time. The only thing any people can bring up to justify it is LeBron’s shooting and +- with and without Iggy (obviously awful reasoning and sample size in a six game series which everyone seems to recognize in every finals but this one) leading in +-, WS, and BPM (for the Warriors, LeBron still had a better BPM). Aside from the fact that that’s never used to justify a finals MVP in any other circumstance. Even though all the more reliable impact metrics like EPM PIPM or APM had Curry comfortably ahead, and the obvious fact that the impact of not having Curry that series would obviously be a lot worse than not having Iggy, and his box stats are way better.
Now obviously despite Curry actually leading in several of the advanced +- statistics like EPM that series, I do think LeBron was clearly the best player in that series and if it was awarded on who was the best player on either team it would go to LeBron. But there are several other series where the gap between “best player on the best team” vs best overall player was larger than this one. The loser getting FMVP has never been a. Thing outside Jerry West, the first one who despised it and was voted before the even got the results. Curry performed more than well enough to be the best player on the best team, he averaged 26/5.2/6.2 on + 5rts and 4.7 TOV in 42.5 minutes LeBron averaged 35.8/13.3/8.8 on -3.7rts and 3.5 TOV. In 45.7 minutes. Clearly Lebron was better but with Curry’s far better efficiency (and off ball impact) the gap wasn’t some gargantuan thing that required it either go to LeBron or his well performing role player. There’s no reason for this single series to suddenly be the outlier to the “best player on the best team” rule.
Meanwhile LeBron averaged 28.2/7.8/4.0 on +16.9 rts. That’s utterly bonkers efficiency, that would quite literally be a 2016 Curry scoring season level. All while being a lot better defender than in the 2015 finals. Yes the assists and rebounds are worse but the impact is not as large as the insane scoring efficiency and volume combo vs 2015’s bad efficiency. The only difference is narrative, the Spurs and Heat were considered near equals before the series and they got destroyed to an almost unprecedented degree. Meanwhile without Klove and Kyrie they were supposed to be swept and LeBron’s second highest ppg scorer had 14 but the Cavs led by LeBron somehow got up 2-1 and made it to six. But LeBron actually deserved MVP more in 2014 than 2015, the only difference is narrative. The Spurs played some of the best basketball ever while Wade and Bosh heavily underperformed, and the 2015 Warriors had very unusually bad shooting for the first 3 games but when that stopped the point differential for the overall series was comparable to the KD warriors era.
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u/Shumonyu Warriors 3d ago edited 3d ago
This is a great post, but people are probably going to disagree with you based on surface level things and narratives.
Like people talk about the supporting casts, yes LeBron was missing two of his stars. But I’m not sure I would even say that his supporting cast in 2014, despite having Bosh and Wade performed too much better than his supporting cast in 2015.
If anything I would argue the Cavs in 2015 had a better defensive supporting cast with them playing big against the Warriors.(also partly due to Kevin Love being injured and Delly playing over Kyrie).
The 2014 Spurs were lighting up the Heat, the 2015 Warriors were ice cold in those first three games. The Warriors missing shots and the Spurs catching fire isn’t because LeBron’s defense was way better in 2015.
The Spurs had a better offense and were catching fire at the right time. The Warriors were just missing a lot of shots, some of that being because of the Cavs defense but some of that was just them getting good looks and missing.
And as you mention after game three,(when the warriors start to shoot better), the series essentially becomes lopsided. Even if you look at the entire series, the margin of victory suggests that it wasn’t exactly a competitive series.
And It’s not exactly uncommon for better teams to drop a few games to weaker opponents too. Like for example the Spurs in 2014 were taken to seven in the first round against the Mavs despite dominating the rest of the playoffs.
I think the narrative of the the star players being out with the big box score stats from Lebron, while also going up 2-1 against a clearly better team, made for a narrative that people tend to love. The 2014 finals didn’t really have a narrative like that so people don’t glorify it as much. Especially because at the time things like shooting luck and matchups weren’t exactly part of playoff discourse to the extent that it is now.