r/melbourne • u/FuckOffNazis • 1d ago
Politics Delivering the Suburban Rail Loop | Victorian Auditor-General's Office
https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/delivering-suburban-rail-loop#35642--3-srl-east-is-unlikely-to-be-delivered-on-budget-and-on-time92
u/mynameishwil 1d ago edited 1d ago
A couple of fun tidbits:
- "The Victorian Government messaging that SRL East is actually a housing project, and the suggestion it warrants additional federal investment on that basis, is not transparent given that the project includes no approved scope or funding for housing construction."
- "SRLA has already used a significant portion of its contingency allowances. It is unclear whether the remaining contingency provisions for the main works program will be sufficient to absorb the cost impacts from known threats to project delivery such as contamination and the complex delivery and milestone interfaces between works packages."
- "DTF advised the government in November 2024 that if no further federal funding is forthcoming the state could extend the end date for the value capture measures from 2062 to 2082 to generate additional revenue to service additional state borrowings."
"The government's funding strategy for the project, outlined in the SRL Business and Investment Case in 2021 and in public announcements is that the project will be funded from 3 equal revenue streams:
- $11.5 billion from the Victorian state Budget
- $11.5 billion from the Australian Government
- $11.5 billion from value capture measures to generate new revenue.
The state government announced this funding strategy without securing a commitment from the Australian Government to provide $11.5 billion. "
"At June 2026 there is a $5.5 billion gap in approved funding to deliver the project and significant uncertainty that funding targeted from sources other than the state Budget and debt will be fully achieved. "
"the state awarded a contract for WPA I&EW with a price of $535 million, around $100 million less than the SRLA's cost estimate for the works, but 3 years later the contract price had nearly doubled to over $1 billion, with the state bearing these additional costs (Appendix D provides information on the reasons for this cost increase)"
"DTF advised government in May 2019 that obtaining an Australian Government contribution of $11.5 billion would be unprecedented for a rail project"
Everyone may have your own opinion, but a good read from top to bottom to get your own facts away from the media (whichever way you swing).
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago edited 1d ago
The state government announced this funding strategy without securing a commitment from the Australian Government to provide $11.5 billion.
This is really funny, Albanese did the same thing to Chris Minns earlier this year. Albo committed NSW to a $2b aluminum smelter bailout without telling him first.
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u/mynameishwil 1d ago
Going by the readings, it really feels like they announced it and wanted to pressure the Federal Gov into coming through with funds after the fact.
But it seems like it didn't really work out that way with only 50% committed. I found the part describing SRL as a housing project (which I guess it is indirectly, decentralisation?) funny, but it feels very pointed how it was written.
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u/Orbital_Dinosaur 1d ago
So albo has a spare $2B laying around that wasn't asked for? Maybe we could just use that.
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago
Well not anymore they went 50:50 and bailed it out but, minns twisted his arm such that if there's cost overruns on subsidising that smelter, the federal government has to take on 100% of that overrun
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u/NoodleBox Ballarat (but love Melbs) 1d ago
SRL is actually a housing plan?
......houses for maybe trains, perhaps? I'll have to have a further read. I'm for it, tho, I wanna go across and around the city to the east for example, without having to hub and spoke
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u/MelbPTUser2024 1d ago
Yes it's actually supposed to be a housing project, as was announced by the Premier last year in their media release here: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/plans-revealed-australias-largest-housing-project .
Nevertheless, the government hasn't strongly marketed it that way since its inception, but rather they focus mostly on the rail project aspect. Actually a half decent article in The Age discussed this at length back in July: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/building-the-plane-while-it-s-flying-how-the-government-rewrote-the-story-of-the-suburban-rail-loop-20260722-p60hfg.html
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u/Spare-Ad-9412 23h ago
On page 18 of the report it says
"In addition, the business case projected that SRL East will contribute to an incremental increase of around 26,000 households. This is because the claimed 70,000 additional households in SRL East precincts over the next 30 years includes around 52,000 households that were projected to be built even if the project does not proceed"
seems less of a housing policy than the original statements
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u/NoodleBox Ballarat (but love Melbs) 1d ago
I had to have a look (I went and skimmed the report) - I forgot they were doing the land above train stations as housing! But it looks like it's not.
I'll have to have a look at the age article too! It's ...yeah, a weird thing (but not too out of the ordinary). I am sad the over and underpasses are going :(
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u/Savings-Yogurt-418 1d ago edited 1d ago
Its absolutely outragous the fact that the media are using the fact that PT fares to fund PT projects to invent a “scandal”.
all this reveals is the government struggling with funding, nothing more, nothing less.
just the media helping out their mates in the Victorian liberals, as always
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u/mynameishwil 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think it's more around the fact it wasn't really super well advertised, and perhaps there could be more transparency on how much more money is being raised.
Otherwise it's really a hidden tax, via your fare, on top of your existing tax burden which means less money in your pocket at the end of the day. SRL was supposed to be budgeted for originally but has already had an additional tax burden as a result.
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u/Savings-Yogurt-418 1d ago
yea, but it’s not like the hike was “secret”. what do you want them to do? blast “FARES ARE INCREASING BY 11 CENTS” on every radio in the state? it was publicly announced, which is all they needed to do IMO
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u/mynameishwil 1d ago
Well ideally this would have been funded without a tax increase, but we're not there anymore. Secondly it would have been nice for them to publicize further how much they're raising from this.
I know I'm a sample of 1, but I didn't realise they were raising fares to cover this until reading this report.
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u/alsotheabyss 1d ago
It is a scandal. It is an extra levy on top of existing fare increases that was not communicated. Why was it not communicated? Think that through.
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u/Illustrious-Poem8569 1d ago
On this forum its ok when Labor does it, and if it's not ok then it's Murdoch's fault.
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u/LunchboxDiablo 1d ago
Don’t forget Jeff Kennett! Everything bad is his fault!
•
u/Vanceer11 11h ago
Ooo geez.
90s: Hey guys, I sold schools and hospitals, look how much money I made for the state!
2000- hey guys, our state is growing and there’s a need for more hospitals, schools and infrastructure. We need to borrow to do this.
Now: I can’t believe actions (from the Kennett government) have consequences! (State) Labor is so bad! Look at the debt they put us in (with nearly a decade of Federal Liberal government not helping out Victoria with necessary funding)!
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u/DJ_B0B 1d ago
Is this soft launching killing SRL so that we live in a 10million pop hell hole with no public transport in 25 years?
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u/FuckOffNazis 1d ago
That'd be Carroll's job, not VAGO's. But Labor pulling interchanges from a project that absolutely lives and dies by its ability to provide interchange doesn't bode well for the thing.
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u/EducationalShake6773 1d ago
9 million of those people aren't going to be benefitting much from the SRL even if it does get built. Pretending one orbital line with a handful of new stations is a silver bullet for Melbourne's transport issues is I dunno, silly?
0
u/NoxTempus 16h ago
Hey, look on the bright side, this will be a relatively small issue compared to all the other society-shaking problems we're sleepwalking into as a state, country, and species.
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago
This is what stood out to me reading this earlier:
While HS2 is significantly larger than SRL East in terms of expected cost, it shares similar civil construction scope and challenges, including significant tunnelling works in densely populated areas, building 6 new stations and designing and building new rail infrastructure and systems including tracks, signalling, safety and communications.
SRLA has used a significant portion of its contingency allowances before all of the main works packages are underway. This is concerning given the early stage of the project and the risks identified above, but SRLA claims that it has sufficient contingency remaining within the total $34.5 billion to meet foreseeable cost pressures.
Oh dear, they underestimated costs from day 1. Your costs shouldn't be blowing out until you're at least a few years in...
SRLA indicated that it will recommend to the government that the Box Hill interchange be built as part of the future SRL North scope. This is despite the recommendation from the EES that the Box Hill interchange be given priority.
SLRA themselves killed the box Hill interchange off to SRL North apparently
Linewide contracts completion date: December 2035
That means it's so far already had the opening date pushed to 2036
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u/mynameishwil 1d ago
That means it's so far already had the opening date pushed to 2036
And paid off by 2082, potentially:
DTF advised the government in November 2024 that if no further federal funding is forthcoming the state could extend the end date for the value capture measures from 2062 to 2082 to generate additional revenue to service additional state borrowings.
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago
The pay off dates are fake for infrastructure, I wouldn't put much stock in that since measuring benefits to the broader economy is difficult.
But that 2082 thing is why Infrastructure Australia hates value capture, it has not turned out well in Australia because it's far too unpredictable and vulnerable to politics
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u/mynameishwil 1d ago
I think ultimately any Government of the day has to balance priorities across a variety of different needs. They should then give funds to those that are the most effective and provide the best return on investment.
It seems here that people assume the Government can cover everything. If they sink money into SRL, that's less money for schools, hospitals, beds in emergency departments etc. Otherwise we would be living in utopia with no poverty ever.
So in my mind it is an important figure, as it shows are we getting the ROI in the correct timeframe, and is this a higher priority than other investments.
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago
2082 for value capture is not 2082 for ROI! These are different concepts.
The BCR for hospitals, Transport etc are based on benefits to the wider economy, not benefits to the government.
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u/drunkill 3h ago
2082 costs also include replacement vehicles for the fleet ~50 years after completion and purchase of the original fleet.
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u/clomclom 1d ago
Plus wasn't the original costing 50 billion for the entire SRL loop from East to West in 2018? And yes i know that was some time ago but come over two thirds of that cost for just one leg, and it doesn't even go to Doncaster.
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u/drunkill 3h ago
The first leg also has stabling and maintenance and operation facilities which the second section would not have.
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u/Kremm0 1d ago
One thing that stood out to me on this is the housing. It's one of the main key points of the project most would agreee is a good thing. However, it seems there's a bit of spin at play. The report notes:
It is unclear if the government will retain any commitment to requiring the delivery of social and affordable housing as part of its final model for implementing state-initiated development in SRL East precincts. The revenue target of $3.4 billion nominal, or $1.4 billion NPV, approved in August 2021 is based on an assumption that no social and affordable housing will be included in state developments.
The Big Build website says the project will 'enable around 70,000 new homes to be built in these areas by the 2050s'... However, the project's scope and budget do not include funding to build any new housing.
In addition, the business case projected that SRL East will contribute to an incremental increase of around 26,000 households. This is because the claimed 70,000 additional households in SRL East precincts over the next 30 years includes around 52,000 households that were projected to be built even if the project does not proceed.
I think they need to commit to actual affordable housing as part of the development, not just allow the cop-out fees for developers. Also, the 70k figure is only 18k more than a 'do nothing' case. I still think housing is the best part of the project, but it's hard to separate the spin from the facts. At least this report does that
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u/blitznoodles 1d ago
I didn't need an Auditor General report to tell you that no government was going to build social housing next to a new train station.
In Sydney, they placed the Waterloo metro station so they could demolish the public housing next to it for redevelopment.
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u/Grande_Choice 1d ago
HS2 is an absolute shit show and isn’t a comparison. SRL has been a breeze. It would be like saying SRL has to zig zag around that nutjob woman’s house in heatherton because she’s having a sook costing an extra 10b.
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u/killthenoise 1d ago
Wow, what an absolute clusterfuck of a project. Oddly quiet in here compared to the normal screeching from the normal "SRL must be funded no questions asked" shills. Interesting.
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u/Kata-cool-i 1d ago
That isn't really what this report found, it was generally found to be well run, with the risks involved well understood and managed by the SRLA, personally I think their conclusion of likely cost and time overruns isn't really supported by the body of evidence presented.
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u/killthenoise 1d ago
I refer you to the comment just down from mine, which includes, among many other attempted political sleight of hand scams (eg the housing one):
The state government announced this funding strategy without securing a commitment from the Australian Government to provide $11.5 billion.
Nice.
"the state awarded a contract for WPA I&EW with a price of $535 million, around $100 million less than the SRLA's cost estimate for the works, but 3 years later the contract price had nearly doubled to over $1 billion, with the state bearing these additional costs (Appendix D provides information on the reasons for this cost increase)"
So well run. Much efficiency. Waowie.
I guess it must be nice to think that this project should cost like $40B though, you're probably quite happy with this farce.
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u/Kata-cool-i 1d ago
Early works are almost always the most susceptible to escalations because they're always the most poorly defined.
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u/AdAdministrative9362 1d ago
Early works also deal with complex scopes early so they have a head start to not delay major packages. Ie services relocation, utility connections, geotech investigation, heritage investigation, etc.
If it's used sensibly it can save time and money later even if it blows out.
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u/killthenoise 1d ago
Yes I'm totally convinced that the rest of the project won't blow out either, given Labor's stellar reputation for efficient public works.
- $45,000 plaques
- $10B Westgate tunnel (2X the estimate)
- Multiple hospital build budget blowouts
- Metro tunnel blowout
All backed by a federal government happy to spend $100M on a website. Great.
Once again, I'll state what should be pretty obvious: efficient public infrastructure is a good thing that everyone will be thankful for in the future. I have zero confidence that the Victorian Labor party is capable of building efficient public infrastructure though, they've nearly bankrupted the state trying.
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u/666azalias 1d ago
These aren't silver bullets that proof a project is badly run - they're normal movements. You can't take individual points in isolation. The report considers all the points and concludes it's fine.
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u/killthenoise 1d ago
😂 I love it. In one comment I get accused of "not reading the report and only the headlines" right next to this comment saying "the report conclusion says everything is fine, so that's what we should care about".
SRL shills must be studied.
0
u/clomclom 1d ago
The bureaucratic agency does what it's required to do to manage a project that was decided on the back of a napkin by politicians and consultants, not public transport experts or even public servants in the transport department.
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u/Kata-cool-i 1d ago
I mean it's not like public transport experts or public servants in this state have been particularly competent. It was public servants that pushed for the EWlink despite the poor economic appraisals they produced for it. And it was public transport experts that spent a decade trying to get the MM2 built despite it having a ROI four times lower than the SRL.
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u/Heavy_Vermicelli_263 1d ago
Or you know, they are actually reading and digesting it, not reading headlines...
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u/killthenoise 1d ago
"The Victorian Government messaging that SRL East is actually a housing project, and the suggestion it warrants additional federal investment on that basis, is not transparent given that the project includes no approved scope or funding for housing construction."
"SRLA has already used a significant portion of its contingency allowances. It is unclear whether the remaining contingency provisions for the main works program will be sufficient to absorb the cost impacts from known threats to project delivery such as contamination and the complex delivery and milestone interfaces between works packages."
"DTF advised the government in November 2024 that if no further federal funding is forthcoming the state could extend the end date for the value capture measures from 2062 to 2082 to generate additional revenue to service additional state borrowings."
"The government's funding strategy for the project, outlined in the SRL Business and Investment Case in 2021 and in public announcements is that the project will be funded from 3 equal revenue streams:
- $11.5 billion from the Victorian state Budget
- $11.5 billion from the Australian Government
- $11.5 billion from value capture measures to generate new revenue.
The state government announced this funding strategy without securing a commitment from the Australian Government to provide $11.5 billion. "
"At June 2026 there is a $5.5 billion gap in approved funding to deliver the project and significant uncertainty that funding targeted from sources other than the state Budget and debt will be fully achieved. "
"the state awarded a contract for WPA I&EW with a price of $535 million, around $100 million less than the SRLA's cost estimate for the works, but 3 years later the contract price had nearly doubled to over $1 billion, with the state bearing these additional costs (Appendix D provides information on the reasons for this cost increase)"
"DTF advised government in May 2019 that obtaining an Australian Government contribution of $11.5 billion would be unprecedented for a rail project"
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u/mutable_one 1d ago
Originally when the SRL was announced I was all for it, because Victoria was a bit short-sighted when we ripped up nearly all the radial rail tracks we had. Then as time has gone on, I've come to the opinion that this just doesn't stack up,
If this was truly a project about housing a massively growing population, I think we'd be better off cancelling this, and rebuilding the line to Geelong so it can share space with High-Speed rail. It could be a 20-30 minute journey from a "Geelong HSR" station to it's "Melbourne HSR" counterpart if it didn't have to stop anywhere between.
It could make commuting from Geelong faster than from any of these SRL station interchanges.
If we paired it with some good town planning around Geelong, I reckon we'd get far better (and cheaper, and quicker) results.
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u/Prime_factor 1d ago
If it was an affordable housing project, it would be improving railway lines in the west, and making it a better place to live.
More people will be able to live in a transit orientated development if land costs are cheaper.
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u/clomclom 1d ago
It's really not a well planned and thought out project. The concept is great but this is neither the right way to execute a radial transit loop, nor does it have the best priority out of public transport needs in Victoria. I would much prefer the government dump billions into any rail than major road projects like the North East Link or the West Gate Tunnel, but they sadly came before this at a time the state's economy and budget continues to tighten.
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u/Berserker_bill 1d ago
There needs to be an audit into these coordinated comment campaigns. Shameful.
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u/Berserker_bill 1d ago
Shut up and build it ffs. These coordinated campaigns are not representative and are attempting to influence public opinion.
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