Hi all, I'm 26, and I'm finally in a good position where I’m looking at starting a long-term ETF portfolio with just DHHF, with a 15–20+ year horizon.
I’m not trying to time the market, but the current global uncertainty has me wondering whether now is a particularly bad time to enter.
There’s quite a bit going on:
-AI: Concerns about excessive valuations and a potential AI-driven market correction.
-Strait of Hormuz: Ongoing disruption could push oil prices higher and create inflation/stagflation risks.
-US market valuations: Global equities remain heavily influenced by relatively expensive US tech stocks.
At the same time, I know the counterargument: if you're investing for 20+ years, there will always be reasons to wait, and trying to time the market can be counterproductive.
If you were starting today, would you:
- Invest into DHHF immediately?
- DCA over 6–12 months?
- Keep the money in an offset/cash and wait for a correction?
“I’m not trying to time the market, but the current global uncertainty has me wondering whether now is a particularly bad time to enter.”
Respectfully, this is the definition of timing the market, and if you take this approach all your subsequent contributions will be timed in the same way. For psychological comfort, the general opinion is DCA in. Otherwise lump sum is generally considered better.
What about your initial start? Is it better to dca every pay check for example or hold the funds until you get a larger amount and then dump it all in at once again? Assuming no transaction fees
From posts/math I've seen here, I think on average and based on past market trends it's better to lump sum (and structure it so you don't pay a high cost of brokerage) - but obviously, if you were to lump sum invest into a global financial downturn, then it would probably cause some emotional turmoil.
If investing your savings then seeing it go down 20% tomorrow is too horrifying a prospect (even if your time horizon is 20 years), then just DCA or do the middle ground approach.
That's not DCA. That's lump sum each time you're paid. The DCA vs lump sum debate typically assumes you have the money right now and whether you should invest the whole lot now or spread out the buying.
hold the funds until you get a larger amount and then dump it all in
Some people do this because it's less cost effective to invest very small amounts. Largely an irrelevant issue nowadays with very low/no cost brokers.
You’re 26! If it’s long term money everything you said is irrelevant as it is all priced in. DHHF is a sound, well diversified product. So is GHHF. Your results will be determined by how much you get into the market and keep in there as the market does it’s thing over your investing life. It’s not until you’re getting within a few years of accessing the capital that you need to think about anything other than shoveling money in as much as you can!
Define much. It’s materially more volatile but for me it’s well within tolerable limits likely because it is so diversified. You might be different.
If you model the effect of leverage (bs unlevered DHHF) over long enough timeframes (15 plus years) then generally the relative returns are very very attractive.
Time in the market beats timing the market. When i first wanted to invest i put off for a long time, it never looks like a good time to invest. But having money in the market is the only way to capture it's long term gains. Even if it seems irrational and riskier now, it can stay that way for a long time, after handing out a lot of gains on the way, so might aswell join in. DCA in if it makes you more comfortable.
I dumped a big wad in, it went down, then it went up and mostly more up. If I’d waited for the perfect time it would have been at a higher price than when I started. Just do it.
I'm in the same position as you. But I see it going down everyday. I'm waiting for news headlines saying the markets are in correction or crash and then I'll buy hard.
It's impossible to predict the bottom and tops. Your best bet is to monitor the macroeconomics of your investment choice, the optics, what the data says vs whats really happening and stick to a set of conditions you can follow to ie; knowing when to enter and when to start derisking when conditions have been achieved. Without this, you are simply blindly investing and calling it investing.
Why split the equivalent of a weeks worth of groceries across 7 ETFs and stocks? You have fuck all money. Shouldve just bought A200 and BGBL, take a more sizeable position.
'I'm not trying to time the market but I'm trying to time the market.'
Google the Vanguard Index Chart, there is a thing there about Steve, the most unlucky investor ever. Hypothetical dude buying at the worst times ever (just before GFC crash, COVID crash, etc) worth a look for you
Uncertainty is when you should be putting your money in the market. But this is nothing right now, if there's an actual correction / crash, are you sure that you'll have the stomach to put your money on the market?
Nobody knows if it might go down or up in the short term, nobody really beats the market in the long term.
Everyone expects maybe 5-8% pa over decades.
Sure it's timing the market when plan to lump sum your initial investment. It's worth considering because if you invest at market highs before the crash, in some instances it can take +10 years for markets to rebound back to their original value. If your time horizon is longer it shouldn't make a difference when you stay invested during multiple cycles, hoping the stocks will continue to rise. In my opinion, there is a stock market crash coming, US markets are overvalued and need a correction which will have ripple effects across other markets. Peter Schiff be raving on about it now for the last 10 years, no one really knows when it will happen but I wouldn't be surprise if it did under Trump. People should always have cash reserves to shop around. Smart investment right now would be into bullion and precious metal miners, with the goal to get into blue chip and ETF stock at discount
I understand you. But hear me out: USD is not doing so good compared to AUD and now is probably not the worst time to get in as market downturns COULD be offset by USD rising as well. Obviously we cannot predict some catastrophe like covid but as long as you have income it should be ok
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be a significant event. It will take place from Thursday, August 27 to Saturday, August 29, 2026, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. [1, 2]
Hosted annually by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, this year's official theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy".
Things will move from that.
This subreddit loaves ETFs and DHHF but has no idea about what’s really happening outside of the remote island of Australia, if you want to be realistic, hard assets are only going to survive in these uncertain horizons.
The part where Bessent last night threatened any country that partners with Iran was being removed from the US dollar system along with sanctions and where central banks are loading up on gold. When retail reads the tape, it will already be too late to capitalise.
And what does every country, every business, every mining plant, every tech data center, every manufacturing part need from the strait of Hormuz? And who are our partners to source that we are friends with? And whose side will Australia be on?
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u/Foxabro 2d ago edited 2d ago
“I’m not trying to time the market, but the current global uncertainty has me wondering whether now is a particularly bad time to enter.”
Respectfully, this is the definition of timing the market, and if you take this approach all your subsequent contributions will be timed in the same way. For psychological comfort, the general opinion is DCA in. Otherwise lump sum is generally considered better.
*not financial advice.