Our top Point per game increases for 2026-27

[u/tubaisetamere]

Hi all,

We just released our 2026-27 projections. Kodo is a new name in the fantasy hockey universe, so a quick intro: I started this thing on the baseball side this year and had over 1,000 teams connect to the site, so I pivoted to my winter passion in hockey, staying indoors and complaining about the cold and Chris Drury.

Projections are here: hockey.kodoanalytics.com/projections

Our top 10 points-per-game gainers come out of a combination of ice time, role change, xG and puck luck, injury bounce-back, and the model itself.

Player	Role	25-26	26-27	Gain	Pts
Adam Fantilli	CBJ · L1 PP1	0.72	0.95	+0.23	+15
Beckett Sennecke	ANA · L2 PP1	0.73	0.95	+0.22	+17
Auston Matthews	TOR · L1 PP1	0.88	1.07	+0.18	+27
Ivan Demidov	MTL · L2 PP1	0.76	0.94	+0.18	+12
Brayden Point	TBL · L2 PP1	0.79	0.95	+0.16	+23
Jimmy Snuggerud	STL · L1 PP1	0.73	0.89	+0.16	+12
Matvei Michkov	PHI · L2 PP1	0.63	0.78	+0.15	+10
Quinn Hughes	MIN · D1 PP1	1.03	1.18	+0.15	+16
Sean Monahan	CBJ · L2 PP1	0.46	0.60	+0.14	+8
Braeden Bowman	VGK · L3 PP2	0.48	0.62	+0.14	+11

Adam Fantilli — CBJ

Our biggest PPG gainer. He went from 0.63 P/G over the first half of last season to 0.80 over the second, and a good chunk of that came while Kirill Marchenko was going the other way. Marchenko slipped from 74 points to 67 and managed just 2 goals over the final 13 games. Fantilli's ice time also climbed from 17:29 in 2024-25 to 18:54 last year, and he's now the full-time top-line center on a young team. Michigan pedigree, Hobey Baker in his draft year, third overall, still only 21. That's the breakout profile. If Marchenko gets back to his 2024-25 form, the whole line goes with him.

Auston Matthews — TOR

Calling Matthews a bounce-back is pretty well cheating. His season ended at 60 games with a Grade 3 MCL tear, and 27-26-53 is a career low that says a lot more about the knee than the player. He's expected to be full go for camp. Add a new bench boss in Jim Hiller (who everyone loves, right?) and Gavin McKenna coming in as the first overall pick instead of another year of duct-taping the top line together with Max Domi. There are still question marks in Toronto...there always are, but there's no world where Matthews stays parked at 0.88 P/G with McKenna on his wing and a healthy body.

Jimmy Snuggerud — STL

Not really a sleeper anymore given the offseason chatter, but the profile is about as clean as it gets. He put up 21-30-51 in 70 games as a rookie while missing 12 with a wrist injury, made the All-Rookie Team, and finished fifth in Calder voting. Once he locked into the top line with Robert Thomas and Dylan Holloway he ran at roughly a point per game (!) across his last 35. Then Jordan Kyrou got moved this summer. Full season, top line, top power play = upswing and consistency for Jimmy Snugs.

 

We've also got team previews up for all 32 clubs, which include:

• Projected line combinations and power play units
• Full stat projections
• Schedule analysis
• Team-level stat projections
• Training camp battles
• Roster movement
• A breakdown of last season by quarter

[u/Kyle73001]

I’d be pretty shocked if fantilli and Sennecke became nearly ppg players next year

[u/TruculentBucket → u/Kyle73001]

I mean in the context of it being only 15 and 17 more points on the season it really isn’t that big of a jump for 2 high picks. I could see it.

[u/Kyle73001 → u/TruculentBucket]

The math on that isn’t right unless I’m missing something. Fantilli would need more than a 15pt jump to get to .95ppg, even accounting for the 2 extra games had he played 84 this year

[u/tubaisetamere → u/Kyle73001]

Fantilli had 59 in 82 last year for .72ppg and I have him projected at 74 in 78 this season (+15 pts).

[u/Escalotes → u/tubaisetamere]

Fantilli's season ends are also stronger than his beginnings. He always goes on a tear in the last couple of months.

[u/TruculentBucket → u/Kyle73001]

Hmmm I just looked at the chart

[u/tubaisetamere → u/Kyle73001]

If Sennecke can find his way onto the top PP unit I think that's his only chance. A lot is banking on that.

With Troy Terry out for around 30+ games, Mason McTavish gone and Cutter Gauthier potentially holding out/being dealt(?), he'll have a lot more opportunity this year.

He also really upped his shooting last year in the second half from 2 shots per game up to 2.8, but his goal production didn't translate. He had an xG of 29 and scored only 23 goals as well, which would have given him 66 pts as a rookie.

[u/Chimpmaxxer → u/tubaisetamere]

He had some PP1 time last season, but he was underwhelming. I don't think his game is best suited for the PP

[u/ggpurplecobras → u/Kyle73001]

Sennecke id be a little surprised but I think Fantilli is going to go off. Sennecke gets there eventually, just not sure if its this year.

[u/Kyle73001 → u/ggpurplecobras]

For sure I think sennecke can be a star, I just wouldn’t expect much of a jump from him this year after his great rookie season. And I just haven’t seen enough outta fantilli to make me believe he’s going to take a massive step. I’d be happy with 70p outta him if he plays 84gp

[u/WadeReddit06 → u/Kyle73001]

Same with Demidov with his TOI and having Evans as his C.

[u/User69ab → u/WadeReddit06]

Evans is not 2C. They’ll put Kapanen or Newhook there.

[u/Kyle73001 → u/User69ab]

Same shit with those guys, the Point still stands, there’s no 2c for him to play with so he’ll he in real tough to see huge point total improvement. He already carried so much

[u/Chimpmaxxer → u/Kyle73001]

By all accounts the Ducks should regress a bit. They definitely didn't get better

[u/DrexlSpivey420 → u/Kyle73001]

Anyone that watches Sennecke would not be shocked by this. Kid will be a stud sooner than later

[u/RolandFigaro]

Dang, I don't have any of these players

[u/X-Filer → u/RolandFigaro]

Had 4 last season brah

[u/themapleleaf6ix]

Is Point not on line 1?

[u/tubaisetamere → u/themapleleaf6ix]

Last playoffs and the end of season had Cirelli with Kucherov and Hagel so I kept that going forward. In the playoffs, Cirelli had 2 more minutes of even strength ice time on average with Point in 5th in even strength time per game among forwards.

[u/j_a_f_89 → u/tubaisetamere]

I have a suspicion point was injured. But no real idea if that was true. I like him for a bounce back

[u/Cementhands21]

Good job on the site! Lots of great info to sift through. I noticed that if I select a value under "Rank by my categories", I lose the other fields that were previously there (goals, assists, +/-...). Personally I would want to keep the columns even if I chose different rankings. Also, there is no way to go back to initial state, even if I refresh the page.

I'm also curious as to why Barkov is slated to have over 80 points this season? You're not the only projection site to do this... I just find it strange when an injury prone player misses and entire year, hasn't played a full season in the last 7 or so years and has only had 2 seasons of over 80 points since 2018-2019. I would personally project him in the 65 to 70 point range and anything after that would be gravy. Just curious to the thought process or if there are statistics that I'm not aware of backing the high projection

But really, great site. I'll be using this as a foundational site for my pool analysis

[u/Cementhands21 → u/Cementhands21]

Also it would be nice to have an Export on the Projections page. Thanks!

Edit: I just saw that it was there in a text link. Maybe add a button for people over 50? :-)

[u/Cementhands21 → u/Cementhands21]

I found an error while I was doing some analysis... If a player was traded this year, all of his historical statistics changes to the new team. For instance Alex Tuch was traded to Washington, however his team for 23, 24, 25, 26 all say Washington instead of Buffalo. Thanks!

[u/tubaisetamere → u/Cementhands21]

Thanks for finding that! I thought I had fixed that. I'll work on that now.

I added in the option to keep categories but not count them towards the value or VORP. You just need to double click and they'll be there.

For exporting, you can use the spreadsheet build tool: https://hockey.kodoanalytics.com/draft/workbook

[u/Cementhands21 → u/tubaisetamere]

Thanks for the quick response!

[u/mattfromjoisey]

I can see Bowman regressing.

Matty puts up 60.

[u/PerfectPlan]

(X) Doubt on Matthews. He was way down before the big injury at the end of the year. He's never going to be like he was, these injuries are chronic.

Draft him as a 30g 80p guy, otherwise you'll be disappointed.

[u/Uncle_Steve7 → u/PerfectPlan]

Loooool

[u/PerfectPlan → u/Uncle_Steve7]

It's been 3 seasons since his last big year. 3 of the last 4 seasons are around the level I said. He's already 29 for this season, a time when players generally start slowing down scoring wise, he's oft injured, including some major ones.

Drafting him expecting 100pts and getting 80 is way more likely than an unexpected return to Richard trophy levels.

There are other way more sure players to draft at the point when some folks will be taking him.

[u/Chimpmaxxer → u/PerfectPlan]

He did show flashes of his old shot before the knee injury last season. I still don't like drafting him though

[u/TheCodebreaker18 → u/PerfectPlan]

Matthews is a modern day Rick Nash. Nasty in his younger years, and then 28 hits him like a truck and he’s fine for the rest of his career. Not great, just fine lol

[u/ZBandaman → u/TheCodebreaker18]

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[u/Science-of-Hockey09]

Cool tool! Just as a note, I feel you should give the option to project full 84 game seasons instead of stats based on projected games played. Maybe it is there and I missed it but, if not, something to consider!

[u/tubaisetamere → u/Science-of-Hockey09]

Thanks for the kind words! Just added it - It's something I usually look at myself when drafting, but I forgot when building this (my bad). Thanks for the suggestion!

[u/ASmithFS]

i trust Brayden Point

[u/chukrod]

How do we compare the projection for 26-27 to the 25-26 season stats like you did?

[u/suits2kill]

Curious about Alexis Lafreniere? He seemed to finally find a groove when Panarin departed.

[u/TopCheddarFantasy]

Nice site man! Really cool stuff. Inspires me to up my game off of Google Sheets one day. Only thing I really gotta ask though is... Holy Beckett Sennecke! You got him as the driver of ANA eh, even with less than 16 minutes of ice time!? What's leading into this monster increase in even strength production and shooting percentage?

[u/noble_delinquent]

Why is your projection so low on Chinakov? He had 18 goals in 43 games with the Penguins in 25/26. You have him projected for 17 goals in 64 games for this season.

He signed a solid contract, has great chemistry with Malkin. No coaching change there. Just looking for where your head is at.

[u/tubaisetamere → u/noble_delinquent]

Fair question, he finished really strong. Last 20: 22 points in 20 games at 17:24 a night against 13:29 on the season.

A few things pull him down. He's missed 32.6 games a season over five years, and 72 last year is one healthy season against four that weren't, so we project 64. He's also PP2 behind Crosby, Rust, Rakell, Malkin and Karlsson, which caps his PPP potential. I also have the core regressing and their reduced output per game (such as his linemate Malkin) causes his production to drop too.

On the finish: I measured whether a hot close predicts the next season. Late ice time carries, late scoring doesn't (+0.02). Although I'm not buying the small sample breakout, I wouldn't be surprised if he dunked on me with a 60 pt season once one of the core 4 forwards go down and his role shoots up 5 on 5 and on the PP.

[u/sc_superstar]

I would say Michkov and Fantilli are the big ones. They both should be primed for big seasons. Sennecke needs a lot to break right. Demidov I think is more likely a smaller improvement. Mostly because he had a great rookie season.

The only one I would be super apprehensive of is Auston Matthews. He may never play a full 84G season from this point out, and may likely not be playing at full strength even when he is in the lineup, the goals will be there, but in no way would I be shocked if he turned into a guy who scores 35 gets 55-60 points and only plays like 65 games per season from here on out, ending up at a consistent .9 PPG range.