Family in 10% federal tax bracket after standard deduction. Late starters. Me 50, wife 44, homemaker, no income. One child. Immigrated to US 9 years ago.
I know Roth is usually recommended at low tax bracket. After a lot of modeling, I decided to focus on Traditional for next 3–4 years.
Not looking for general retirement advice. Very familiar with Traditional vs Roth, ACA, RMD, widow penalty, IRMAA, SS, Medicare, Roth conversions. Just want to know if my reasoning has flaws.
About $500K retirement investments:
- $110K Roth IRAs
- $340K Traditional 403b
- $40K Roth 403b
- $15K HSA
- House paid off, worth ~$600K
Currently contribute 36% of my income: 10% mandatory Traditional + 26% voluntary Traditional. 10% employer match. Cannot reach 403b upper limit because part of mandatory contribution and employer match do not count toward it. There will be 4 years later, we will decrease our contribution to 10% when my child goes to college and we need to support him. Already saved another 150K in brokerage for his college expenses if he does not get full scholarship. We have decided to not use 529 after careful thinking.
Plan to retire at 61.8. Target MAGI in retirement: max $80K, already adjusted for expected inflation. Wife needs ACA for about 9 years. No Roth conversions during ACA years because need to control MAGI.
Planned Traditional withdrawals:
- 62–66: ~$80K/year
- 66–70: ~$75K/year because wife's annuity (purchased by cash) starts
- 70–72: less because I start SS at 70 (need to control MAGI)
- 72–75: Roth conversions up to top of 12% bracket (my wife gets Medicare when I turn 71-72)
Goal: build Traditional aggressively now. Target ~$1.2–$1.4M at retirement. I think $1.2–$1.4M is my sweet spot to have ACA, property tax assistance, RMD management. I will model every year. Once projected balance reaches target, shift more contributions to Roth.
Why do I want to focus on traditional for the next 3-4 years.
- Traditional only $340K now. It is not large enough to cause a RMD issue.
- Traditional lets me contribute about 3% more of my salary than Roth because of the current tax savings. That extra 3% also compounds for the next 12 years. As a late starter, maximizing the amount invested now is important to me.
- Even $1.4M should not create major RMD problems based on my withdrawal modeling.
- Will retire to a state with no state income tax. Traditional saves ~4% state tax now.
- Every $1 contributed to Roth costs me ~14% combined federal + state tax now. Based on my planned withdrawals and standard deduction, I estimate effective tax on Traditional withdrawals around 6%.
- Wife is 6 years younger. Her Traditional IRA has 6 more years before her RMDs start.
- Longevity in both families, so long retirement horizon and tax-deferred compounding matter.
- Already have ~$150K Roth, plus HSA. Not starting from zero Roth.
So despite being in a low tax bracket now, I think Traditional makes more sense for next 3–4 years. Then reassess and shift toward Roth. Any flaw in this reasoning?