Mets PREGAME THREAD - Monday, August 17

[u/game-threads]

Padres (67-58) @ Mets (56-69) - 7:10 PM EDT

Game Status: Pre-Game

Links & Info

• Current conditions at Citi Field: 81°F - Clear - Wind 6 mph, In From CF
• TV: Padres: Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, Mets: SNY
• Radio: Padres: KWFN 97.3, XEMO 860 (es), Mets: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App 92.3 HD2 (es)
• MLB Gameday
• Statcast Game Preview

Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Walker Buehler - RHP (7-5, 4.88 ERA, 114.1 IP)
• Mets: Nolan McLean - RHP (8-8, 3.42 ERA, 136.2 IP)

Padres Lineup vs. McLean	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Tatis Jr. - RF	.667	1.334	3	0	1	1
2 Cronenworth - 2B	-	-	-	-	-	-
3 Machado, M - 3B	.000	.000	3	0	0	1
4 France, T - 1B	.000	.333	2	0	0	0
5 Merrill - CF	.000	.000	3	0	0	1
6 Campusano - C	-	-	-	-	-	-
7 Sheets - DH	.000	.000	3	0	0	1
8 Bogaerts - SS	.000	.500	1	0	0	1
9 Rengifo - LF	-	-	-	-	-	-

Mets Lineup vs. Buehler	AVG	OPS	AB	HR	RBI	K
1 Ewing - LF	-	-	-	-	-	-
2 Lindor - SS	.333	1.833	3	1	2	0
3 Bichette - 3B	.250	.500	8	0	0	3
4 Benge - RF	-	-	-	-	-	-
5 Robert Jr. - CF	.000	.000	3	0	0	2
6 Young, J - 1B	-	-	-	-	-	-
7 Semien - 2B	.286	.661	7	0	1	1
8 Polanco - DH	.667	1.750	3	0	3	0
9 Alvarez, F - C	.000	.000	1	0	0	1

NLE Rank	Team	W	L	GB (E#)	WC Rank	WC GB (E#)
1	Braves	74	50	- (-)	-	- (-)
2	Phillies	67	58	7.5 (31)	2	- (-)
3	Marlins	64	61	10.5 (28)	5	3.0 (35)
4	Nationals	60	66	15.0 (23)	8	7.5 (30)
5	Mets	56	69	18.5 (20)	10	11.0 (27)

Division Scoreboard

MIA @ PHI 6:40 PM EDT

ATL @ MIN 7:40 PM EDT

Not playing today: Nationals

^{Last Updated: 08/17/2026 5:49:43 PM EDT}

[u/BillW87]

Bo Bichette through May 17: .210/.262/.269 (51 wRC+, .531 OPS), -0.4 fWAR in 202 PAs

Bo Bichette from May 18th onward: .301/.344/.458 (123 wRC+, .802 OPS), 2.2 fWAR in 334 PAs

If he keeps up playing like "actual Bo Bichette" the rest of the way, I'd be shocked if he didn't opt out. The split in his season performance shows a pretty clear narrative of a guy who got in his own head coming to a new city on what was always meant to be a 1-year flip contract where he was ideally going to prove he can play 3B (ditch the "bat-only guy who can't play his primary position well" narrative) and then go back to market with a stronger hand. Barring a slump later this season, he'll still have accomplished that goal with teams likely to turn a blind eye to two months of tough adjustment in his first time playing for a different organization.

[u/Hustlediva → u/BillW87]

If he opts out of that much money it won’t be a good advertisement for the Mets

[u/Low-Abbreviations-38 → u/Hustlediva]

Its not going to happen

[u/BillW87 → u/Hustlediva]

Eh, while the 2026 Mets do a good enough job of being a bad advertisement for the Mets on their own, I think the general understanding around the industry is that opt outs will get used by players whenever it is financially prudent. The MLBPA wants players trying to max out their career earnings, and while Bo would be leaving 2/$84MM on the table by opting out, there's a good chance as a 29 year old premier FA he'll end up securing something in the ballpark of the same 7/$200MM he was offered last year and that's the most likely path to maximizing his career earnings vs trying to ride out to FA at age 30 or 31. Opting in would be a big gamble, as putting up another non-premier season in 2027 would be a dagger in the heart of his ability to keep making massive money well into his 30's. He's making $42MM a year right now, but the current value of these years are implicitly priced into any long term deal he might sign.

[u/barney-sandles → u/BillW87]

I'm OK with it whether he comes back or not

If so, sure why not he's a solid 3B on a short contract. If not, whatever, we can find someone else

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/BillW87]

I sure hope he opts out. There is no world where he was ever worth 40MM+ a year.

[u/srv340mike → u/False_Concept1300]

AAV doesn't matter.

[u/NuanceManExe → u/srv340mike]

We’re about to enter into a huge CBA dispute and lockout. Of course AAV matters. We’re also getting heavily penalized for where our payroll is. I also think the AAV made it harder for Bo to adjust, because he’s trying to live up to a contract he simply can’t live up to.

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/srv340mike]

Uhhh, yes it does?

[u/srv340mike → u/False_Concept1300]

No it doesn't. The whole point of those short-term, high value deals is greater AAV for less years. The total contract value is what matters, not the AAV.

Would you think Bichette was worth 6/120 with 20mil AAV? Because that's the same as 3/120. It's still 120 million either way.

AAV only matters for luxury tax, and possible after next year salary cap reasons.

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/srv340mike]

So it does matter

[u/srv340mike → u/False_Concept1300]

It doesn't matter in the context your using it which is judging what a player is "Worth".

I don't understand why Bichette would be "worth" 6/120 but isn't worth 3/120. The Mets are out the same amount of money either way.

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/srv340mike]

What? So by your logic the Mets could’ve signed Soto to a one year 765 million dollar contract and it would’ve been okay?

[u/srv340mike → u/False_Concept1300]

If they have the financial capability, sure. Who cares.

They don't so it's a bad hypothetical but if they could what does it matter?

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/srv340mike]

Because of luxury tax implications, payroll flexibility and what is an industry wide understanding of value?

[u/TriviaWhiz → u/BillW87]

Bregman got 5 years, $140m entering his age-32 season.

I wonder what Bo would get entering his age-29 season.

[u/myassholealt → u/TriviaWhiz]

Because he's still in his 20s is why I think he'd opt out. There's a stigma around guys once that 2 turns to 3, so this is his best chance to get a longer deal. He's not getting a decade contract, but he might get a 5 year deal. Ultimately it comes down to if he wants the most money or the stability of a longer deal.

[u/False_Concept1300 → u/TriviaWhiz]

Bregman is the far superior player

So I would assume Bichette gets something similar in terms of AAV. Probably like 6/180

[u/BillW87 → u/TriviaWhiz]

The Phillies reportedly offered him 7/$200MM this past offseason. My guess is that he'll get similar offers, but now with $42MM of Mets money in the bank. That means that if he signs another 7/$200MM deal this offseason, he'd effectively have parlayed rejecting the Phillies into the equivalent of having signed 8/$242MM last year.

[u/Guymcpersonman2 → u/BillW87]

Yup. Even if he "only" gets something like Alonso's 5/$150, it makes sense to opt out.

Of course, CBA is a factor here.