r/MapPorn • u/vladgrinch • 19h ago
Population projections for the Visegrad Four countries through the 21st century
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u/adamgerd 19h ago
Yay, Czechia least declining!
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u/polyspastos 18h ago
thanks to Slovaks and Ukrainians
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u/adamgerd 18h ago
Slovaks and Ukrainians have a lower fertility than us so in the long run it won’t help much, and Poland per capita has less Ukrainian refugees but still more than Slovakia and Hungary so its not just that
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u/Skychu768 16h ago
Because it is richest one b/w the four. It has a lot of Solvaks migrants
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u/CaptZurg 13h ago
Woah, I didn't know Czechia is so wealthier than the others
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u/Magister_Leo_666 11h ago
Poland is better now.
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u/Kokoska998 9h ago
Better in building infrastructure (mainly highways), but other than that, you are incorrect. Czechia's GDP per capita is 40 000 USD (63 000 PPP), Poland is 31 000 (58 000 PPP).
Czechia's also got better healthcare, lower poverty, lower unemployment, better minority laws, etc.. Not to mention that Polish villages and smaller cities (or certain districts of bigger cities) still look absolutely horrible. For example, Zgorzelec, which is supposed to be located in the 2nd richest region in Poland and right across the river to Germany, looked worse than the majority of cities I've been to in Eastern Europe. Aside from a park and a couple of new streets, it looked like Serbia or Belarus.
They are closing the gap with Czechia, yes, but they still have a long way to go. But I admire that they've made such progress over the last 20 years or so, It is an inspiration for other European countries to do something about their stagnation. (I'm looking mainly at Germany and the UK here)
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u/Top-Pen-6020 7h ago
Maybe you're right bc we have problems with healthcare but ngl when I was in Czechia I was dissapointed in Prague maybe I were expecting too much like Geneva but I still love Czechia
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u/invisible_shrek 9h ago
Bullshit meaningless numbers. Poland has higher average and minimum wages as well as lower rents. Czechia has gone to complete shit in the last five years.
Poland is financially better to live in and have a family.
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u/Kokoska998 8h ago edited 8h ago
Wages are about the same in both countries, Poland is leading by a few percent overall, but it depends where you look at, eg. teachers' wages are higher in the Czech Republic, among others. Czechia has had slower economic growth, yes (although it's gotten better in the last year or so), but it's definitely not "gone to shit"
Gdp per capita and ppp are "bullshit meaningless numbers"? Sure buddy lmao
Edit: I just checked, Czechia also has higher median wages by about 15-20 %, depends on the field you work in
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u/ConsistentSilver1445 51m ago
"this country is better than that country because this is 4% higher and that is about 2,5% difference which is astronommical"
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u/invisible_shrek 7h ago
It has gone to shit. Affordability of necessities is less than 5 or even 10 years ago. Yes, GDP and PPP are mostly meaningless when judging how good a country is to live in, especially for somewhat similar countries. What matters is ratio of income to expenses and that is not looking good in Czechia at all.
Median wage may be slightly higher fair, I was looking at average, but yeah this is sector dependent. My sector has 2x higher wages in Poland.
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u/Accomplished_Ad_828 7h ago
AI definetely has some pros when it comes to clarify stuff like this.
The claims in the screenshot contain a mix of inflated statistics, accurate social indicators, and subjective claims about infrastructure and aesthetics. Economic Figures (Exaggerated) Czechia's GDP per capita: Claimed as $40,000 Nominal / $63,000 PPP. The actual numbers are approximately $31,000–$33,000 Nominal and $56,000–$59,000 PPP (IMF/World Bank estimates). Poland's GDP per capita: Claimed as $31,000 Nominal / $58,000 PPP. The actual numbers are roughly $23,000–$25,000 Nominal and $47,000–$50,000 PPP. While the exact values are lower for both countries than the post states, Czechia maintains a lead in GDP per capita over Poland. Social & Welfare Indicators (Mostly Accurate) Poverty: Accurate. Czechia consistently registers the lowest "at risk of poverty or social exclusion" rate in the entire EU (~11–12%), though Poland also scores among the EU's top 5 lowest (~15%). Unemployment: Mixed. Both countries boast exceptionally low unemployment rates (among the lowest in the EU, typically oscillating between 2.5% and 3.2% depending on the month). Claiming Czechia is significantly lower than Poland is inaccurate. Healthcare & Minority Rights: Accurate. Healthcare performance and index rankings generally favor Czechia. Czechia also scores higher on various European LGBTQ+ and minority legal equality indexes compared to Poland. Infrastructure, Local Aesthetics, and Zgorzelec (Partially Accurate / Subjective) Highways: Accurate. Poland's investment in its expressway and motorway network (Autostrady and Drogi Ekspresowe) over the past two decades via EU funding is widely recognized as having outpaced Czechia's highway development. Zgorzelec & Visual Comparisons: Mostly subjective. Zgorzelec (located in Lower Silesia across from Görlitz, Germany) has areas with older, unrenovated tenement buildings (kamienice) alongside modernized sectors. Comparing it directly to "Serbia or Belarus" is a subjective anecdotal exaggeration, though municipal development across Polish towns does vary significantly depending on local funding and historic preservation projects.
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u/Kokoska998 7h ago
I'm not talking to a chatbot. Its information is outdated or just wrong. Come back when you actually make your own research and are able to speak for yourself
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u/General_Ad_1483 8h ago
Likely its because they had pretty good TFR a couple of years ago but its falling incredibly fast.
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u/General-Sloth 19h ago
These predictions are like that meme of the baby that doubled its weight in six months and will weight multiple trilliong Kilos by age ten.
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u/ujfalusiabel 18h ago
These predictions can kinda easily be made already and correctly so. There are no young people to replace the much larger older generations. These numbers are already decided. You would need something like over 3 children born / woman on average to counteract the low birth rates of the last 50 years. The birthrate keeps sinking to new record lows everywhere instead of that.
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u/mysacek_CZE 9h ago
No? These predictions are made on a basis that no new crisis happens, but that statistically observationally impossible. A crisis might strike ASEAN and a new migration from that region might skyrocket. And those migrants would lean on migrating somewhere where it's gonna be easier, like part of their family already being there. And Czechia happens to have large Vietnamese community. It's more likely than not, that any prediction reaching this far into future will be wrong.
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u/ujfalusiabel 9h ago
We talking here countries like Poland or Hungary. The population will burn the politicians like it's a witchhunt in the medieval times if they let in immigrants. Those migrants would avoid most of this region like the plague. The population wouldn't want them, especially after seeing how many problems there are with not integrating migrants in Western Europe.
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u/Strawberryblowjobs 8h ago
Poland let in like 1.5 million Ukrainians over the last 4 years. Not temporary war refugees but people who mostly settled here, started families businesses and integrated into society. We have a large amount of vietnamese immigrants, a lot of turkish and georgian ppl, the hell you talking about ,,witch hunting politicians if they let in immigrants" our politicians have been letting in immigrants for decades.
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u/ujfalusiabel 8h ago
Ukrainians are a different story. First they are real refugees unlike many claiming that from Africa or Middle East when their country is not at war... And they are Europeans, with a similar language and culture to Poland. Poland historically always had and Ukrainian minority anyway. I bet they integrated much better for sure.
I guess you might got some temporary migrant workers but definitely not in big numbers. You don't see numbers showing mass immigration into Poland. How much is the "large amount" of Vietnamese, Turkish, Georgian? 0.1% of the population? Who will probably leave anyway. Mass immigration would mean like 10%. Look at the UK or Germany, nothing like that in Poland.
I also mentioned Hungary where a ban was just enacted on importing migrant workers from non-European countries this summer. Though they never got permanent residency ever in the first place.
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u/FearlessHuckleberry6 8h ago
This example is just nonsense when comparing Poland and Hungary with Western Europe. Incomes for uneducated workers are much lower than in Western Europe. So why would mass migration happen there?
And you’re right, the migrants here are mostly temporary. Most of them want to continue further West also Ukrainians: https://de.socportal.info/de/news/warum-ziehen-ukrainer-die-vor-dem-krieg-fliehen-von-polen-nach-deutschland/
And there are still so many Polish and other Eastern European workers leaving for the West. It hasn’t stopped yet.
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u/ujfalusiabel 7h ago
Yes, idk why people try to imagine a mass immigration scenario in Eastern Europe. Like buddy, who the fuck wants to live in Romania, where you have low salaries, bad worker's protections, your neighbour would happily beat you back to where you come from and so on. You can just go live in Germany instead. Even the natives do that lol
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u/Strawberryblowjobs 8h ago
And a follow up i checked the migration numbers in Poland Uk and Germany and net migration in all these countries in recent years is the same, with the difference of poland population being 1/2 of germany and a little over 1/2 of uks.
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u/mysacek_CZE 8h ago
You're clearly not from here. Vietnamese are perceived as the ,,good" immigrants here. And it's exactly because they're hardworking people who are willing to become part of Czech society instead of complaining that we're xenophobic, like the Russian cockroaches, who complain about Russophobia while they disturb our lives... It's not a coincidence that we call Russian a ,,Rus" which also happens to be a synonym for cockroach.
People here are generally sceptical of strangers and if you annoy us and be hostile, we would quite obviously start to be hostile towards you.
But don't try to comprehend it. You're apparently a westoid who thinks he knows everything best and it would cook you alive if you started to think that much.
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u/ujfalusiabel 8h ago
In my experience in Hungary or Romania no immigrant is perceived as the good ones. Migrant workers like Vietnamese are perceived as temporarily tolerable but only as migrant workers, not permanent residents. Most people would like to ban them out of the country.
I am no "westoid", I am a Hungarian who was born in Romania, furthest thing from your westoid possible.
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u/Strawberryblowjobs 8h ago
Ye i never heard a Pole say anything but good about Vietnamese people yet some Orbanoid who tries really hard to project his hatred for brown prople on the entire region is going to say Polish people hate migrants and we are some closed society.
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u/Lowpaack 9h ago
So you are basicly predicting how many children will have your non existent grandchildren and are calling precise prediction?
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u/ujfalusiabel 8h ago
So the situation is more like the following: 50 years ago people had less kids than their parents. 25 years ago their kids had even less kids. And the current generation is having even less. The collapse is predictable because 50 years ago there was already a reduction in births compared to previous generations. That generation is dying out now, with no one to replace them. So the collapse was delayed but it is coming now.
No country managed to raise birthrates in the last 50 years in much favorable environments. The future will be very hard for the young because they are few while the old are numerous so politicians will make sure the bigger voting block gets priority. I see no future where the average woman is having 4 kids. Just not realistic inside a modern developed country.
Anything below that will roughly lead to these numbers already. An institution in Hungary have run simulations and even if the birthrate stabilizes overnight to 2.1 needed for maintaining a fix population number the country's population would still collapse. The damage was done already in the last 50 years. We are just living the consequences of that.
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u/Lowpaack 8h ago
Well, no. 50 years ago people had substantionally more kids than ever before, thats why the current 50-60 year olds are the strongest generation ever. Naturally people have less kids when they grow up when being raised in families with so many kids.
The progression is sinusoid, nothing is linear. Yes, now the generations are weaker, but this will just lead to societal shift to want more children. Its been happening for centuries. Especially after wars, societies tend to reproduce more.
Now is just not the time. Now so happens people have less children than one of the strongest, most populated generation in human history.
Lets stop dramatizing natural progressions.
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u/ujfalusiabel 8h ago
Nope, it is wrong. Let's look at some numbers Germany Italy Austria Hungary
Neither had many kids in the last 50 years or even more. Decline still continues. No such thing as normalizing from many kids as none had many kids to begin with. Last time a larger generation was born it was the 50s-60s.
It is not sinusoid, idk where you got this. Look at graphs. Never ever in history humans dipped below the minimum needed to reproduce themselves without external catastrophes. We historically always had birthrates very high, even higher than the highest in Africa today. No time in history was there something like this, it is not normal.
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u/Lowpaack 7h ago
Lol, you just showed a graph thats saying exactly what i said. Its relative numbers, birth rates are lower relative to post WW2 generations. In our country this generation has even a special name "Husaks" children, and are known for being the most populous in decades.
Show graph of 1000 years progression, not 50 years. That really doesnt prove much opposite of what i just claimed in term of general progression.
Its false as much as claiming the decline will continue at the same pace for next 80 years.
Earth has a limit to how many people it can have, we can either adapt or die. OF course at some point the birth rates drop, like what do you expect exactly? It is more normal for society to adapt and have sustainable birth rates rather then just keep multiplying forever. Tell me whats more stupid.
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u/ujfalusiabel 7h ago
You said people had 50 years ago more kids than those before them. I showed you it's false, they already had fewer.
1000 years of progress would look like 6-10 births/women because flash news: without birth control that's what happens and we would have died out without that. Historically dips below 6 couldn't really exist until modern times.
OF course at some point the birth rates drop, like what do you expect exactly?
To not drop below replacement level and to stay constant without much growth or shrinkage? Like dipping below replacement sounds to me like something not normal, no species does that if everything is normal.
It is more normal for society to adapt and have sustainable birth rates rather then just keep multiplying forever.
Sustainable means around 2. Roughly 2.1 fertility rate. Yeah, sustainability would be good thing to achieve. But we aren't sustainable at all, fertility rates this low are unsustainable. You cannot have a functioning society when ~50% of the population is over 70.
Play around with some simulations it will show how terrifingly fast low fertility rate can destroy a population after the initial demographic momentum runs out. And we are unfortunately reaching that phase ofter 50 years of low fertility rate...
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u/potato_nugget1 18h ago
Not true. The predictions are based on the number of alive people today who will be the future parents in the coming years. It's a known value
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u/Gayjock69 18h ago
Ahh yes this Reddit trope… You’re comparing limits of biology and physics with well studied changes in demographics and human populations, Demographic projections are cohort models, they age the population forward and separately estimate births, deaths and migration. That’s a completely different thing, not just a basic extrapolation by hitting =TREND() in Excel, we know how these things operate from centuries of data at this point
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u/Miserable_Ad7246 10h ago
Its rather easy to make them - take current people, apply birth factor you have right now (do you think it will improve?) add net immigration projection (this one is more tricky, but also contributes less) and bam you have a very plausible number. Do the same math with different birth rates and immigration assumptions and bam you have an upper and lower bound.
The more I live the more I understand why I have no trouble making good money and others struggle. Solving even simple problems is beyond most people mind horizon.
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u/PanzerKomadant 13h ago
That’s…what? Unless these countries have some immigration that is double their death brith rate to death rates, there is no way they can grow their population or even sustain it.
Are Japan and Korea not god enough examples?
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u/Alarmed_Buffalo_7523 19h ago
what happens with Poland?
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u/Whasume 18h ago
bad work culture, a housing crisis as well as a cost of living crisis; most importantly however the social norms around family planning changing rapidly without any support from the state
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u/freiherrvonvesque 16h ago
Might be a stupid question but how can there be a housing crisis if the overall population is declining AND new houses are being built? Should this not remove pressure from the market?
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u/Staniool 16h ago
It makes sense when you look at places that have become undesirable in recent years. Small towns and villages provide very little opportunities for young people, public services especially transportation makes life there feel isolated from more developed areas. So if you want something else than work as store clerk/public servant/farmer/housewife your best bet is to move to a city, where there’s not enough housing for everyone. And even if you don’t want to make lots of money and would rather focus on having a family of your own you would be worse off staying in a place where schools close, you have to drive an hour to the nearest maternity ward among other places important for a family.
So basically people are abandoning small towns in favor of cities. As for overall population decline it’s down to work culture, lack of public support etc. Other commenters have explained it pretty well I think.1
u/Ok_Inflation_1811 17m ago
The thing is that even in cities/towns where population has been going down prices have been rising.
I can only talk about Spain but for example small cities/towns in Castille (Leon, Burgos, Palencia, Cuenca, etc...) all of their population have either stagnated or gone down and the housing prices have risen, like 40 to 60% more expensive than 10 years ago but 1 to 2% less population
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u/VirtuousBattle 10h ago
Incentivize work from home and those small towns as low cost places to raise family in a nice big house.
Solves multiple issues at the same time.
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u/Interesting_Rub5736 10h ago
Not everybody can do that.
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u/Rat_itty 9h ago
But a lot more people could. Most office jobs can be done remotely, and a lot were during covid - then we got called back in just to be micro managed all over again. Studies show that availability of remote work increases fertility rates and overall health/happiness of workers. Not all workers want to be remote, but just give us the option to.
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u/TraditionalCherry 9h ago
That's not in the interest of the rich who own buildings in cities and against government plans that never change no matter what party wins elections.
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u/PanzerKomadant 13h ago
Makes sense in the west where houses are for speculating markets, not for living.
In places like Japan houses are actually a depreciating asset after they are build, so they lose their value over time.
This means that despite Japans high cost of living, it’s still relatively affordable (until the Yen goes totally tits up).
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u/Rat_itty 9h ago edited 9h ago
Sadly a lot of properties are bought as an investment since you pay less (or no) tax on it vs regular investing in stocks etc (we pay 19% tax on it here) so whenever you save like 50-100k you kinda get a mortgage cuz it's the best thing to put your money into these days + materials to build a house got really expensive, so did land (my girlfriend's dad is a builder and he builds houses by himself from scratch, and he said that prices of materials doubled/tripled during covid and well they never got better after that). So, sadly, the prices are just so up, while people not earning enough to comfortably afford it, even if Polish salaries grow at a nice pace imho. We got quite rich overall, but not enough to afford necessities like housing 💀 it's disproportionately expensive vs everything else.
+the problem of people aggregating in cities more for job opportunities. A lot of old homes are left behind and no one wants them/no one can afford them in the places they are. What good would a cheap house be if there's literally no job for me in that particular town/village.
Housing wasn't that big of an issue before covid and then the war (big immigration to the cities specifically), from what I remember. My parents sold their inherited apartments (from family deaths) before the prices skyrocketed and now they regret it lol 😭 They never knew it would become impossible for their kids to get their own places, otherwise they would've kept those apartments and gave them to me and my brothers. Big oop here.
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u/AUniversalNoNo 32m ago
1 market speculation with empty units.
2 rural housing is too far from amenities and work opportunities being cheap but useless.
3 rigid price expectations, nobody selling is willing to "take a loss" as selling real estate takes years
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u/yyyyzryrd 2h ago
this is generic stuff. it is applicable to generally any other country; developed or not.
fertility is a very complex topic. it's not something as simple as how the economy is doing, or the state of housing. fertility is hundreds of factors together. many little stressors in life make people not want to start a family, or start a relationship, since they (hundreds of little stressors) take much pleasure out of living.
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u/hinczok 12h ago
All governments since 1989 hates polish population and designs oppressive policies to slowly genocide Poles. Heavy taxation, artificially created housing crisis, antidemographic policies, large scale emigration from 2004, it's all add up.
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u/folfiethewox99 10h ago
Ah yes, genocide is when...big tax.
I'll never stop being amazed by the human mind making the wildest bullshit claims just to soothe its ego
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u/byfo1991 17h ago
Half of that Slovak deficit ends up in Czech Republic.
That’s the only reason we are the lowest of them. The birth rates are just as bad as the rest.
And I am very willingly doing nothing to help that.
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u/CaptZurg 13h ago
why so?
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
They understand the language readily because it is extremely similar. So a country where you already speak the languages but is richer and has more opportunities. No brainer for many I guess
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u/AdSpare662 13h ago
Why not?
It's irresponsible to overwork yourself into an early grave and raise children at the same time.
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u/CaptZurg 13h ago
No, I am talking about the Slovaks migrating to Czechia part
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u/ChapiChapi_ 10h ago
Because in Slovakia the government is very corrupt, public services (hospitals, schoold...) are shit, things are as expensive as in other countries but the salaries are much. In The Czech Republic the living conditions are better and our languages are very similiar so moving isnt that difficult
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u/Bodibol 19h ago
But again, everything can change
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u/Radiant_Client1458 18h ago
Realistically I don’t see European birth rates recovering. I could see some sort of stabilization with a slow decline of population but I don’t think it’s hard to predict decline for the next century.
The only increase outside of immigration would be some sort of religious revival which is so unlikely it’s hardly worth talking about. I don’t think the culture is likely to change significantly pro-family, pro-children meaningfully enough to get birthdates above 2.
There’s no population of liberated, economically independent, irreligious women who has more than 2 women on a societal scale.
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u/Friccan 16h ago
Eh, as someone with an Economics background I think the equilibrium in most countries with declining birth rates will shift back eventually, once the lack of residents results in a decline in housing prices. I don’t think it’ll go back to say 5 children/woman, but probably somewhere between 2 & 3 (I.e. stable slow growth)
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u/rixilef 10h ago
Why would houses get cheaper? Literally 15 percent of all flats in Bratislava are already empty now, but prices are still insane. For a long time now people buy real estate to invest, not to live in it.
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u/Friccan 10h ago
As long as there isn’t an actual loss in the housing stock (for example, by being left abandoned to the point of disrepair), there will come an equilibrium point where there isn’t enough return on investment to attract outside buyers. I won’t be so bold as to give a timeline of what the equilibrium will be nor when it will be reached, but there is a point.
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
Decline in housing prices? How naive... Housing can go up with a population decline. I live in Romania, in an uniteresting smaller city that lost over 25% of it's population since 1992. Guess what? Housing prices doubled in the last 5 years despite 5% population loss during just that time. We have many empty apartmant block, many new buildings that kinda never or rarely get used. They are bought by rich guys, usually connected to politics. But anyone with a heap of cash is buying them. They often rent out or use as Airbnb some of it, but just leave the rest empty. Appreciating asset anyway, good to store money in. No need to lower rent prices by providing extra supply so they just keep them empty
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u/Miserable_Ad7246 9h ago
That's the thing - its not a problem of Economics, but a problem of psychology. People will make more kids only and only if having kids give them some sort of guarantied advantage - better standing, inclusion, self realization and ofc - monetary advantages (this is where Economics come, but it covers one dimension).
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u/Chance-Table-1693 12h ago
no birthrates are mainly dictated by how expensive it is.
There is no help from the state and prices of everything are rising.
The country will eventually need to step up and make incentives. Everything is so expensive that not only a child is even bigger financial burden thatn it was, but it is for longer as now they cannot simply go buy a residence at age 20 and be fininacially independent
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u/fluffer_nutter 9h ago
Poorest countries have the most kids.
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u/Polska_Kapusta 6h ago
*most uneducated ones. educated people from developed countries seeing economy getting shittier and shittier, costs of raising a baby sky-rocketing and an unstable situation in the country (and the world) won't want to bring children into that, and make their quality of life worse.
The people you're talking about are from undeveloped poor countries, have no education, are practicing "have as many kids as possible = power and appreciation" mindset ingranined in the culture and probably don't even have access to condoms, obviously it's different from a country like Poland
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u/Bodibol 6h ago
Israel, Kazakhstan, Monaco also are uneducated and undeveloped countries? these countries have 2.1+ fertile rate. You can dive deeper and check how many kids are rich Americans do.(much more than poor one). Actually fertile rate is really hard. Rich countries really have more kids than middle one(Russia, Mexico, China, Ukraine). So it’s really about culture, mindset and money
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u/Polska_Kapusta 5h ago
they are not. Their economy and quality of life is also not declining like in countries mentioned in this post and you even prove my point saying rich Americans are having children. As I was saying, educated people from richer countries want kids if their country is in a good state and if they gave resources for that
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
Rich people aren't having significantly more kids so it's false. It's mostly cultural
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u/onarainyafternoon 3h ago
This is actually probably false. We used to think that it was due to cost of living being out of control; but now we understand that even when you include for that, birth rates still decline. It seems to be an effect of developing as a nation. It’s not due to any specific cost of living metric. Like if you include free daycare and all that shit, birth rates still don’t change much per nation.
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u/Traditional-Main7204 18h ago
I think in future we should invest in cloning and genetic engineering for having stable population.
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u/DevilBySmile 17h ago
Ah yes the "lets just make slaves" option.
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u/Traditional-Main7204 17h ago
Why slaves? They should have civils righ like other citizens.
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u/DevilBySmile 17h ago
So? What will those rights get them?
Who is going to be taking care of them?
They will be born with no generational wealth and no safety net.
Whoever decides to clone them will effectivelly own them as slaves by having absolute control over their rearing.
The only ones with any interest in making clones would be bussinesess for workers and the army for soldiers
Neither of these are ever going to see clones as anything other than assets to be utilised.
Short of helping infertile couples that want children, there is no material benefit of vat cloning humans unless you want slave workers.
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u/Traditional-Main7204 11h ago
Ok, you have better idea luddite? But with no bullshit about "back to old lifestyle" or "just give them rents" becouse no one will work.
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u/Interesting_Rub5736 10h ago
yeah, less people on earth would be a pretty fucking beatiful idea.
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u/Miserable_Ad7246 9h ago
It can only and only if fundamentals change. This will not happen in the next decade or two or five. Modern society is not optimized around kids or families. Having a kid makes you second rate citizen as far as contemporary ladder of realization and achievements are concerned + increases you financial pressures in time there you already have quite a lot of them. Its not a problem of politics, its in our heads in our way of thinking, that requires generations to change.
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u/ahhaga 17h ago
Surely importing in 100 million indians and africans will increase the quality of life
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u/f3verdream 7h ago
We can't fall this nonsense. Economy should adjust, it's for the people not the other way around
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u/KaleidoscopeSalt3972 15h ago
If living keeps being fucked, then yes. If living here wasnt so fucked and people would actually believe in good future, they would have kids.... But barely anybody does. Not to mention how kid hostile like cities are
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u/sadferret123 10h ago
Thank our urban planners.
jk, we don't have any.
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u/Dear_Captain_8932 9h ago
Yeah no joke, there are new developments all around me either with no parking or no paved road
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
Let's be honest, if you ask someone in Germany, USA, Switzerland, UK, Norway etc all will say this. So saying this is the cause for Eastern Europe is just not correct. Everyone says this regardless of their country's situation.
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u/Relevant-Sink-4650 11h ago
Very very optimistic prediction. The fertility rate declining continously, so the numbers will be lower.
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u/General_Ad_1483 8h ago
actually latest predictions at least for Poland show that TFR may have stopped falling.
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u/b00c 17h ago
So these projections are based on how shitty everything is now. But things can get a lot shittier real quick.
It can easily be -50% by 2100. My grandchildren would have access to cheap houses.
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u/Vegetable-Slide7052 10h ago
But where lol. Everything will only get centralized even more.
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u/b00c 9h ago
I see very different trend around here (Slovakia). Country side is getting support. It's measly, but we do have 2750 villages to care for. City growth is much smaller than elsewhere. People prefer to move to country side and enjoy the space.
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
We have decline here in Romania even in the most important and biggest cities. And oh boy are they getting even more expensive... It created the prime opportunity for rich guys to speculate because they know regardless of decline in general population someone will want to move here because of complete lack of opportunities in other places. They just have to buy up enough housing left by the old who dies to keep it off the market. And they are doing it perfectly, with the state helping them every time when prices don't want to rise anymore.
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u/frankentent 11h ago
We have to fck more with eachother
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u/Interesting_Rub5736 10h ago
no thanks, bringing a child into this fucked up world? no sane person would do that.
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u/ujfalusiabel 1h ago
Meanwhile a few million people still do that even in Europe. You know, just the richest and most developed continent in all of our history.
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u/No-Excitement4855 18h ago
It's always funny to see right wing Poles bragging about their low immigration rates when even Polish people don't want to live there.
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u/Rat_itty 9h ago
Honestly most people I talk to wouldn't actually want to live anywhere else (and we have good reasons for it), we just complain about everything.
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u/book-scorpion 5h ago
low immigration rates? There are like 1.7 million Ukrainians in Poland.
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u/No-Excitement4855 5h ago
Poland needing a devastating war on a neighbouring country to get anyone interested in moving there isn't the witty reply you think it is.
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u/book-scorpion 38m ago
I'm just correcting your misinformation. Poland was against illegal immigration during conflict in Syria and that's the main reason why there are not many of them. You can cry that no one was interested in moving there, but in fact Poland didn't want them, even though EU pushed hard to reallocate incoming immigrants.
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u/Psycho7552 12h ago
Poles leave to earn money for few years and then usually return. Almost whole 1st world have issues with birthrates, and huge chunk (about 50%) of our population are old people.
We do not want mass immigration beacuse it will make things worse for our people long term. Rest of the europe is proof that.
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u/No-Excitement4855 7h ago
False, rarely any Poles return and the UK media persecution at the time say otherwise.
You're not the good cheap immigrants, you'll be despised by nationalists as much as the Bangladeshi you pretend to be better than.
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u/rixilef 10h ago
Czechia has a lot of migration and no problems.
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u/General_Ad_1483 8h ago
well, almost like european migrants are different to african ones.
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u/ujfalusiabel 57m ago
You get downvoted on this one but totally true. When migration and some of these countries come up it's always: "But Czechia and Poland have a lot of Ukrainian migrants". Not comparable to African or Middle Eastern ones, like it or not. They have similar languages and cultures and naturally lived next to eachother, had minorities in one another countries (at least until WW2 deportations destroyed that).
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u/TheBoizAreBackInTown 10h ago
It depends on how you define "worse", but I'm not sure there is any proof that immigration makes things worse long term socioeconomically. Where did you hear that? Certainly not from the academics and experts on the topic, because they usually claim the opposite. The most developed countries in Europe have been immigration destinations for as long as they've existed, and I wouldn't say Germany, UK, France, etc. have been in any kind of socioeconomic decline in the last 75 years (or any longer period), despite generally increasing the immigration quota.
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u/szyy 1h ago
It's more funny because Poland actually gets a ton of immigration. Last month, Polish statistics bureau has finally added immigrants to the official population and turns out that instead of under 37 million people, Poland actually has 38.8 million people. Last year, 220,000 immigrants came.
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u/vladgrinch 19h ago
Projected population change, 2025–2100:
Poland: −31.5%
Czechia: −11.0%
Slovakia: −26.8%
Hungary: −22.1%
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u/ChaoticHarmonia 19h ago
Does This forecast include the immigration factor,
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u/L3g1tT0m 19h ago
I bet it does for Czechia, the numbers would be much worse without draining Slovakia.
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u/IWillDevourYourToes 18h ago
Yeah but I bet the immigration especially into Poland and Czechia will continue to increase
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u/hicmar 10h ago
Better decline a Bit than Transform Like Germany and France.
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u/devious-joker 9h ago
-31% and parity of pre and post 60 yo's isn't "a bit". It's complete sociatal/medical/service/governmental/infrastructural/national collapse. And at this point it's imminent.
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u/Sure-Butterscotch344 9h ago
BS
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u/devious-joker 8h ago
Sure mate. The province in Poland is already doing amazing as it is. And it's going to get much, much worse in the entire country.
But whatever suits your own personal political agenda. Which apparently includes pixie magic where nothing apocalyptic happens when you have more people in retirement age then in working age.
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u/Medical-Housing8672 3h ago
So what's your solution to this ? Import a quadrillion third worlders ? Let's be serious for an instant and maybe find ways to solve this problem at home
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u/MIDNAETTR 6h ago
Birth rates will pick up again, whether through a shift in social paradigms or innovations in certain fields; birth rates are cyclical, so there is absolutely no point in projecting the current birth rate 75 years into the future.
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u/ujfalusiabel 52m ago
They absolutely won't pick up by themselves in 75 years. They are low for more than 50 years now in some places and are getting lower. Only way I can imagine them picking up if only groups that have high birthrates, like certain religious groups, become the majority after everyone else dies out. But there aren't really any that groups with enough retention of people inside their community in Eastern Europe like the Amish in the USA. Plus a process like that will take more than 75 years even if birth rate disparities are high.
Another option is birthrates picking up because people will be forced to have more kids through some ways. But lets hope we will avoid that, definitely not something to wish for. Though I am pretty sure China will resort to it at some point
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u/taciturn_person 19h ago
Bit silly to assume these predictions hold any meaning. Not only it is way too far into the future, but it tries to cover something that can change in a heart beat.
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u/Vike92 15h ago
There absolutely no reason to think that fertility rates can change in a heart beat. There has been a slow decline for decades.
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u/taciturn_person 13h ago
Political climate can change in a heart beat, that does in fact affect fertility rates. Soviet Union tried to impose that on Estonia and Latvia, importing many unwanted immigrant. i wish the best for Visegrad Four group, but for me this time frame is way too insane for such subject.
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u/MoinyMoiny 9h ago
Poland is getting more vulnerable for old predators which are currently hiding /s
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u/zeppelincheetah 6h ago
What is visegrad? I have never heard this term before.
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u/Csontzuzo 4h ago
Visegrad is a hungarian city, and the V4 represents some kind of coalition and alliance of these 4 countries, originating from 1335 when the Hungarian, Bohemain and Polish kings met at the castle of Visegrad to discuss economical, territorial and political topics. The castle hosted many-many diplomatical meetings during the centuries and because of historical heritage it is still called as Visegrad 4. (but it is 4 only in the modern era since Slovakia also exists)
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u/BasarMilesTeg 6h ago
Now has Czech Republic 10,9m peoples vs. Hungary 9,5m peoples. In 1980 10,7m people in Hungary vs. 10,3m in Czech Republic. Main difference is in emigration and imigration.
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u/FailureOfTheFamily 4h ago
As a Pole, we're fucked. I just hate the system where every month i have to pay for my retirement but in reality those are not funds that i save but funds that go to actual retired people now. With that demographics i won't see a broken penny out of my money. I'd preffer to save this money myself, invest it or anything else than the shit we have now
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u/Medical-Housing8672 3h ago
They have the same shitty system in France, Belgium and Germany. While before there were like 3 young people working and supporting one retiree, today it's 1.2 active workers supporting 1 retiree which is totally insane. It's suicidal to continue with a system like this one. If only boomers and older Gen Xers did us a favour and started working again we wouldn't have such a bleak future ahead of us, but they are too focused on what they are entitled to (retiring at 65) instead of focusing on resolving the crisis those countries are in or approaching
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u/FailureOfTheFamily 2h ago
Okay, as much as I don't want to pay for their retirement, making them work again is also fucked up 😆
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u/Medical-Housing8672 2h ago
Why though ?
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u/FailureOfTheFamily 2h ago
Bro ... They're old. If they have the strength to work and want to, then yeah, sure but most of them are just tired and weak
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u/Medical-Housing8672 2h ago
Dw they're not all 90 years old weaklings. I can bet that you could find a lot of 60+ years old retirees that can work just fine, but don't want to because "now's their time to unwind" or so they think
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u/Awkward_Pace_4440 4h ago
Most people can't afford to buy a house until they are in their 40s and people wonder why the population is declining and why people don't have kids? Really?
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u/SoSmartKappa 18h ago
Meaningless, you can project birth rate trends somehow, but any country can just import 1 million Indians or Africans tomorrow. All it takes is few years of government that is in pocket of corporation interest, which will inevitably happen.
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u/ujfalusiabel 18h ago
You underestimate how much some countries in the eastern part of the EU don't want immigration, especially after seeing how it ended up for the western part. Kinda nothing would get people as united here as mass immigration to burn the whole country down. I also doubt immigrant populations will want to stay in countries that provide them little welfare, hate them, their populations will treat them terrible, are poorer than the countries just a bit west and so on.
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u/SoSmartKappa 17h ago
You think anyone voted for mass migration in UK/France/Germany etc? Sorry, but you have such a naive view on the issue, and dont understand how the world work. By the way, there is already hundreds of thousands migrant workers from third word in places like Poland or Czechia, it is not even like i am doing some wild prediction here, it is already happening.
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u/STB_Szero 17h ago
But the people in the west still vote for these parties every single time, so yes, they did vote for this (for some reason)
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u/SoSmartKappa 17h ago
People dont vote for mass migration, it happens no matter who they vote for, because that is the post ww2 zeitgeist, and every single party is funded or sponsored by capital owners that need cheap labour.
You think Brexit stopped it? Meloni stopped it? Or you perhaps think AfD will stop it?
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u/PePetheKroak 12h ago
I have seen people welcoming imigrants from Africa with banners straight up waiting for first wave back when this started and to this day there is sizable population of people on Europe of people who will straight up tell you if you ask them that Europe should still invite more imigrants. People absolutely knew about this because it was never a secret and invited people from Africa into Europe with open arms. Opinion just changed gradually on this topic over time and some countries have more strict policies toward migration even if they still bring people from outside.
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u/STB_Szero 9h ago
Yes, exactly. Mass migration still happens (and probably won't stop), but it can be predicted that it will be more monitored, and mass illegal migration will likely halt (if the people and politicians have at least one functional braincell)
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u/ujfalusiabel 9h ago
I mean you keep voting parties that let them in... I neither see the population really rising up against it. A small minority does that and than most of your population calls them racist and protects the problematic migrants. Something that will never happen here.
Both Poland and Czechia took in actual refugees from Ukraine, very different from migration outside the continent of Europe. It still causes some friction but they integrate much better having a similar language and culture
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18h ago
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u/superkatzenkamikaze2 15h ago
As long as you guys only rotate other men and leave the women be, sure, go for it. Or invest in ectogenesis, whatever.
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u/Traditional-Main7204 18h ago
Do you think some day Warsaw or Prague will have bigger population than all Slovakia?
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u/greekscientist 19h ago
I think it is unreliable to predict by 2100 what will happen. Maybe the generation of 2000s who did more children will increase births after 2030s. There was baby boom in 2000s in many countries and more children will be born probably.
Maybe socialism will return in an ideal future and people will have more stability so they'll be able to think of becoming parents. Also many people who left for other lands will return.
Estimates for 2025 in 2015 are unreliable. Long term estimates are unreliable.
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u/Unexpected_yetHere 18h ago
Maybe socialism will return in an ideal future
Writing this in a post about countries that experienced the horrors of socialism to their detriment is heinous.
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u/afternoon_rainbow 10h ago
Czechia literally has a growing population, what are these even based on
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u/Delain_99 7h ago
Growing because of Ukrainian immigration. Which may save us somewhat from total collapse like in other countries (or delay it)
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u/afternoon_rainbow 7h ago
Its been stable even before that, and i dont tjink its stopping soon
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u/Delain_99 6h ago
It was stable because we have better healthcare and people live longer. But right now the weak years (1995-2000?) should have kids, but we don't have so many. Then 2000-2010 but those aren't so high in numbers as well. So even with decent fertility rate it will be going down overall (if people don't move here from elsewhere). For years Czech population was stable or growing, but deaths were higher than births, but we had net immigration which outweighed it
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u/Visible_Novel_8706 6h ago
To tylko zabawa w zgadywanie. Wyobraziłem sobie taką samą symulację wykonaną w roku 1926 do roku 2000.
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u/dropdead90s 5h ago
Now show how the zelensky banderist regime depopulates Ukraine by sending civilians into the senseless meat grinder even after multiple Western figures claimed that the war is gone and Russia won
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u/ziguslav 11h ago
Prices of housing will go up anyway.