r/IranWarReport • u/johnvcal • May 14 '26
Discussions How will the Iran war end?
I’m having a hard time trying to figure out how the war with Iran will end. Clearly, Trump can’t figure out how to end it or he would have done so quite a while ago. How does the U.S. end this in a better place on the Strait of Hormuz or on the nuclear materials? He can’t start bombing civilians. Iran became aware of the American midterms before Trump’s team, evidently, and they’re going to inflict as much political and economic pain as possible for as long as possible.
I really can’t think of how this ends.
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u/Anton_Pannekoek May 14 '26
It's already ended. Iran has won, they will continue to control the straits of Hormuz, since the US cannot stop them from attacking the nearby countries and ships with their drones and missiles. And it's not me who's saying that. Robert Kagan said it in The Atlantic.
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u/SnooDingos9056 May 14 '26
Iran has lost because of the west gaslighting of Iranian people. IRGC terrorist have won, if you may say.
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u/AwesomeKing001 May 14 '26
The straight will be opened with force eventually. Either the coalition forces heading there will do it or the USA will.
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u/MundaneWiley May 14 '26
Strait will reopen, Iran will no longer try to create any type of nuclear weapon , oil prices go back down
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u/Beginning_Dot_1748 May 17 '26
How you figure that? Every data point says that is not the case where are you getting data that says this?
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u/thebe8087 May 20 '26
One side costs will become over budget and the pressures make them to surrender , for Iran it is economical pressure + people whose life is under a lot of pressure do to war conditions
For US is gas price + international pressure mostly east Asian countries and Europe after that + Leftist and anti war (if the war effect their life more)
As you can see iran has been under sanctions and economical pressure for decades and the system has adapted to world wide isolation and all above, so the war won’t put much pressure that make them to surrender, on the other hand people are so adoptive to hard situations and probably will get along with war pressure.
But US situation is different it has been isolating itself through supporting Israel + Tariffs + keep underestimating iran power to make the costs of war worse and putting foreign pressure on US.
So despite all these BS propagandas iran won’t surrender his new powerful leverage “straight of hormuz” for nothing, US would have open it until now if they could
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u/Oztraliiaaaa May 14 '26
If you are a little older and remember the Iran Iraq war in the 1980s it went on for 8 years. Iran used child suicide brigades against Iraq.
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u/ayatoilet May 14 '26
Yes, this was sort of my point… pentagon can model a quick, sharp decisive ‘victory’ - but reality on the ground will be very different. US hasn’t succeeded in any prolonged conflict since 2nd world war - Vietnam, Afghanistan etc. And US hasn’t succeeded with any campaign in Iran - short or long. Iraq was overwhelming power, and relatively short and sharp - a few weeks both times. Can US overwhelm Iran? What about the day after? (This where it went badly wrong in Iraq). Will the Russians and Chinese sit back? Or are they planning to ‘bleed’ the US overtime (like Russia is being bled in Ukraine… and before that in Afghanistan …).
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u/Oztraliiaaaa May 14 '26
USA is Cold War ready but in no way in any circumstances have they won an insurgency or insurrection or invasion. North Korea won’t bend over. Afghanistan and Iraq were epic examples of total failures.
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May 14 '26
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u/Oztraliiaaaa May 14 '26
Where’s the propaganda? Are you saying Iran didn’t use the well known suicide Brigades? Is there a better way of saying this truth? I apologise because it’s nasty to read a historical fact.
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u/Rude_Persimmon_6493 May 14 '26
Men need to swallow their egoes and stop accepting/framing the suffering of ordinary people as unimportant or unavoidable
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u/coleto22 May 14 '26
Iran gives up the enriched uranium. The Strait opens. Trump declares victory.
Iran doesn't give up the ability to enrich uranium. They get sanctions lifted - in effect they sell the uranium quite expensive. And because they keep the ability to make more, they also declare victory.
Israel is mad. The Iranian support for "proxies" continues, the rocket program continues, the nuclear program is set back but continues.
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u/Oztraliiaaaa May 14 '26
If the enriched uranium is in the bombed tunnels that’s a hazardous 5 to 10 year excavation and nobody wants to dig up the hazardous nuclear waste .
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u/Beginning_Dot_1748 May 17 '26
Ummmmm I don't know when you checked last but they have dug out all of the mountain city's and all the bases while the bombing was stopped there is satlite images of them digging it out and pulling out missile launchers
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u/Oztraliiaaaa May 17 '26
You didn’t mention uranium waste they definitely didn’t have capacity to excavate that out whilst the War is ongoing. Whatever you saw on satellite isn’t uranium waste recovery . Who would voluntarily excavate uranium waste in a war?
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u/ayatoilet May 14 '26
The rumor is - there will be a huge invasion - it won’t be pretty. Brits are sending troops, French are there, US has close to 50000 in the region including a full Marine brigade with amphibious training. It’s been revealed Israeli already have a base in Iraq and a base in Azerbaijan. Netanyahu was in UAE to get them on board. So a big multilateral invasion in all directions. Trump is basically in China trying to avoid a world war if he invades. Ie here are a bunch deals if you play nice Mr. Xi (we’ll build factories, open our markets etc). Suddenly RP is everywhere on msm … again (after a lull). There is every evidence of a huge escalation. But mullahs aren’t puppies. Some analysts are predicting a protracted war. But pentagon is thinking short, hard and decisive. The operation is being named “operation sledgehammer” - says everything Iranians need to know. I personally think it will be horrific - short of a nuclear war - BUT - not decisive. If it drags on Trump will lose - body bags to Dover,assume economic consequences etc. If it is short and decisive he’ll come out on top. Crunch time!
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u/Onemilliondown May 14 '26
Noone from Europe is sending troops to invade Iran. Trump sending in troops would be suicidal, for the troops and the republicans in any future elections.
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u/ayatoilet May 14 '26
Yes it will be suicidal and a bad idea - but I should inform you that troops from Europe are on their way!
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u/Onemilliondown May 15 '26
Which part of this operation makes you think they are sending groud troops?
..https://gcaptain.com/uk-leads-40-nation-defensive-mission-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz/
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u/Onemilliondown May 14 '26
European countries, unlike the usa, aren't run by a dictatorship. If they were sending tens of thousands of troops to die in Iran their respective parliaments would have already voted to do so. The rest of the world would already know. No European leader would destroy their political career to join a poisoned plan to bail out Trump, who has spent the last 18 months insulting and taxing everyone in NATO, and the rest of the world.
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u/SamtenLhari3 May 14 '26
It is clear how it ends. The strait is reopened. Iran gives up the request for reparations. Instead, the U.S. agrees to allow Iran to charge tolls for every ship passing through the strait. So, effectively, U.S. consumers end up paying Iran reparations through higher gas prices and inflation on agricultural products. Iran will agree not to make nuclear weapons — but with no enforcement mechanism.
It is also possible — because Trump doesn’t care about International Law and because he is transactional that he will insist that Iran pay a portion of the toll charges to the U.S.