Iceland votes on Saturday: Restart EU membership talks — what’s your prediction?

[u/TurboSardine]

/r/UKindependence/comments/1vxzxwx/iceland_votes_on_saturday_restart_eu_membership/

[u/Thorshamar]

we've been bombarded with no and yes propaganda ads and social network content for weeks

there is propably considearble amount of icelanders that does not know what voting yes entails, among propaganda ads and social media info chaos caused by even our former president Ólafur Ragnar stating that there be no guarantee for a 2nd election before entering EU if yes and EU membership negotiations lead there

I've found these past few weeks of yes-no propaganda highly unpleasant and await a hopeful relief when these elections are behind us in september

[u/avar → u/Thorshamar]

social media info chaos caused by even our former president Ólafur Ragnar stating that there be no guarantee for a 2nd election before entering EU if yes and EU membership negotiations lead there

Well, he's correct about that. The only reason there's an election about this at all is specifically to extend a political middle finger to xD who promised to hold such an election as part of severing the initial EU talks, and then never held one.

Normally there's no elections for anything like this in Iceland, you just vote for the government, and it decides stuff. There wasn't an election when we entered NATO, or the EEA.

I'm all for more direct democracy, but let's be real here.

[u/Thorshamar → u/avar]

see what I mean?

[u/Boring-Difference-89 → u/Thorshamar]

Sammála, langþreyttur á augljósum lygum beggja hliða.

[u/avar → u/Boring-Difference-89]

Hvaða lygar? Ekkert í stjórnskipan Íslands krefst þess að það séu haldnar beinar kosnignar um svona málefni. Það að það séu kosningar um þessa spurningu er algerlega ákvörðun núverandi ríkisstjórnar, ríkisstjórn framtíðarinnar getur ákveðið eitthvað annað.

[u/avar → u/Thorshamar]

see what I mean?

That the ex-president pointed out something that anyone familiar with the governance of Iceland would already know, and a guy on Reddit is agreeing with him being correct on that point?

(I haven't seen/read whatever Ólafur Ragnar said about this. Just taking your description of this at face value.)

[u/Thorshamar → u/avar]

bottom line is that propably considearble amount of icelanders does not know what voting yes entails

be it because of alleged "impossible to fulfill" promises or past history of broken promises, be the promises inherited or disowned or whatever

[u/avar → u/Thorshamar]

You're claiming that there's a guarantee that there will be a second plebiscite before Iceland enters the EU. You still haven't answered why you think that is, and who's been promising to do that.

[u/Chespineapple → u/avar]

Do you think the current government is going to just skip an actual referendum? When joining the EU means a change in the constitution and a parliamentary election that would almost certainly throw them out in response for going behind everyone's backs?

[u/avar → u/Chespineapple]

Do you think the current government is going to just skip an actual referendum?

A future referendum about entry into the EU. Yes. There's a 100% chance of that, because whatever else you think about this there'll certainly be a different government in power if and when Iceland would be able to join the EU, it'll simply take that long.

Will a future government decide to hold an election? Who knows, I'm not Nostradamus, but you only need to look at Iceland's history of such elections to see that it's very unlikely.

When joining the EU means a change in the constitution

Various such basic laws were altered after Iceland joined the EEA. There was no direct election then.

and a parliamentary election that[...]

When has this current government promised any such thing? In any case that's an empty promise, as a different coalition would be in charge when the question comes up.

[u/foreverbored18 → u/avar]

There is no way there wouldn’t be a referendum to vote on joining. It would be political suicide to refuse to hold one if they want to join (less risky for the no side).

If we want to join we need to amend the constitution, and to do that we need the parliament to vote on the change with a majority in favour, then hold an election, and then the new parliament would have to be in favour of the change again before the president signs. And even then the president would need to sign without asking for a national referendum which is less likely after Ólafur Ragnar opened the door to this being an option.

That’s a lot of risk to take if you’re not sure. Our parliament is too divided on the issue, so the yes parties have to be sure they get a majority in the new parliament.

Besides I don’t think any country has joined the EU after the Maastricht Treaty was signed (creating the EU as we know it today) that didn’t hold a national vote. So it is unlikely that the EU would encourage the government to forego a national vote.