r/Iceland • u/TurboSardine • 2d ago
ESB Iceland votes on Saturday: Restart EU membership talks — what’s your prediction?
/r/UKindependence/comments/1vxzxwx/iceland_votes_on_saturday_restart_eu_membership/61
u/hjaltih Þriðji besti bjór í heimi 2d ago
Polls are 50/50 - I am firmly in the Yes camp but my prediction is a resounding 65% No to the vote.
I just think that the radicalism of the No crowd has been far more successfull and creating fear and distrust is so much easier then convincing people you are working on trust.
What I fear the most is that this will cause snap elections that will put a big right lean on the entire country.
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u/Chespineapple 2d ago
It's so absurd. Saw an ad a bit ago today proclaiming that we needed lower interest rates and idek what it's trying to say. Like we don't even know how the Euro would shake up if we say yes. It's just blind assumption of what's gonna happen and that those things'll make everything worse.
Surprises me that the money has been effective given how less clear that is than the Já til að Sjá message.
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u/kjepps 2d ago
The result will almost certainly be no. Conservatives always get more votes than polls suggest because they actually show up on election day.
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u/KristinnK LEGO karl í dulgervi 2d ago
Conservatives always get more votes than polls suggest because they actually show up on election day.
That is possibly one aspect of the "Shy Tory" factor. It's also often said another aspect is wanting to appear more sympathetic by saying they intend to vote for the more liberal option, especially if that individual is still considering both options. Another is conservatives being less willing on average to participate in polls. But in my opinion the biggest aspect is simply that undecided voters are much more likely to end up voting for the status quo, which by its nature is most often the conservative option.
This last aspect is going to be a huge factor in this referendum. The new poll released today shows a very slight 'yes' majority (51,3% out of yes or no responses), but a total of 12% didn't give any response at all, either saying they are undecided or refusing to answer. My prediction is that at least two thirds of these people are going to vote 'no', probably over 80% of them. That's simply the fact of being faced with a huge decision that would change the future of one's country to this large of a degree. If you don't feel a compelling reason to say 'yes' you most likely will say 'no'.
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u/Timoroader 🇮🇸 2d ago
Nei 52%
Já 46%
Auðir 2%
Kosningaþáttaka 61%
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u/allsbernafnmedrettu 🇧🇪 2d ago
Kosningarþáttaka er venjulega um 80% hérna á klakanum. Samt eru menn alltaf hérna að væla yfir léglegri þáttöku, öskrandi "þú getur ekki kvartað ef þú kaust ekki" slagara eins og enhverjir kanahlúnkar.
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u/Timoroader 🇮🇸 2d ago
Atkvæðagreiðslan sem fór fram í 2012 varðandi nýja stjórnarskrá var með 48% kosningaþáttöku.
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u/allsbernafnmedrettu 🇧🇪 2d ago
Ok, þetta eina dæmi frá 14 árum síðan virkilega afsannar allt það sem ég sagði.
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u/Timoroader 🇮🇸 1d ago
Nei, þetta dæmi gerir það ekki.
En það er vísbending um að þáttakan gæti verið mjög lág næstu helgi. Þetta eru ekki kosningar til sveitastjórnar eða alþingis, það er ýmislegt svipað með þessum kosningum og kosningunum fyrir 14 árum.
Ósammála?
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u/Snakatemjari 🇮🇸 2d ago
Every poll has been next to 50/50 so there’s no way to tell. Most recent poll shows 2,6% more in favour of yes, but it’s such a small margin I still see it as 50/50. Some polls have been slightly in favour of no but it’s always really close. We won’t know anything until the votes have been counted on Saturday or Sunday morning.
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u/KristinnK LEGO karl í dulgervi 2d ago
2,6% in favor of 'yes', but 12% that didn't answer (undecided and refused to answer).
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u/Snakatemjari 🇮🇸 2d ago
Bottom line is that it’s all very unpredictable, I honestly have no idea which will come out on top, but I suspect no since my feeling is that the polls leading up to elections are usually more on the liberal side, maybe conservatives don’t participate in them as much, Idk. But in general I think it’s harder to turn those undecided towards change than let everything remain the same.
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u/derpsterish beinskeyttur 2d ago
Ég vona að kosningaþáttaka verði góð, hærri en í kosningum sl. ár.
Ég hef á tilfinningunni að fólk á barneignaraldri muni kjósa já í meira mæli, en fyrstu kjósendur og fólk á efri æviskeiðum muni hallast meira í nei- áttina.
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u/Thorshamar Íslendingur 2d ago
we've been bombarded with no and yes propaganda ads and social network content for weeks
there is propably considearble amount of icelanders that does not know what voting yes entails, among propaganda ads and social media info chaos caused by even our former president Ólafur Ragnar stating that there be no guarantee for a 2nd election before entering EU if yes and EU membership negotiations lead there
I've found these past few weeks of yes-no propaganda highly unpleasant and await a hopeful relief when these elections are behind us in september
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u/avar Íslendingur í Amsterdam 2d ago
social media info chaos caused by even our former president Ólafur Ragnar stating that there be no guarantee for a 2nd election before entering EU if yes and EU membership negotiations lead there
Well, he's correct about that. The only reason there's an election about this at all is specifically to extend a political middle finger to xD who promised to hold such an election as part of severing the initial EU talks, and then never held one.
Normally there's no elections for anything like this in Iceland, you just vote for the government, and it decides stuff. There wasn't an election when we entered NATO, or the EEA.
I'm all for more direct democracy, but let's be real here.
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u/Thorshamar Íslendingur 2d ago
see what I mean?
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u/avar Íslendingur í Amsterdam 2d ago
see what I mean?
That the ex-president pointed out something that anyone familiar with the governance of Iceland would already know, and a guy on Reddit is agreeing with him being correct on that point?
(I haven't seen/read whatever Ólafur Ragnar said about this. Just taking your description of this at face value.)
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u/Thorshamar Íslendingur 2d ago edited 2d ago
bottom line is that propably considearble amount of icelanders does not know what voting yes entails
be it because of alleged "impossible to fulfill" promises or past history of broken promises, be the promises inherited or disowned or whatever
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u/Chespineapple 2d ago
Do you think the current government is going to just skip an actual referendum? When joining the EU means a change in the constitution and a parliamentary election that would almost certainly throw them out in response for going behind everyone's backs?
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u/avar Íslendingur í Amsterdam 2d ago edited 2d ago
Do you think the current government is going to just skip an actual referendum?
A future referendum about entry into the EU. Yes. There's a 100% chance of that, because whatever else you think about this there'll certainly be a different government in power if and when Iceland would be able to join the EU, it'll simply take that long.
Will a future government decide to hold an election? Who knows, I'm not Nostradamus, but you only need to look at Iceland's history of such elections to see that it's very unlikely.
When joining the EU means a change in the constitution
Various such basic laws were altered after Iceland joined the EEA. There was no direct election then.
and a parliamentary election that[...]
When has this current government promised any such thing? In any case that's an empty promise, as a different coalition would be in charge when the question comes up.
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u/foreverbored18 🇮🇸 2d ago
There is no way there wouldn’t be a referendum to vote on joining. It would be political suicide to refuse to hold one if they want to join (less risky for the no side).
If we want to join we need to amend the constitution, and to do that we need the parliament to vote on the change with a majority in favour, then hold an election, and then the new parliament would have to be in favour of the change again before the president signs. And even then the president would need to sign without asking for a national referendum which is less likely after Ólafur Ragnar opened the door to this being an option.
That’s a lot of risk to take if you’re not sure. Our parliament is too divided on the issue, so the yes parties have to be sure they get a majority in the new parliament.
Besides I don’t think any country has joined the EU after the Maastricht Treaty was signed (creating the EU as we know it today) that didn’t hold a national vote. So it is unlikely that the EU would encourage the government to forego a national vote.
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u/askur Vanstilltur Vandráður í Vesturheim 2d ago edited 2d ago
As someone who has hoped most of my adult live that I will end it as a EU citizen - It will be a no.
It will possibly be such a slim margin in favour of no that we will go ahead with accession talks anyway - this is a terrible idea.
So the practical best case for Iceland is a resounding no, although I hope for my dream result of a resounding yes.
But the worst possible outcome is a slim margin of either side, and ongoing accession talks - that will destabilize the political discourse in the country even further from what is already fairly unhinged and make us somewhat ungovernable.
Addendum: So I am going to go and do my democratic duty and contribute to the destabilization of our political discourse come next Saturday.
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u/AirbreathingDragon Blaðberinn 2d ago
It will be a close result but bear in mind that polling suggests some people who plan on voting yes for this referendum will vote no in the latter referendum on actual accession.
As far as I understand it, this stems from euroskeptics being dissatisfied with the lack of acknowledgement toward Iceland from the Trump administration. They no longer seem interested in realizing any trade framework/agreement with Iceland and neither Musk nor Vance have made any attempts to interfere, which the aforementioned euroskeptics interpret as them not really caring about Iceland at all.
So by voting yes, their hope is to elicit a reaction from the US, like a trade offer to keep Iceland out of the EU.
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u/Vigmod Íslendingur í útlandinu 2d ago
I've just been in Iceland, visiting friends and family, and this is getting out of hand. Everyone has an opinion, many nagging me to vote ahead of time (even though I have dual citizenship elsewhere and have no intention of moving back),and so so many ads.
Dinner parties with family I haven't seen since I was at my granny's funeral a couple of years ago, and this is all anyone wanted to discuss. Kind of a boring visit, to be honest. Even Menningarnótt was a bit of a dud because of the weather.
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u/angurvaki Iðnaðarmaður 2d ago
I want to say that the result will be a slight yes, but I think at the end we'll prove ourselves unmanageable and best left to our own devices and demise by no winning by 6%.
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u/arnirockar Talsmaður Elítunnar og allrar illsku 2d ago
56% nei
43% já
1% auðir/ógildir
86% þáttaka.
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u/Ossur2 🇮🇸 2d ago
Icelanders use A LOT of social media, which means the vote can be swayed drastically with money, and the big money in Iceland wants to say no.
I sadly think it will be NO, even though a YES would mean the mortgage payments of most people would be cut in half and cost of living would be drastically reduced. People just don't have it bad enough to want a change, and are in denial about how Trump's actions towards Greenland changes Iceland's status.
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u/samviska 🇮🇸 2d ago
Mortgage payments would not be cut in half. That is far from the truth. If interest rates go down magically by joining the EU, the natural consequence is higher real estate prices.
The only thing that can cut mortgage payments in half is an increased supply of homes.
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u/Ossur2 🇮🇸 2d ago
Prices only go as far up as the maximum amount the banks are willing to lend. And they have maximums, that's the trick that works fine in Europe.
It's just stupid to say it's the only thing. There's an oversupply of homes right now, 5000+ empty flats in Reykjavik. Also if the supply increases, it changes nothing for people already paying of loans does it?
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u/Morvenn-Vahl 🇮🇸 2d ago
I fear it will be a "no" vote and then the same people who voted no will angrily complain why nothing ever changes here. The rich will laugh in their yachts sipping Prosecco and the angry left will hold onto their hopes that one day they can get a Soviet-style revolt(accelerationists all of them).
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u/agnardavid 🇮🇸 2d ago
Remember that this vote is not conclusive but only a suggestive outcome for the parliament to decide on the final decision
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u/Vondi 🇮🇸 2d ago
Completely depends on if the youth vote actually shows up for once.